Future of United Express
 

Something's gotta give folks. Scope is coming down the pike and so is October 1. False hope, baseless fears, I'm here with my popcorn so bring it on!

Big questions include:
-what will scope limits mean for the 76 seat fleet in a couple months?
-SK said single class 50 seaters may/will see a significant reduction...which ones?
-where tf does the 550&700 fit into all this?

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UA has a furlough provision requiring all 76-seaters be reduced to 70-seaters if certain criteria is met. I’m pretty sure UA said they have the engineering ready to take seats out when this happens.

The exact details of the scope clause will be very important. Particularly the definition of an active airframe

If they all get reduced to 70 seaters, then they won't be as efficient as they are now. I wonder if that will affect the fleet mix

As a guess I think 6 seats out of an ERJ is still going to be far more economically sensible than any mainline airplane on many routes now and well into the future.

We are a cheaper workforce and smaller jets with lower cost per hour of operation. I don’t think UA will be overly concerned if 6 seats are no longer available. Sure it’s not ideal and is 6 seats of lost revenue, but they will still make money if they can fill a 175 up to 70 pax and keep their fleets at same or similar levels

Delta is already doing it on OO 175s and probably other carriers as well.

Obviously as pointed out, all this will be defined by contract language regarding scope when the time comes, I’m not sure what UAs scope demands in regards to airframe numbers etc...

UAX Fleet
 

Seems like a good time and place to remind everyone of this google site. I'm not involved in it and I don't know who runs it, but they do a really good job. I do wish they would add a column for who owns each tail.

https://sites.google.com/site/united...fleet-tracking

How does everyone's July schedule look? Or has it come out yet?

I imagine the 50 seater exclusive regionals are going to see some sort of consolidation. Air whisky and expressjet are the only regionals so far who are downgrading pilots afaik.

There is no way having 7 different regionals for uax makes any sense. Having office staff that is required for 7 regionals vs 2-3 is not economical at all.

Whiskey just cancelled about 2/3 of their downgrades.

Keep an eye out on July 1st

Care to share more?

that is fantastic news!

Take it with a grain of salt...I’ve heard that UA is contractually obligated with their regionals to give them 90 days notice on what they’ll be flying. July 1st is roughly 90 days from October 1st. Also that is about the same time furlough notices will probably be going out as well. I’m no fortune teller but if I had to guess we’ll find out sometime in July about the future of UAX.

If they plan well they can reduce seats and increase revenue by reducing economy seats and increasing premium seats.

I think you're on the right track here, except to say that contracts have for the most part been scrambled recently. They'll have to come up with a longer term solution though given that they are about to furlough their own people.

A crescent wrench should suffice

Actually, the other poster was correct. In the phrase "down the pike", pike is short for turnpike. It refers to something happening in the future, like a car coming towards you on a highway or turnpike.
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It seems like Skywest is just absolutely crushing during all this. I know they are big but outsized even for them. Any ideas why?

Same as always, by undercutting other carriers, benefiting from pattern bargaining and sacrifices by other union pilot groups, and by working hard to put other carriers out of business and their pilots on the street. ohh, and they be practically mainline.

Pattern bargaining?

One work group in an industry negotiates gains, and successive work groups build off of that as a baseline. For example, UA's MEC gets a rate or quality of life point negotiated, and then DL goes for UA+ in their round.

UAW has a quick primer: https://uaw.org/pattern-bargaining/

Literally every union and non union shop does pattern bargaining. UA and DL do it all the time. Not somethhing to hold against SkyWest.

At least SkyWest didn't sign a concessionary contract to take planes from Envoy like ALPA did at PSA.

Considering that SkyWest uses being non-union as a selling point to recruits, it is fair to hold taking advantage of union pattern bargaining against them. St. George isn't giving their workers money out of the kindness of their hearts.

That ALPA pin isn't just a shiny piece of metal. It represents 90 years of hard fought gains for this profession.

Communist much? How about doing the job that was mutually agreed upon at the point of hire. Like yes I will do that job for that amount. Not, well I still do the same amount of work but you owe me more! SKYW grew to be the biggest out of free market principles. It’s unfortunate other regionals are in tight spots but it’s still the free market. Survival of the fittest! No one owes you anything. Work hard and get ahead. Don’t expect someone else to give you anything.
Unions represent 90 yrs of pitting employees against employers. How about you get in the same boat and mutually benefit. Your company doesn’t exist to offer you employment and a paycheck. Your company is in business to make a profit. They profit, you profit! Doubt my logic. Explain why SKYW is dominating the regional market right now. Numbers talk. Complaining about how the evil corporate bad man is keeping you down hasn’t done jack to help your situation.
Yes sir. I will fly for you if you offer me that amount.
Don’t you remember the agreement when you accepted the job.
Put your hands back in your pocket!

Your agreement with Skywest is a contract that benefits from unions hard work. In order to attract talent, they had to offer working conditions that were industry standard. The standard was fought for and created in large part by unions.

Your contract is a union contract. But you didn't have to work for it, pay for it, and you won't have to lose your job for it.

