That is my perspective. Your questions are good.

a certain percentage will be coming from other majors, acmi, military, corporate, etc. Its a decent bet that a regional or 2 disappears as the musical chairs continue.

Military is at a near all time low just because the military cut back their own numbers for a couple of decades now. And while second tier majors (AS, B6,NK, F9, and increasingly even SWA) continue to lose people to the Big Three, they are largely backfilling those losses from the regionals. In the end, majors can afford to hire low time FOs because they have plenty of people qualified to upgrade (although even they have open CA vacancies at less popular bases) while the regionals don’t need more zero 121 time FOs until they can get a handle on their CA losses.

Barring a recession, I’m not sure any regional is safe. Best course seems to be fly your @$$ off if you have the opportunity and grab the first major seniority number you can get, then fly your @$$ off there until you have the experience to get the seniority number from the place you really want to go. If the music stops before you get there, at least you’ll have a seniority number that will eventually be worth something. Not so if your regional goes tango uniform.

Just a guess but Envoy, PSA/Piedmont, Endeavor, Republic, Skywest, Mesa.

The regionals survive because their FFD customer keeps paying the bills. All depends whether they think it’s good value compared to other options. Changes could happen abruptly as I doubt any regional is meeting its contractual targets currently.

Non-wo 50 seat carriers probably the worst bet

We’re all hoping so. It’s too bad it’s taking so long.

Horizon?
…….

gojet has about half their fleet parked rn, they'll prob be the first to go imo. Maybe air whiskey next

My thoughts as well. Wouldn’t be feeling too cozy at either of these.

Hopefully, as soon as United adds capacity to replace Gojet, it'll be just a painful memory. And Aviate will leave hundreds of pilots without their promised flow, and another generation of pilots will learn that all flow is fraud.