So how did all this work out for you..... 4-5 years later?

 

I am going to look at the numbers for 2011, failing that 2010. I believe the originally posted article said something about 878 million projected pax in 2011.

And whatever happend to good ol' Saabaroowski? Or should I say Joeymeatballs?

Ok, so the data I found said 710 million total enplanements (versus 698 million commercial) in 2000. I guess what I am looking at also includes GA. None-the-less, total enplanements for 2010 were 713 million. Whoop-de-freakin'-do. I think they missed their 26% growth by 2011 mark.

To be fair, I can only get 2010 data, according to what I read 2011 data will be out this JULY. Yikes. And I was looking at total enplanements, the article was for commercial. I believe GA enplanements added slightly over 10 million to that figure, so still a small, small percentage, and therefore a 26% growth--my foot!

May I posit that "There are lies, damned lies, and then there are statistics" should exchange the word statistics for projections?

Final edit, To be fair the September 11th attacks had not happened yet, and I imagine most prognoaticators were feeling bullish coming out of the 90's.

 

FAA Numbers 2012

US Civil Airmen Statistics

Table 17

Pilot--Total 89,640
StudentE 54,370
Recreational 52
Sport 528
Airplane
Private 16,571
Commercial 8,651
Airline Transport 6,396
Rotorcraft (only) 2,892
Glider (only) 180
Flight Instructor
Certificates 1/ 4,116
Instrument Ratings 2/ 9,643

8,651 NEW COMMERCIAL PILOTS. People still want to be pilots even at regional pay rates. Now I understand why regional airlines want pay cuts. If you think the regional airlines are going to have trouble please help me understand why.

 

How many of those new commercial certs were for guys overseas?

 

I think you'll find him posting on the "Major" boards now.

 

I don't know, I would think most overseas pilots will not become instructors. Best guess about half.

Flight Instructor
Certificates 1/ 4,116

 

Doesn't anybody see my signature on here??? I have that data in my signature.

 

i've heard that less than 600 CMEL were issued to students staying in the US and the rest were foreigners. You could make the same statement about the ATP certificates. But, the devil is in the details, the spike in ATP ratings is because of all the regional FO's being issued ATP's, these aren't "new" pilots

 

Wouldn't some ATPs be for foreigners that come here for flight safety and the like to go fly respective jets in their counties?

 

sure, but my point still stands. the "spike" in the last year or so is largely due to US regional FO's. this isn't the important part, focus. the important part is that most of the CMEL's were issued to foreigners