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-   -   50 seat contraction (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/regional/135639-50-seat-contraction.html)

TransWorld 11-19-2021 09:03 PM

Agreed there are a few with every regional that are unhireable at any other regional, LCC, or major. Not wanting to commute, skeletons in the closet, etc. But most will get on with another carrier when push comes to shove. This is an amazing time. I cannot recall anything like it in the last half a century, since the dawn of the jet age.

ZeroTT 11-20-2021 02:50 AM


Originally Posted by TransWorld (Post 3325154)
I cannot recall anything like it in the last half a century, since the dawn of the jet age.

just for giggles, there was a time in the 60’s when the majors were hiring guys with wet commercials. Like 250 hr straight to the cockpit of a jet… course it was sitting sideways

Hedley 11-20-2021 04:54 AM


Originally Posted by John Carr (Post 3325153)
It was years ago that I left.

But I still know people, that know people at one of those carriers. There were many who simply didn't/weren't able to move on. Many, for obvious reasons, un-hirable or simply didn't want to put in the work And that's on them....

On a side note, it's comical that the "contraction" of 50 seats jets (in this case) ISN'T due to their aged out airframes, inefficiency, level of discomfort/customer dissatisfaction, what have you....

....it's a lack of pilots.

There is definitely a lack of pilots wanting to enter the field. Some don’t want to do the work, some aren’t willing to put in the time it takes to get to a career company, while others won’t do it without a guaranteed outcome or defined timeframe. That is a problem, however the contraction of the 50 seat aircraft is also largely influenced by consumer demand and scope. Managers like Kirby would love to retire all of the 50 seaters and replace them with brand new 175’s and mainline aircraft where appropriate, but they can’t. The decision for the industry to shrink the 50 seaters is just as much influenced by scope, an aging fleet with no replacements, and customer complaints about a garbage product as it is a shortage of pilots. With increasing demand and limited airport capacity, the only way to meet that demand is with larger aircraft. Being that scope is maxed out, as gauge increases, the legacies grow and the regionals shrink.

flightlessbirds 11-20-2021 05:54 AM

Kirby is blaming the pilots rather than accept the consequences of his decision to not buy a SNB fleet. That unlocks the scope everyone says he wants. Sure he wants it, but only if someone else is paying for it.

ZeroTT 11-20-2021 06:04 AM


Originally Posted by flightlessbirds (Post 3325218)
Kirby is blaming the pilots rather than accept the consequences of his decision to not buy a SNB fleet. That unlocks the scope everyone says he wants. Sure he wants it, but only if someone else is paying for it.

true true unrelated

they can’t staff the planes they have right now so the least profitable routes get triaged

and yes he could fill more 76 seaters… but not from MLU-IAH

Hedley 11-20-2021 06:10 AM


Originally Posted by flightlessbirds (Post 3325218)
Kirby is blaming the pilots rather than accept the consequences of his decision to not buy a SNB fleet. That unlocks the scope everyone says he wants. Sure he wants it, but only if someone else is paying for it.

I thought for sure that he would follow Delta’s lead with the A220 coming out of the pandemic. It would have offered a great product for small to medium markets, given UAX up to 70 more 175’s, and facilitated the elimination of the single class 50 seaters. The brand would be greatly improved. He went a different route. Instead of a SNB, he ordered hundreds of max/neo’s, got no additional 175’s, and the single class 50 seaters are still going to be mostly phased out. I’m glad that the United pilots dug in their heels on scope. It forced Kirby’s hand and it turns out that he picked higher paying aircraft over a SNB. I guess time will tell which company picked the right path.

flightlessbirds 11-20-2021 06:23 AM


Originally Posted by Hedley (Post 3325230)
I thought for sure that he would follow Delta’s lead with the A220 coming out of the pandemic. It would have offered a great product for small to medium markets, given UAX up to 70 more 175’s, and facilitated the elimination of the single class 50 seaters. The brand would be greatly improved. He went a different route. Instead of a SNB, he ordered hundreds of max/neo’s, got no additional 175’s, and the single class 50 seaters are still going to be mostly phased out. I’m glad that the United pilots dug in their heels on scope. It forced Kirby’s hand and it turns out that he picked higher paying aircraft over a SNB. I guess time will tell which company picked the right path.

