Regional CA Upgrade Times
05-02-2026 | 09:41 AM
#41
Perennial Reserve
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 14,248
Likes: 257
Adios, Spirit…
https://www.spiritrestructuring.com
Adios, Spirit? What has that to do with regional CA upgrade times? That’s easy. Regional CA upgrade openings depend on regional CA vacancies which depend - in large part - on Major Airline Hiring. Except, Spirit - which at its peak in 2022 was hiring almost 1000 pilots a year - will no longer be hiring. But it’s more than that. Their ceasing operations means no more NK hiring but more than that it means that most of the remaining 2000ish pilots that haven’t already left Spirit are now competing for the openings at the other majors.
And those 2000 pilots will compete very effectively. Not only do they all have an A320 type rating, they are the survivors of a couple of furloughs that sent 1000 of their more junior fellows to other airlines over the past two years and go displacements and downgrades that means the majority of them have TPIC IN THE A320 as well - as likely as not - in regional jets. They are the ones that didn’t bail when the early signs of trouble started to show because with their seniority taking the hit of starting over as a junior FO on a different jet in a different city (or commuting) didn’t seem like a good idea. They are - arguably - more qualified and desirable than their more junior brethren who have already jumped to another major. Moreover, they’ll have those junior brethren at a legacy - now off probation on year two or three - to give them letters of recommendation. Not only that, they’ll have - at least at ALPA carriers - preference for interviews and hiring, coming from a distressed former ALPA pilot group. Some few nearing retirement anyway will just retire, but most will be working at another major.
So that gets us back to queuing theory. These guys/gals are going to displace many people that WOULD HAVE BEEN HIRED at a major. That won’t, of course, affect regionals that have contractual minimal flow quotas other than pretty much guaranteeing that they will be hiring the minimum required by those contracts for a few years, and it does raise the bar for everyone else, since this (and the military hires) will pretty much back up the non contractual hiring for a year which will mean that hiring at all 121 levels will become more selective which will get four year college degrees, increased TPIC, volunteer work, and all the other HR happy horse$hit, etc., back in play again.
Adios, Spirit? What has that to do with regional CA upgrade times? That’s easy. Regional CA upgrade openings depend on regional CA vacancies which depend - in large part - on Major Airline Hiring. Except, Spirit - which at its peak in 2022 was hiring almost 1000 pilots a year - will no longer be hiring. But it’s more than that. Their ceasing operations means no more NK hiring but more than that it means that most of the remaining 2000ish pilots that haven’t already left Spirit are now competing for the openings at the other majors.
And those 2000 pilots will compete very effectively. Not only do they all have an A320 type rating, they are the survivors of a couple of furloughs that sent 1000 of their more junior fellows to other airlines over the past two years and go displacements and downgrades that means the majority of them have TPIC IN THE A320 as well - as likely as not - in regional jets. They are the ones that didn’t bail when the early signs of trouble started to show because with their seniority taking the hit of starting over as a junior FO on a different jet in a different city (or commuting) didn’t seem like a good idea. They are - arguably - more qualified and desirable than their more junior brethren who have already jumped to another major. Moreover, they’ll have those junior brethren at a legacy - now off probation on year two or three - to give them letters of recommendation. Not only that, they’ll have - at least at ALPA carriers - preference for interviews and hiring, coming from a distressed former ALPA pilot group. Some few nearing retirement anyway will just retire, but most will be working at another major.
So that gets us back to queuing theory. These guys/gals are going to displace many people that WOULD HAVE BEEN HIRED at a major. That won’t, of course, affect regionals that have contractual minimal flow quotas other than pretty much guaranteeing that they will be hiring the minimum required by those contracts for a few years, and it does raise the bar for everyone else, since this (and the military hires) will pretty much back up the non contractual hiring for a year which will mean that hiring at all 121 levels will become more selective which will get four year college degrees, increased TPIC, volunteer work, and all the other HR happy horse$hit, etc., back in play again.
