Best to not pay attention to this stuff, might as well read tea leaves

Just keep keeping on, remember you work for YOU, always keep on going, and it’ll all work out

Based on all this kinda talk I first started out at a “bad time”, I didn’t really know or care as there was a 0% chance anyone could have stopped my from getting into the industry. And I was too busy, well flying and living life.

I had a pretty good deal from CFI through all my 91/135/121 gigs, life’s been good, and not to sound like a motivational speaker type but it really is what you make of it.

one tip I’d give, don’t be a one trick pony in this industry, I don’t mean be a defeatist and go work a non flying job, I mean there is a metric TON of facits to being a pilot, what helped me to a was not just being a cookie cutter 172-RJ-Airbus type

 

Also the big airlines are basically credit card companies. Most would be in the red financially if it weren’t for their credit card programs. Lower consumer spending, not only means less airline demand but less card transaction revenue as well

 

Well possible good news, WSJ reported today that the big banks (ie credit card companies) show consumer spending has remained resilient through Q1.

 

Probably because so many people rushed to buy stuff ahead of tariffs. I know I sure as heck did. We shall see what Q2 and more importantly Q3 bring.

 

You rushed to buy Chinese plastic crap from Walmart before the Tariffs? Panic much?

 

Anecdotal, but perhaps common:
A freind who runs a landscaping company spent thousands on equipt in just a few weeks that he would normally spread throughout the season.
He also prebought fixtures and tiles for a bathroom remodel he isnt planning on doing until next winter.

 

not sure I agree that airline hiring is back to normal. appreciate the positive attitude, but air Wisconsin and silver might be soon be finished, Spirit furloughs, only drips of regional hiring for the last 12 months, now tariffs and such. I know things can change fast, just feels like we're something in-between 2008 and 2020.

 

I did seriously consider rushing out to buy a new car we'll be needing (European, not Chinese). Didn't quite get around to pulling the trigger, so probably going to wait it out now. I actually prefer buying new-ish used cars, but that market has been driven up too, by the tariffs on the adjacent new market.

There's no way to pretend that large, sweeping tariffs will be inconsequential, otherwise the admin wouldn't have bothered with them in the first place. We basically have to hope he's able to quickly negotiate favorable adjustments to the old trade balance structure and then back away from the cliff.

The old structure included a variety of mechanisms which could be leveraged by other countries to protect *their* local industries while enjoying free-ish trade to the USA, hence the imbalance that got us here.

Separate debate is whether we should be protecting our low-skill labor from cheaper low-skill labor in developing countries.

Silver lining is that the majority of our trading partners need us more than we need them, and I'd estimate that a vast majority of our largest partners need us more.

China is a special case, while they also need us more to preserve their existing economy (which was already not so hot), Xi has coalesced enough autocratic power that he can probably get away with tanking their economy while he fights a public geopolitical battle with Trump. He might even manage to set their economy and trade relations on a completely different course long term, at least somewhat disconnected from the US. As somebody who buys a lot of car parts, I might actually enjoy not trading with China

Downside of fewer economic entanglements with China is that it's easier to have a war.

 

I guess you don't realize that more than half of the products imported into the USA aren't finished products. They are raw materials that US companies use to create finished products, and that supports millions and millions of US jobs. To believe that these tariffs won't have a dramatically negative effect on our economy is to be wilfully ignorant. Your characterization of imports as "cheap Chinese crap" makes it quite clear that you have little clue about how modern economics actually works.

Let's take coffee for example. One percent of the US coffee bean supply is grown domestically, because we don't have places where coffee can be grown outside of Hawaii. So we import 99 percent of our beans. Employees here in the good ol' USA then grind, roast and serve that coffee. Plus the truck drivers who deliver the beans to roasteries, coffee shops, and supermarkets. What happens when tariffs spike the price of coffee? Demand declines, and that directly affects the livelihoods of everyone involved in the economic chain that allows you to drink coffee in the first place.

From the aluminum that goes into Boeing aircraft, to industrial diamonds that are utterly essential to some heavy industries, to the rubber that goes into car tires -- all of these raw materials either aren't possible to produce domestically, or can only be produced at vastly higher costs. These materials are combined into finished products right here in the US, and millions upon millions of American people earn their living from assembling, designing, transporting, and selling these products. Tariffs simply make their lives more difficult, by making it harder for consumers and businesses to buy the products created. I guess people like you just choose to ignore this reality, because you think of imports as merely "Chinese crap."

And for the record, I've never once entered a Walmart.

 

Several Toyotas are made right here in the US and they are cheaper and more reliable than German stuff. Maybe not quite as fun to drive.

As you say China is the special case. They can make good stuff when they want but everyone who does business there and is honest about it tells tales of all the cheating. I'm sure that happens everywhere but nobody else has made it a national pastime like China. Auto parts are an obvious example as everyone who works on their own stuff knows. If you can't get OEM you may as well get 2 when you go to AutoZone because there's a 50% chance brand new in the box won't work or will fail in months.

Everything you write is correct but China remains the special case. I expect trade with the rest of the world to normalize quickly. India will allow Harley's to be imported tarriff free (for all 3 Indians who ride one), etc.

One of the promising developments looks to be prying African natural resource extraction away from Chinese companies.

Can we decouple from China? Can we get them to stop cheating? Who knows. I happen to think it's a fight worth having but it's not going to be without some pain.