Airline Pilot Central Forums - Regional pilot numbers

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Cleared4appch (Post 3607219)

Also, another thing I and myself have noticed over the years, is that kids don’t really have an interest in aviation as much as previous generations did. They would rather be pretend pilots on Microsoft flight sim and other gaming platforms and don’t value a pilot career as much.

That squares with the observation that fewer teens are interested in driving, as well. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...R--Fu-DmOw6GXg

Though i'm sure most will do it eventually out of necessity, unlike flying.

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyinCat (Post 3607672)

Lol I just realized that I put ‘I and myself’ in that paragraph. Meant to type ‘myself and others’. Didn’t get much sleep the night before. That probably played a part. Or maybe it was autocorrect, idk.

But that’s interesting about the driving thing and teens losing interest in it. I’m honestly surprised and had no idea that was a trend developing.

Quote:

Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 3607177)

The "historical" seven-year recession cycle came due in 2014... they've been saying it's right around the corner, any day now for the last nine years :rolleyes:

The old paradigm is broken, I don't pretend to know what the new one is and I'm not saying recessions won't happen, but covid and the red army in a ground war in Europe haven't quite triggered one yet.

We already *got* higher fuel prices.

Also travel is thriving even as other consumer spending sectors slow down a bit. Looks like pent-up demand and new travel habits will get us through this cycke at least.

I have as much PTSD from industry cycles as the next Lost Gen, but rationally I think we might be OK on this one at least.

Age 67 might allow the system to stabilize long enough for the majors to do what they should have done 15 years ago... establish ab initio pipelines which they can control. I think there are plenty of folks who would love to be airline pilots if they can simply apply, show up, and attend training without worrying about tuition, loans, collateral, and top ramen.

Do you really think this is an issue when we have ATP qualified pilots on this website who are having to wait as much as half a year before they can get a class date at the regionals?

Quote:

Originally Posted by b3181981 (Post 3607718)

Do you really think this is an issue when we have ATP qualified pilots on this website who are having to wait as much as half a year before they can get a class date at the regionals?

Age 67 will slow hiring at mainline for a short time. Hopefully long enough to get upgrade qualified FOs in the pipeline and slow captain attrition at the regionals.

Quote:

Originally Posted by pangolin (Post 3607746)

Age 67 will slow hiring at mainline for a short time. Hopefully long enough to get upgrade qualified FOs in the pipeline and slow captain attrition at the regionals.

Won’t work. The de facto hiring freeze now at the regionals means that the majors will be hiring not only regional CAs but FOs who are even vaguely close to upgrading. Which will ultimately leave the regionals with a huge gap that will eat up those two years. The newbie zero 121 time FOs eventually hired are going to take at least two years to get upgrade eligible considering training time, vacations, etc. Not to mention a whole lot of major pilots aren’t going to wait to 67 to retire. Especially after a few decades of maxed out 401k contributions. It’s not just the $320-350 even a NB CA will be getting, it’s the 16-17% DC too. By that time they’ll have all their toys bought and kids out of college and will be looking to play with those toys and their grandchildren.

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyinCat (Post 3607672)

If mommy and daddy will quit chauffeuring them around and kick them out of their basement….my parents could not afford to help me after I graduated high school.

Quote:

Originally Posted by b3181981 (Post 3607718)

Do you really think this is an issue when we have ATP qualified pilots on this website who are having to wait as much as half a year before they can get a class date at the regionals?

this guy gets it

Quote:

Originally Posted by WarniWarni (Post 3608204)

this guy gets it

The current regional CA shortage is only the most limiting part of the supply chain. Don’t make the mistake of thinking it is the ONLY constraint, just because people are backing up behind it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Excargodog (Post 3609513)

The current regional CA shortage is only the most limiting part of the supply chain. Don’t make the mistake of thinking it is the ONLY constraint, just because people are backing up behind it.

It’ll ripple. If the ca shortage gets cured rve newhire hiring will start anew and we will run out if this fast.

Quote:

Originally Posted by b3181981 (Post 3607718)

Do you really think this is an issue when we have ATP qualified pilots on this website who are having to wait as much as half a year before they can get a class date at the regionals?

If you have an ATP you can probably get a job in ACMI or several LCC's, even with low time.