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Age 67 saves the regionals. If mainline hiring will slow then pilots will upgrade at the regionals. It’s not a pilot shortage. It’s a ca shortage.
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Originally Posted by pangolin
(Post 3600160)
Age 67 saves the regionals. If mainline hiring will slow then pilots will upgrade at the regionals. It’s not a pilot shortage. It’s a ca shortage.
It’s like being behind a bunch of cars at a stoplight. It turns green and it seems to take forever before the car in front of you starts to move, and the light will turn red long before you make it to the intersection. Two more years for the hardy souls who want to keep making money despite having $3-4 million in a 401k and their homes and toys already paid for just won’t be enough to get people through that stop light. |
Originally Posted by pangolin
(Post 3600160)
Age 67 saves the regionals. If mainline hiring will slow then pilots will upgrade at the regionals. It’s not a pilot shortage. It’s a ca shortage.
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Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 3600268)
Doubtful. 50 seaters can’t even afford to pay current wages, the CASM is too high. It’ll keep up only long enough for the legacy to get enough A220s to replace the flying, albeit at far lower frequency. Which fix will then gradually move up to the 70 and 76 seaters. Nor will that fix the CA shortage - not with regional CAs continuing to be hired and regional FOs with any 121 time at all being able to go to ULCCs where they’ll gain both hours and $$ faster than at a regional. And a three year stoppage in retirements won’t fix that. It’s a queuing problem.
Piedmont operates 50 seaters and is unlikely to fail with AA subsidizing them and relying on their feed. Although Envoy is slowly parking their E145s and transferring some to Piedmont, so it could happen—when AA is ready. Endeavor still flies CRJ 200s, I can see those being parked as Endeavor shrinks. SkyWest still flies CRJ 200s, not sure for which partners, but they are big enough to survive when no one wants to fly on the 200s anymore. Mandatory upgrades don’t seem to have helped them. It will be interesting to watch what happens. |
Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 3600268)
Doubtful. 50 seaters can’t even afford to pay current wages, the CASM is too high. It’ll keep up only long enough for the legacy to get enough A220s to replace the flying, albeit at far lower frequency. Which fix will then gradually move up to the 70 and 76 seaters. Nor will that fix the CA shortage - not with regional CAs continuing to be hired and regional FOs with any 121 time at all being able to go to ULCCs where they’ll gain both hours and $$ faster than at a regional. And a three year stoppage in retirements won’t fix that. It’s a queuing problem.
It’s like being behind a bunch of cars at a stoplight. It turns green and it seems to take forever before the car in front of you starts to move, and the light will turn red long before you make it to the intersection. Two more years for the hardy souls who want to keep making money despite having $3-4 million in a 401k and their homes and toys already paid for just won’t be enough to get people through that stop light. What will they do to keep an FO? How will these companies grow? |
Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 3600268)
Doubtful. 50 seaters can’t even afford to pay current wages, the CASM is too high. It’ll keep up only long enough for the legacy to get enough A220s to replace the flying, albeit at far lower frequency. Which fix will then gradually move up to the 70 and 76 seaters. Nor will that fix the CA shortage - not with regional CAs continuing to be hired and regional FOs with any 121 time at all being able to go to ULCCs where they’ll gain both hours and $$ faster than at a regional. And a three year stoppage in retirements won’t fix that. It’s a queuing problem.
It’s like being behind a bunch of cars at a stoplight. It turns green and it seems to take forever before the car in front of you starts to move, and the light will turn red long before you make it to the intersection. Two more years for the hardy souls who want to keep making money despite having $3-4 million in a 401k and their homes and toys already paid for just won’t be enough to get people through that stop light. |
Originally Posted by Ravenwing
(Post 3600463)
The 50 seaters are primarily being operated for United—Air Wisconsin, GoJet, and Commutair—and United seems to be willing to subsidize the increased labor costs at least short term. They even bailed out Mesa. Perhaps United is trying to keep them going for a couple more years until they can cover the flying themselves?
Piedmont operates 50 seaters and is unlikely to fail with AA subsidizing them and relying on their feed. Although Envoy is slowly parking their E145s and transferring some to Piedmont, so it could happen—when AA is ready. Endeavor still flies CRJ 200s, I can see those being parked as Endeavor shrinks. SkyWest still flies CRJ 200s, not sure for which partners, but they are big enough to survive when no one wants to fly on the 200s anymore. Mandatory upgrades don’t seem to have helped them. It will be interesting to watch what happens. Airlines measure cost efficiency using a metric called CASM, or cost per available seat mile. This unit cost measurement shows the cost for one seat to fly one mile. When a regional airline flies a 50-seat plane 250 miles, they generate 50 x 250, or 12,500 available seat miles (ASMs). Compare this to a low-cost airline flying a 180-seat plane on the same length route. They would generate 180 x 250, or 45,000 ASMs. Both airlines use two pilots, and while the bigger plane burns more fuel, it does not burn 3.6 times more fuel, the difference in seats. Every time any cost for the regional increases, they spread this over a smaller ASM base and it affects their overall cost structure in a more substantial way than the bigger airlines. That’s why the regionals are always passionate about keeping their costs low, but in today’s inflationary economy this is challenging them. Low-Cost Airlines And Busses Are Both Growing QuicklyThe U.S. low-cost industry, led by airlines like Spirit, JetBlue, Allegiant, and Frontier, are growing at a much faster rate that than the higher-cost “big four” airlines. As these airlines grow, a larger percentage of the population gets access to low fares and more nonstop service. This growth makes the product that the regional airlines offer less desirable, due to its higher cost for consumers and almost mandatory connecting nature of its services. As the LCCs grow, the regionals will shrink.On shorter trips, say 150 miles or less, buses are starting to become a more economic and desirable way to feed a big airline hub. One company, Landline, is already working with several airlines to provide this service. Customers can check-in at their small city, check their bags, and ride on the bus in a comfortable, wi fi equipped cabin. When they arrive at the airline hub, their bags are connected and in some cases they will enter the airport through a gate into a secure concourse. These buses could be changed to a new, electric bus to make this service more sustainable years, if not decades, before electric airplanes could do this. As buses replace shorter trips and LCCs take more small-city service with lower fares and nonstop service, the value of the regional feed shrinks. |
Originally Posted by Ravenwing
(Post 3600463)
The 50 seaters are primarily being operated for United—Air Wisconsin, GoJet, and Commutair.
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Originally Posted by Brickfire
(Post 3600493)
AW is flying for American
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Originally Posted by Ravenwing
(Post 3600515)
I remembered AW flopped between United and American, I guess I forgot they ended up with American. It appears American has been reluctant to pay higher costs do to pilot wages judging by Mesa’s termination of their contract with American. Yet American was the first to raise pilot wages at their wholly owned carriers. I understand American relies heavily on their regional fleet. American’s priority is likely to remain their wholly owned carriers and I suspect they would let Air Wisconsin flounder. I think I heard Air Wisconsin has extremely wealthy owners who can handle a loss for awhile.
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