Pangolin is right, a major has 1000 (max) retiring per year and they are able to train 2000. The airlines are absolutely replacing the covid early outs and catching up with retirements. The hiring will not be this crazy 2 years from now. Legacy Airline jobs will be harder to come by. Let's hope we get these contracts hammered out before that happens and we lose any shred of leverage currently held.

i disagree. Look at the order books for new narrow bodies at the majors. Then look at those at the regionals.

https://i.ibb.co/NNgmXx1/E504-F7-FA-...AB285-F4-D.jpg

Most current hiring at legacies only covers their incentivized early retirements for COVID.

The majors will need to replace their FUTURE retirees and staff those new aircraft while the ULCCs (including all the new kids on the block) and LCCs continue their own expansions. And the regionals have already nearly exhausted the DEC supply.

All those orders are not all growth. A lot are to replace aging fleets. Think about all the 757 and 767 delta and United are going to retire in the next 5ish years. They also have older 320 and 737 they are probably looking to replace by the time these narrow bodies roll in.

Read their information for investors. Yeah, they have some old aircraft, but not nearly as many as they did before they trimmed their fleets during COVID. BUT MUCH IS FOR EXPANSION.

For the ULCCs and new majors like Breeze, it’s entirely expansion. Do some research.

United 200 aircraft order last year is not to expand by 200 aircraft more than half is to replace aging aircraft. By the time those planes come in in 5-10 years they will have plenty to retire.

Every fo you upgrade to ca IS more fo flying allowing more FOs to upgrade. Every fo isn’t starting at zero. It’s going to take some time to recover but it’s not a negative death spiral.

No. Every FO you upgrade to CA is more fo flying hours ONCE THEY HAVE PAID OO BACK FOR THE HOURS IT TOOK THEM TO UPGRADE. If they upgrade after 1000 SIC hours at OO they won’t pay the SIC math model back until they have flown 1000 hours with an OO SIC at their side. If they stay in excess of that, their contribution can grow FO flying. if they leave before that, they are a net loss to the system.


. Nope. But the vast majority do. And the vast majority of FOs who depart OO prior to upgrade never come back to become CAs for OO to be able to benefit in terms of upgrade eligibility to payback the experience invested in them.

If you have more FOs than CAs, it’s a pretty good indicator a death spiral is already underway. Not a guarantee, but a pretty good indicator.

Another FO that upgrades is now just a Captain with his apps out…. Its a never ending cycle. The question is where do you get on and off the “lazy river” at the water park…

An interesting thought experiment is "Imagine the regional industry is stable then transitions to unsustainable pilot losses. What would that look like?"

Another thought experiment "If the regional model of February 2019 is not sustainable, is there a smaller model that is?" IE, how many ASM/year can be sold sustainably paying current labor rates and how many airframes does that translate to." If you assume the US can support, say two hundred 76-seat jets, what does that look like?

I would say no matter your experience, if you get the type rating you get the type rating and that’s the end of it.