Spoken like a true Gen Z'er fresh out of Riddle.

spoken like someone who doesn't know the history of the American labor movement. It's scary how effectively brainwashed people are into acting against their own interests. Unions are an important weight in the balance of capitalism's market forces, and it makes the economy stronger in the long run.

anyone who thinks believing in unions is tantamount to communism is an idiot.

So what's your opinion on ALPA airlines voting in concessionary contracts to take airplanes from other carriers for growth? That kind of pattern bargaining is like, totally ok, but only because they are fellow union bros?

I'm actually a hardcore pro-union guy, but it's sad seeing all of the new guys in this industry get brainwashed by ALPA. ALPA has accomplished very little when it comes to improving pilot compensation and career stability in the past four decades. They have a laundry list of pay scale losses, pension program losses, and scope erosions that outweigh any "hard fought gains" they may have had on their resume at one time. Merger policy for seniority integration is also fairly weak.

Until ALPA mainline and regional pilots stand side by side and demand 1 contract and 1 seniority list for all pilots, few will treat them like the "super union" that they self-proclaim to be.

Hahaha! I have to thank you for that one. Zing!

How does it go? If ignorance is bliss, you must be down right euphoric.....

I often see the popular opinion that PSA’s contract was concessionary. It gave us SAP. The absolute best quality of life tool in the entire industry, bar none. And it gave us our critical pay language which at the time (pre-company reserve grid manipulation and pre-arbitration) allowed line-holding pilots to regularly credit 125-145 hours /month. Effectively making our airline some of the highest paid regional pilots anywhere at that time. But hey, let’s not have details that matter get in the way.

Regarding SkyWest, they are a scourge to unionized labor. You don’t really even have a contract per se. Can’t your company change your compensation without it even going to the pilots for a vote?

Getting schedule flexibility and premium pay rules in exchange for lower pay rates and more jets from another carrier is not leading the industry forward. When the **** hits the fan, the premium pay dries up, and the good schedules go away, that still leaves you with the lower pay rates. And nothing else to show for it. Spin it how ever you want, PSA took concessions.

This sounds like some mindless ALPA rhetoric being regurgitated without a fact check. SkyWest has a legally recognized pilot agreement. Any reduction in pay rates must go to a vote.

I wonder what’s going to happen to Mesa through all of this? United loves them. They can be so proud that they have ALPA on the property. It has done very little for them.

It's no coincidence that four decades coincides with deregulation. That was the whole point, to break the non-competitive entitlement of established airlines, and that included the entitlement of their unions.


It will have to happen at mainline, regionals (by design) have no leverage.

But it's a very steep uphill battle... mainline pilots who came from regionals sympathize, but after slogging our way up the ladder we're not in any mood to make concessions so other people don't have to pay dues. I don't mind if you somehow skip your dues, as long as I'm not the one paying for it (I already paid). Make no mistake, any move to bring regional flying -in-house would require heavy concessions on the part of major pilots.

Major pilots who didn't come from regionals have no sympathy at all.

I heard United didn't like them bc of performance metrics...hard to say who they do or don't like. Although I'm most inclined to think it will come down to who can fly for the cheapest.

No coincidence, correct, however SWA seems to have 4 decades of consistent, measurable contract improvements in the same time period, which is also no coincidence. SWA has guppy captains earning what legacy wide-body captains do without having to wait 25-30 years to get to it.

Agreed, but it will never happen because of what you say below.

It would be an epic uphill battle, but the amount of job security it would provide would be significant. In situations like this Wu-Flu scenario the guys getting furloughed would be the new fresh-out-of-flight-instructing, small-jet-driving, pilot at the bottom who are less likely to have kids, less likely to have a house payment, more likely to still be living in mom's basement, etc instead of the guys right now who are about to get dumped from mainline who are now in their late 30s, their 40s, or older who are more likely to have kids in school, mortgages, debt incurred from jumping from regional to mainline, etc etc.

As for people not paying dues, for the most part every kid getting hired at XYZ regional has paid some dues to get there, even if their legacy-captain parent paid for their ratings, they've still busted their butt and put in the work. Do their dues outweigh yours or mine? probably not, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't make this career better for pilots.

Which is why major pilots who did pay dues ought to educate these direct entry major pilots (but won't) and fixing this system would fix the apathy/ego problem as well (idealistic scenario, but unrealistic).

But as you said, few mainline pilots have a desire to fix the issue if it will cost them a single cent to extend the ladder to help out the guys below them or to stand in solidarity with them. And because unions without solidarity are weak, that tells you all you need to know about ALPA. The only people with the power to change the way it works, have already "gotten theirs," so they won't lift a finger.

Ultimately I'm wasting my keystrokes here, as this industry will continue to eat its young until there are no young left before it considers a change.

Unique business model at the time (since copied), and they were well-prepared to grow post de-regulation because they were already up and operating.

Their model took off, and they capitalized after every down-turn so they could never plausibly ask their pilots for concessions (for a long time their corporate culture would have made that unpalatable anyway).

But I remember when SWA was not the preferred career-destination, that came about after 9/11 when the big boys went BK or suffered heavy concessions. Last man standing.

SWA is the poster-child for why de-regulation was a success.