Anyone interested please see the thread that SAAB just posted, as it turns out skywest has CAL's blessing on this. Here we go. Good thing our pay and benefits (non-travel) stay intact.

 

I can see it just fine. Continental only cares that the flights get done, with reasonable performance. I understand they have the final say, my point was that they don't have a compelling reason to stop SKW from purchasing XJT.

Further, SKW will easily be able to fly cheaper than XJT for Continental. The current deal between XJT and CAL pays XJT around 10% margins. If SKW is willing to accept 7% that would have save CAL somewhere in the ballpark of $9,000,000 per quarter.

Edit: Just saw the other thread on SKW already having approval from Continental for the deal. I guess it points to SKW being willing to accept lower margins than XJT.

 

Mainline CAL scope would not allow SKW (with 90 seaters) to do CAL flying, IIRC. Makes sense to keep it with XJET.

Us Air scope allows 900's, so SKW will probably be busy with ex-mesa flying.

 

Yep, but there would NOTHING stopping them from reallocating 50 seat aircraft. In other words, put their CRJ's on COEX routes, pull EMB's from COEX and put them in UAX/DelCon routes.

And don't forget, there are probably WAY more things in play here that we don't know about. Like a relaxation of scope for one. Not saying it's gonna happen, but still. We're just the pilots, we don't have access to all that's going on behind the scenes.

 

We all know that ain't gonna work

 

You do realize that whenever a buyout is attempted the stock price always takes a jump, many reasons contribute to this. One of the most important ones is that the per share buyout price is usually more than its current market value which is an attempt to sway their current investors. This causes outside investors try to jump on the wagon hoping to make a quick profit. Thus driving the stock price up causing the buying party to submit a second offer which contibutes to the investors earning even more money. XJT’s jump in stock price has very little to do in XJT’s value and quite a bit to do with investors attempts at making a quick buck. I promise you that if & when SKW backs out you’ll see XJT’s stock price begin to settle as investors start selling because the buyout no longer brings the promise of larger profits. None the less those who jumped on the wagon will be very happy with their handsome profits from the stock jump alone.

BTW, Midwest experienced the same jump and remember that in the end, after several counters, they ended up being sold.

Also, the $3.50 per share was a low ball offer seeing you never bid high on the first attempt. This holds true in life in general.

As for XJT’s flying, I guarantee you that if SKW purchases XJT, you guys will retain the flying and SKW will use the 75 EMB options to gain another code share. Not to worry, SKW will do their very best retain all of XJT's employees, just look at West Air & ASA as examples.

Best of luck and I'd rather you guys stay independent but the second best option would be for SKW to buy you.

 

Let's hope so.

 

Do you think CAL will try to leverage scope relaxation negations with the treat of a merger?

E.G. "We need larger RJ's or we'll be forced to merge."

 

Not likely unless you are talking about 190s, what airline wants more 50 seaters?

 

Of course I don't mean 50 seaters, can those options be converted into 170/75/90/95's? If so then that's what they'll be looking to do. SKW doesn't want more 50 seaters and if they do they can get them really cheap on the open market.