Agreed. I hope it works well. Though UA (and many others) has had history of doing poorly when they allow their feed to atrophy.

One of the things Kirby did very well when he came from AA that really put UA back in the game as OM was leading the company was to dramatically expand the network with all those old 50 seaters over the pretty strenuous market/wall street and customer objections. I truly hope that this currrent upgauging results in continued improved connectivity and is not just being driven by a CASM - only perspective. UAs strength is their network. Shrinkage in domestic network connectivity isn't what I'd be betting on out of the pandemic.

TFAYD 11-20-2021 08:09 AM


Originally Posted by Hedley (Post 3325230)
I thought for sure that he would follow Delta’s lead with the A220 coming out of the pandemic. It would have offered a great product for small to medium markets, given UAX up to 70 more 175’s, and facilitated the elimination of the single class 50 seaters. The brand would be greatly improved. He went a different route. Instead of a SNB, he ordered hundreds of max/neo’s, got no additional 175’s, and the single class 50 seaters are still going to be mostly phased out. I’m glad that the United pilots dug in their heels on scope. It forced Kirby’s hand and it turns out that he picked higher paying aircraft over a SNB. I guess time will tell which company picked the right path.

we will never find out but I bet he got the MAX for less than he would have gotten the 220. I wouldn’t be surprised if the cost per ASM are a lot lower on the MAX with low cost of capital, fleet commonality etc. but offer a lot more flexibility.

TransWorld 11-20-2021 09:52 AM


Originally Posted by ZeroTT (Post 3325179)
just for giggles, there was a time in the 60’s when the majors were hiring guys with wet commercials. Like 250 hr straight to the cockpit of a jet… course it was sitting sideways

Yep, and more than half a century ago. Even before that, the jump seat was used for training and observing. Simulator, what’s a simulator? They did not exist.

My first time in a simulator was in the late 1960s.

John Carr 11-20-2021 10:05 AM


Originally Posted by Hedley (Post 3325198)
There is definitely a lack of pilots wanting to enter the field. Some don’t want to do the work, some aren’t willing to put in the time it takes to get to a career company, while others won’t do it without a guaranteed outcome or defined timeframe. That is a problem, however the contraction of the 50 seat aircraft is also largely influenced by consumer demand and scope. Managers like Kirby would love to retire all of the 50 seaters and replace them with brand new 175’s and mainline aircraft where appropriate, but they can’t. The decision for the industry to shrink the 50 seaters is just as much influenced by scope, an aging fleet with no replacements, and customer complaints about a garbage product as it is a shortage of pilots. With increasing demand and limited airport capacity, the only way to meet that demand is with larger aircraft. Being that scope is maxed out, as gauge increases, the legacies grow and the regionals shrink.

Yep, well aware of all that.......:rolleyes:

I guess I should have clarified and included "in this case, Kirby is blaming it on...."

Or, what the guy below say VVVVVVVV


Originally Posted by flightlessbirds (Post 3325218)
Kirby is blaming the pilots rather than accept the consequences of his decision to not buy a SNB fleet. That unlocks the scope everyone says he wants. Sure he wants it, but only if someone else is paying for it.


Originally Posted by ZeroTT (Post 3325227)
true true unrelated

they can’t staff the planes they have right now so the least profitable routes get triaged

and yes he could fill more 76 seaters… but not from MLU-IAH

True, as a great example.

There were a few places where only the 50 seater made sense and could get in/out of. And I believe the marketing/revenue department exploited the crap out of those markets fare wise.


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