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Future of regionals?

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Old 07-28-2020 | 05:33 PM
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Default Future of regionals?

https://airwaysmag.com/industry/the-...onal-airlines/

A few opinions...

One excerpt:

Regional airlines face negative effects of changes in consumer behavior exacerbated by COVID-19. Madhu Unnikrishnan, Editor Airline Weekly notes that in the United States “we are hearing that people now say they’d rather drive 3-5 hours than fly. Whether that lasts remains to be seen, but if airfares do eventually rise, people may be more likely to drive a few hours to a hub rather than take a short connecting flight. Regional airlines probably have a tough future ahead of them.”
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Old 07-28-2020 | 05:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
They say that, and it's somewhat true. But I doubt people are going to drive 5 hours ALB - NYC and pay the outrageous parking fees.
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Old 07-28-2020 | 05:57 PM
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Maybe, maybe not. The article is long on opinions, but pretty short on actual data.
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Old 07-28-2020 | 05:59 PM
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The issue comes when this thing lasts so long that people's habits permanently change. Plus if the whole AOC green deal anti-airline thing takes hold under Biden, then things could really get bad for us. I may have to go back to hooking.
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Old 07-28-2020 | 06:12 PM
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Originally Posted by bradthepilot
Maybe, maybe not. The article is long on opinions, but pretty short on actual data.
Foretelling the future has always been like that...
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Old 07-28-2020 | 06:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
Foretelling the future has always been like that...
Agreed.

That's a big part of the reason I tend to ignore any and all such things, and try really hard to avoid making predictions myself, unless there is actual data to support such a conclusion.
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Old 07-28-2020 | 06:34 PM
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Originally Posted by bradthepilot
Agreed.

That's a big part of the reason I tend to ignore any and all such things, and try really hard to avoid making predictions myself, unless there is actual data to support such a conclusion.
yet it had some interesting data I had been unaware of:

These headwinds have resulted in severe financial losses, downsizing, multiple trips to the bankruptcy courts, and liquidations. In recent years, the overall departure numbers of these regional airlines declined from a 2007 peak of 5.14 million to 3.86 million in 2018.=10pt =10pt
a loss of 1.28 million (from 5.14 million) departures during a period when air travel was growing is surprising to me. Clearly, some of that may be attributed to larger regional jets, but even so...
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Old 07-28-2020 | 06:56 PM
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Originally Posted by JediCheese
They say that, and it's somewhat true. But I doubt people are going to drive 5 hours ALB - NYC and pay the outrageous parking fees.
That's not a great example because that route is reasonably well served by Amtrak. Look at the huge number of Canadians who cross the border to fly out of Burlington.

This environment is going to lead to ruthless revenue management. Anything that isn't consistently profitable or subsided is going to get cut. 5 flights per day from Des Moines to Chicago on both American and United? Fahget about it.
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Old 07-28-2020 | 07:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
a loss of 1.28 million (from 5.14 million) departures during a period when air travel was growing is surprising to me. Clearly, some of that may be attributed to larger regional jets, but even so...
Less RJ departures, maybe, but I bet RJs flew many more miles. Before Covid, more of my LGA and JFK flights were of the 800-1200 mile variety than the 200-400 mile variety. JFK-DFW, JFK-ORD, LGA-STL, NYC-JAX... these were common 900 routes.
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Old 07-29-2020 | 02:19 AM
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Worst part is the future of years of no
base movements, commuting to reserve, no upgrades, and crappy schedules until some movement returns. With no flying I wonder how long it will take for descent movement to come back. Yes retirements are still happening but airlines are downsizing so the ratio of pilots and flying won’t change much.
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