All things considered: Age 65, Oil, Economy, Airline mergers and inflation.

I could easily be 5 to 10 years before the industry gets to the point of hiring again at a steady rate. There will be thousands of laid off pilot who will give up eventually and open opportunities to others but it will take a while.

I'd like to think that if Alaska Airlines were to call me tomorrow I would at least go to ground school. However I must admit that it would be difficult to condition myself again to accepting abuse from a corporation. I have become spoiled over the last few years. I haven't had to get up before 6:00AM in years.

In any case this downturn could be the worst event to ever hit the aviation industry. Few jobs will be safe. The game table will be totally different in 10 years. Hope for the best but plan for the worst.

SkyHigh

 

I don't believe we will ever see a shortage in the true sense of the word "shortage". What I do believe is that there will be a shortage of highly qualified people willing to accept employment in an industry with very degraded salary, benefits, and QOL issues associated with the job.

 

I just think there's a little too much gloom and doom and I don't even have an airline job yet. Hiring would still be going along a nice pace were it not for oil. Oil will pop, but the question is when. Just a half hour ago, I watched an interview with an oil "bear" on CNBC. He said all of the big brokerage houses are long oil and that is a sure sign the peak is near. He went on to say that when oil pops, it could go way down. Why? Firms will tighten their margin requirements. This analysts said oil could drop into a range between $70 to $100. The question is when though.

 

I don't think oil prices will retreat nearly as much as you think. There likely will be a pullback in price, but how can anyone think that the supply demand thing isn't going to get worse? Just look at the emerging markets of India and China, not to mention our own. Global population keeps growing people and oil needs to be used for everything from our jet A to the bottle that holds your pepsi. I think we're in for a long bumpy ride....seatbelts on...............

 

You are becoming one of the few who still thinks so. Even if it does go down it will not go back to $60. The airlines were struggling before all this came along. Even if oil were to drop tomorrow disaster in the airlines most likely is unavoidable at this point.

If oil does keep rising over the summer our nation could be facing recession or depression and collapse of the dollar. Some serious hard times for a long while. At that point no one will care much about the price of oil if they can not get a job to buy it.

Skyhigh

 

The regionals have experienced a huge RJ hiring bubble over the last few years. That trend was due to burst anyway and many will be flushed back out onto the street. Oil has just accelerated it. Normally it is difficult to get hired at a regional. It will become difficult again. People will look back and tell tales of the 500 hour pilots who got hired at the regionals.

Skyhigh

 

Lots of good thoughts here.

Oil will probably retreat at some point....probably back to the 100 level.... which would still be some relief.

World demand really is only up about 6% over the past few years.... and while it has tightened up supplies..... its not like demand is out stripping supply by 50% or something crazy.

The dollar, speculation, demand, PANIC have all contributed to this CRISIS. My family WAS in the retail gasoline business during the 70's.... it was wild times then... will be now. I saw gasoline retail prices go up 500% in those years... from 32cents a gallon to nearly 1.50 at one point though it retreated towards and around the 1 dollar mark for years after. .... we survived... we will again.

 

We will survive however our way of life will be changed. Survival as a pilot is in danger. The price of oil will have a huge effect on aviation. A better choice would be to become one of those alternative energy specialists. Choosing aviation as a profession is not a good idea right now. The airlines could be devastated by all this.


SkyHigh

 

Will oil prices ever retreat to much lower prices? I sure hope so, but then again I'm not betting on it. I think it will drop some, but not too terribly much.

Another analyst brought up an interesting point. He mentioned that oil prices in the past were one of a recession-type structure. In other words, the prices were way too low for the given market - and we got used to it. Instead of gradually rising over time, they remained low and the bubble finally popped. The high prices are probably what they should be, and the variable is going to be the consumer and the economy getting used to these prices.

I agree whole-heartedly with HercDriver's sentiments. Times are financially challenging at the moment but it's not the end of the world. If higher gas prices are here to stay then the economy will adjust to the way it does business. Once that happens and the initial shock of $100.00+ per barrel oil prices wares off, then things will stabilize once again.

 

Start drilling in Alaska (has more oil on the coast than Iraq) , stop fighting wars, spend that money on alternative energy, charge more for a stupid airline ticket, ...the list can go on and on but we need change and I don't see any leadership that will insist on it.