05-02-2026 | 11:13 AM
#42
Line Holder
Joined: Mar 2026
Posts: 237
Likes: 247
https://www.spiritrestructuring.com
Adios, Spirit? What has that to do with regional CA upgrade times? That’s easy. Regional CA upgrade openings depend on regional CA vacancies which depend - in large part - on Major Airline Hiring. Except, Spirit - which at its peak in 2022 was hiring almost 1000 pilots a year - will no longer be hiring. But it’s more than that. Their ceasing operations means no more NK hiring but more than that it means that most of the remaining 2000ish pilots that haven’t already left Spirit are now competing for the openings at the other majors.
And those 2000 pilots will compete very effectively. Not only do they all have an A320 type rating, they are the survivors of a couple of furloughs that sent 1000 of their more junior fellows to other airlines over the past two years and go displacements and downgrades that means the majority of them have TPIC IN THE A320 as well - as likely as not - in regional jets. They are the ones that didn’t bail when the early signs of trouble started to show because with their seniority taking the hit of starting over as a junior FO on a different jet in a different city (or commuting) didn’t seem like a good idea. They are - arguably - more qualified and desirable than their more junior brethren who have already jumped to another major. Moreover, they’ll have those junior brethren at a legacy - now off probation on year two or three - to give them letters of recommendation. Not only that, they’ll have - at least at ALPA carriers - preference for interviews and hiring, coming from a distressed former ALPA pilot group. Some few nearing retirement anyway will just retire, but most will be working at another major.
So that gets us back to queuing theory. These guys/gals are going to displace many people that WOULD HAVE BEEN HIRED at a major. That won’t, of course, affect regionals that have contractual minimal flow quotas other than pretty much guaranteeing that they will be hiring the minimum required by those contracts for a few years, and it does raise the bar for everyone else, since this (and the military hires) will pretty much back up the non contractual hiring for a year which will mean that hiring at all 121 levels will become more selective which will get four year college degrees, increased TPIC, volunteer work, and all the other HR happy horse$hit, etc., back in play again.
Adios, Spirit? What has that to do with regional CA upgrade times? That’s easy. Regional CA upgrade openings depend on regional CA vacancies which depend - in large part - on Major Airline Hiring. Except, Spirit - which at its peak in 2022 was hiring almost 1000 pilots a year - will no longer be hiring. But it’s more than that. Their ceasing operations means no more NK hiring but more than that it means that most of the remaining 2000ish pilots that haven’t already left Spirit are now competing for the openings at the other majors.
And those 2000 pilots will compete very effectively. Not only do they all have an A320 type rating, they are the survivors of a couple of furloughs that sent 1000 of their more junior fellows to other airlines over the past two years and go displacements and downgrades that means the majority of them have TPIC IN THE A320 as well - as likely as not - in regional jets. They are the ones that didn’t bail when the early signs of trouble started to show because with their seniority taking the hit of starting over as a junior FO on a different jet in a different city (or commuting) didn’t seem like a good idea. They are - arguably - more qualified and desirable than their more junior brethren who have already jumped to another major. Moreover, they’ll have those junior brethren at a legacy - now off probation on year two or three - to give them letters of recommendation. Not only that, they’ll have - at least at ALPA carriers - preference for interviews and hiring, coming from a distressed former ALPA pilot group. Some few nearing retirement anyway will just retire, but most will be working at another major.
So that gets us back to queuing theory. These guys/gals are going to displace many people that WOULD HAVE BEEN HIRED at a major. That won’t, of course, affect regionals that have contractual minimal flow quotas other than pretty much guaranteeing that they will be hiring the minimum required by those contracts for a few years, and it does raise the bar for everyone else, since this (and the military hires) will pretty much back up the non contractual hiring for a year which will mean that hiring at all 121 levels will become more selective which will get four year college degrees, increased TPIC, volunteer work, and all the other HR happy horse$hit, etc., back in play again.
05-02-2026 | 04:39 PM
#43
On Reserve
Joined: Feb 2022
Posts: 19
Likes: 3
Indeed
05-05-2026 | 10:14 AM
#44
Perennial Reserve
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 14,248
Likes: 257
05-05-2026 | 10:20 AM
#45
On Reserve
Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 11
Likes: 0
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