Future of the airline industry and regional hiring frenzy
10-16-2007 | 04:15 PM
#131
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From: Air Bus Driver
What he is trying to say is that knowledge and experience are 2 completely different things. if you graduated from law school with all A's, would you be as good of a lawyer as somebody who has actually been working cases for 10 years? Usually not. There are always exceptions, but they are just that, exceptions, not the rule. The same thing as flying. You can know the rules and procedures from head to toe, but until you actually put them to use, you haven't proven anything. ATP gets you the ratings, but not the experience. That's what odd jobs are for before you enter 121.
10-16-2007 | 04:17 PM
#132
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From: Air Bus Driver
Thanks
10-16-2007 | 04:26 PM
#133
Self Employed.
Joined: May 2005
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From: Corporate Pilot
My contention
Hi!
Oil:
Oil will be hitting $100/barrel. Then it will continue climbing over $150/barrel.
My prediction is it will get to about $250/barrel until the combination of demand/drop and alt fuel availability will allow it to decline, until it is down around $10/barrel or less.
Anyone else want to predict the max price of oil???
Instructor/Pilot Shortage:
There is a very large instructor shortage. Even the US, which, along with Canada, are the only two countries that still have more pilots than jobs, is getting more and more critical on instructors. More than one flight school has closed, because they lost all their instructors.
Boeing says there is worldwide demand for 17,000 airline pilots a year for the next 20 years. Much of the lack of instructors is because so many foreign students are coming here for training-they suck up a lot of spots, and those schools pay a lot. I just saw an ad for one of them-$42K per year to flight instruct for them, and you build a lot of time fast.
Skyhigh:
Your stats of 10K new commercial pilots/year is wrong. The FAA says there are now LESS commercial pilots than there were 5 years ago. If 10K are being produced, that means that more than 10K per year are dropping out.
Note: I'll correct myself:
I guess that, theoretically, 10K new commercial pilots per year COULD be true, but then that means that since the US is experiencing a net loss of commercial pilots every year, that more than 10K per year are dropping out, which is a making the pilot shortage worse, not better.
Military:
Set schedule? Wrong. It is all timing, just like all other aviation jobs. If you go to flight school, and they are trying to RIF (get rid of pilots), you can wash out with a few bad rides. If they need pilots, on the other hand, they will fly you and fly you and fly you until you get it right. You can re-take your checkride multiple times, and you will only wash out if they absolutely can't teach you to pass the next checkride.
cliff
ABQ
Oil:
Oil will be hitting $100/barrel. Then it will continue climbing over $150/barrel.
My prediction is it will get to about $250/barrel until the combination of demand/drop and alt fuel availability will allow it to decline, until it is down around $10/barrel or less.
Anyone else want to predict the max price of oil???
Instructor/Pilot Shortage:
There is a very large instructor shortage. Even the US, which, along with Canada, are the only two countries that still have more pilots than jobs, is getting more and more critical on instructors. More than one flight school has closed, because they lost all their instructors.
Boeing says there is worldwide demand for 17,000 airline pilots a year for the next 20 years. Much of the lack of instructors is because so many foreign students are coming here for training-they suck up a lot of spots, and those schools pay a lot. I just saw an ad for one of them-$42K per year to flight instruct for them, and you build a lot of time fast.
Skyhigh:
Your stats of 10K new commercial pilots/year is wrong. The FAA says there are now LESS commercial pilots than there were 5 years ago. If 10K are being produced, that means that more than 10K per year are dropping out.
Note: I'll correct myself:
I guess that, theoretically, 10K new commercial pilots per year COULD be true, but then that means that since the US is experiencing a net loss of commercial pilots every year, that more than 10K per year are dropping out, which is a making the pilot shortage worse, not better.
Military:
Set schedule? Wrong. It is all timing, just like all other aviation jobs. If you go to flight school, and they are trying to RIF (get rid of pilots), you can wash out with a few bad rides. If they need pilots, on the other hand, they will fly you and fly you and fly you until you get it right. You can re-take your checkride multiple times, and you will only wash out if they absolutely can't teach you to pass the next checkride.
cliff
ABQ
Even the FAA is trying to figure out how high pilot turn over is. The problem is difficult for some reason since they do not have records of pilot deaths and retirements. They also can not determine who is active from those who are sidelined. I have been in email and phone contact with one of the statisticians from the FAA who is also trying to work the numbers to prove the same thing.
