I am starting a company that is going to heavily invest in PMR energy, or personal methane reclaimation. This is a new break through in technology and alternative energy sources, and there is an unlimited supply all over the world; all I need is some heavy capital investment for R&D and infrastructure. Any takers?

 

I doubt it we will see 100 again. We don't have any control. Unless we start drilling and build new refineries I predict we will go back to mules and horses in a few years.

 

How about all them Babyboomers retiring? They have been packing all them 401Ks, altrernate retiring plans, etc, for decades know. Thats a lot of money thats going right out to the economy loop soon (if not already). And I am darn sure that at their point in their lives, all they will be wanting to do is to get entertained. Done with paying college for kids, no mortgages mostly, and stuff of this sort. Its going to be all entertainment, traveling, vacations, R&R, kickbacks, etc... they will have to keep drinking a lot of that fuel..by car or bus or airplane...but they'll keep drinking it...

 

It's also going to be paid for with money pulled out of funds that are presently heavily invested in commodities.

SO that's money being pulled out of oil speculation (among other things) and put into the US economy.

 

I'm buying a horse.

 

Something will give. There is no doubt about that. Oil may never go down, but the airline industry will grow to accomodate the changes. Only the tigers will survive. I predict several carriers will be gone soon and I think SWA and others in good position are salivating as they watch their competition succumb to this. Perhaps RJs will be a thing of the past, perhaps all these new guys coming out looking to "live the dream" may have to do something else with their careers or at least pay more dues before coming back.

I think we've been enjoying pretty good times over the last few years and have become spoiled. A 300 hour pilot flying a jet? A few years ago that was the exception to the rule. It was common practice to instruct, tow banners, drop skydivers, pipeline patrol, etc for many years to get to 3000 hours or so just to get hired on with a small 121 or 135 outfit. When the "pilot shortage" hit, it wasn't really a shortage of pilots at all, it was a shortage of qualified pilots. So the airlines reduced the minimums to something bordering on absurdity and now we have 20 year old pimply faced pilots coming out of the pilot factory schools loaded with debt looking for the job that was promised to them when they signed up. It was great for the new folks, but I think that that may have been a proverbial "bubble" in itself. Sure, we may lose a bunch of jobs in the process, but it'll be the new guys that go. Minimums will go up again, and perhaps, just perhaps, you'll have to be pretty damn accomplished before arriving at that coveted jet job and if we are lucky, that will help restore some of the dignity that has been so absent in this profession lately.

 

wow... that was quite the rant. what fueled it? could'nt make it through your first couple interviews? took a little too long to finish college? didnt get what "you were promised when you signed up"? or is it that you weren't planning on still being at a regional at this stage in life?

I am not one of those "pimply-faced pilots... loaded with debt... looking..", however, I do have respect for them because they are here to do their job and have been qualified for their position. I take it that your way of helping to "restore some of the dignity that has been so absent in this profession" is to write an anger-based post like that.

 

Actually, none of the above. I am not angry at all either. And I've had great success in this business thus far. I never went to an aviation college, don't have a penny of debt, and am working at the only place I ever interviewed for. And I am also probably a "new guy", having only been 121ing for a year now.

My point is that we've been enjoying pretty good times over the last few years in getting so many new guys hired with low time. People in here, myself included, are all worried about losing their jobs. It sucks. But my point was that in days past you had to pay your dues for along time to land a job like this. It could be construed that as oil goes up some of these junior jobs will be eliminated and the number of jobs and the qualifications required will approximate those of the not too recent past. The "bubble" of low time pilots getting hired may potentially be popping.

 

And as regards my comment about dignity. I don't believe new guys reduce the status of the profession in actual fact at all. As I said, I myself am a new guy. My point in that comment was as regards perception. The customers know when they get an on RJ that the pilots are "less exprienced" than a big jet. I've heard many comments over time about how "these pilots are just kids". And many of them know that they aren't flying the airline whose ticket they purchased anyway.

Also, with the advent of the RJ outsourcing thing, you end up with a plethora of different companies running the various gates at the various airports. American mainline agents thinking the RJ folks are beneath them. You see that a lot on United stuff. AA and UA mainline pilots don't even check in with us in the cockpit when jumpseating or deadheading anymore. Many of them probably don't even like us because we are doing "their" flying for cheaper and costing them jobs. Occasionally one will come up and I applaud that because I do it EVERY TIME I jumpseat which is every damn week. It is professional courtesy.

There are just so many politics in this business and I think flying outsourced RJs with "relatively inexperenced" pilots just puts a sour taste in the mouths of the veterans. My opinion is screw 'em. But that doesn't change the facts. Its perception. In actual fact, I've flown with many different low time captains who were all second to none as far as professionalism and skill. Can't say much about the FOs b/c I don't fly with them, but I've heard mostly good things.

 

you completely misread his post and missed his point. reread it and try and understand the point he was making. seems more like you might be the guy that got on with some low time and might be on the chopping block pretty soon here, or maybe im as far off based as you were.