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Read ALL THE WAY through:

http://www.aviationplanning.com/Predictions2008.htm

I am due to start training (not Republic) at a regional soon and was forwarded this article from a retired Major Captain. Its not what I am wanting to hear just before I begin training.

Your guys' thoughts........

maveric311

this ones been talked about already. look through the forums. im in the same boat as you are mate. I start in a weak. all we can do is work hard and cross our fngers.

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I was told that this "Boyd Group" has been very accurate in predictions in the past per my friend who sent me the article. I don't know much about them at all, so I figured that I would post and see if others can further enlighten me on the topic.

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Sorry 'bout that. I must have missed it while searching, I'll try again.

Thanks!

BoilerUP

Michael Boyd is a MASTER at stating the obvious.

His "predictions" have been no more accurate than anybody in the field of aviation that can think logically.

Mesabah

Another thing to consider is that landing fees will start to be based on time slots rather than on weight. This is not good for the RJ, seeing as it will cost the same to land a 747 as it does to land a RJ at some airports.

Killer51883

with the price of fuel getting this high, why dont airlines just switch back to larger turbo props? they burn a half as much gas and on some routes the time difference is only a few minutes. If im flying an rj from CMH to CVG and burning almost 4000lbs to do it why not get a Q or an ATR and carry the same amount of people and burn around 2000 pounds or so.

BoilerUP

1. Cost. New large turboprops cost a lot of money that many airlines don't have. They have either long-term RJ leases with substantial penalties for breaking or own those 50-seat outright. It may be cheaper to run RJs with fuel at $3/gal than it is to sell them, considering their cycles and relative value on the used aircraft market.

2. Lead time. I think orders are sold out for both the Q400 and the ATR for a couple years, at least.

3. Public perception. Many won't want to fly the Mega Whacker but will if it makes a $30 difference in the price of their ticket. Besides, modern turboprops aren't your father's Metroliner or Jetstream 31.

In my personal opinion, Colgan getting into the Q400 market was a very savvy long-term business move, and PNCL buying them was ever smarter. I said over a year ago that if AWAC wanted to survive beyond 2015 they should get large turboprops. After shunning 70 seat RJs, I hope ATW has some forward thinkers now that see the need of spending money to make money.

Personally, I'll fly anything as long as the payrate is right...

Pantera

This is what popped out to me as a Comair pilot


"Many agreements contain an early-out provision for the CNC, where a six-month notice can be given. In most cases, however, these notice dates don't become effective until late 2008 or 2009, and majors cannot afford to wait that long to cut RJ lift. So that means doing some deals with current SLPs. A cash payment in exchange for an early-out. Renegotiating the agreement with a financial incentive for the SLP to shift to larger CRJs or even into E-Jets, depending on the status of scope clauses at the CNC."

This should open up a can of worms. Our scope says we can not get the larger aircraft. However we could if we merged the pilot seniority list like we should have.

"Wholly-Owned SLPs Could Be Going Away? Maybe - just maybe - if the financial hit becomes too onerous, some wholly-owned SLP subsidiaries could be shuttered. This is not a drill - we are talking financial bleeding here. With fuel costs going up, the economy (maybe) softening, and the specter of labor needing and demanding increases, such an action is not out of the question."

OK we are taking a financial bleed, HEY SOMEONE THERE IN DELTA MANAGEMENT RAISE THE TICKET PRICE TO OFFSET FUEL COSTS!!!

fosters

If it were that easy don't you think they'd do it? More money = more profit = better share price = more bonuses for management. Give them some credit.