In any case at any one time there are almost 260,000 commercial and ATP licensed pilots with current medicals.
I am sure that the pilot shortage will get worse due to the shortage of jobs that are worth having.
Skyhigh
10-16-2007 | 04:35 PM
#134
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,772
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From: 744 CA
Cliff..when I went thru UPT...1985..... there was NO fly you and fly you and fly you.... 2 busted rides got you an 88 eval ride... bust that you went to an 89 elimination ride.... bust that you were GONE. There was no coddeling... no fly until he gets it.. you got it on THEIR schedule or you were out...finished ...end of story. In those days wash out rates averaged 50% in flight school and in some classes even exceeded that.... my class started 66....graduated 27.
T-37 solo was a pretty big deal...but there was only a three ride block to acomplish it.... rides 8, 9 or 10 in the jet. if by 10 you were not ready you were going to an eval ride.....end of story.
Now... i admit... UPT isnt what it was from that respect. I have a friend who is a retired LTCOL who is a sim instructor at a UPT base and he recently told me that it sickened him with how much extra time he was obligated to give to a student to get them thru... so yes... it has changed.... but not for the good in my opinion.
this coddeling of UPT students is a rather new thing just in the past few years .... they would be better served washing out the weak ones in my opinion.
T-37 solo was a pretty big deal...but there was only a three ride block to acomplish it.... rides 8, 9 or 10 in the jet. if by 10 you were not ready you were going to an eval ride.....end of story.
Now... i admit... UPT isnt what it was from that respect. I have a friend who is a retired LTCOL who is a sim instructor at a UPT base and he recently told me that it sickened him with how much extra time he was obligated to give to a student to get them thru... so yes... it has changed.... but not for the good in my opinion.
this coddeling of UPT students is a rather new thing just in the past few years .... they would be better served washing out the weak ones in my opinion.
10-17-2007 | 04:59 AM
#135
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jan 2006
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From: Spartan
It's been going on since at least 2000 when I went through. It's the biggest complaint I have for the split track system. There were 2-3 in my class that would(should) have washed out because they would have killed themselves trying to solo the T-38.
10-17-2007 | 05:49 AM
#136
Big Poppa
Joined: Apr 2006
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Does the USAF use the T-38 for anything other than training now?
10-17-2007 | 06:10 AM
#137
Gets Weekends Off
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Posts: 3,652
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From: Spartan
10-17-2007 | 12:13 PM
#138
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,772
Likes: 1
From: 744 CA
NASA fly's some of them, When I went thru UPT at Willy there was an F-5 ( T-38 on steroids ) training sqd that trained foreign pilots how to fly the Tiger II ( F-5) . On my second T-38 Solo I was re-entering the pattern coming up high initial and a mexican pilot stalled a F-5 in the final turn... no flap...no slats.. it stalled and rolled over on its back.... smoking hole in the final turn.... NOW that will get the attention of a solo student....!!!
10-17-2007 | 12:43 PM
#139
China Visa Applicant
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 1,964
Likes: 16
From: Midfield downwind
I just came from a stint teaching LIFT (IFF) and having to deal with the "student product" coming from the current SUPT system.
I have heard some stories that make my blood boil....students reinstated to training two or three times after hooking 89s! Circa 2003 I heard that there had been ZERO T-38 SUPT washouts in the previous year! They are DEFINITELY kicking the can of substandard pilots down the training pipeline for someone else to deal with.
It's a damn shame.
10-17-2007 | 01:14 PM
#140
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 4,772
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From: 744 CA
No washouts.. holy crap batman.... I can tell ya the year I was at willy...85-86... half the stud's didnt make it....
Hacker...what you are alluding to is backed up by the retired LTCOL that I know at a UPT base who basically said the same thing. He went so far as to say that he had known of some guys who essentially never passed a check ride.... they always ended up at 89's where they were passed. Just doesnt seem right to me.
Hacker...what you are alluding to is backed up by the retired LTCOL that I know at a UPT base who basically said the same thing. He went so far as to say that he had known of some guys who essentially never passed a check ride.... they always ended up at 89's where they were passed. Just doesnt seem right to me.
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