Spring 2009.......I hope!

Wish I knew......kinda torn between flying 135 and continuing to instruct.

Stupid question....but does having a bunch of furloughed 121 guys hurt a CFI's chances of getting hired with a regional? It seems like flight experience matters...but in most cases, it doesn't.

 

I'd say with the current environment "yes" it hurts your chances. The only reason being, why would a company hire a CFI who has no 121 experience including flying the line(in a turbine aircraft with pax), passing IOE and groundschool when there are plenty of guys/gals who have? It sucks, but it is probably going to be the trend for a bit until hiring starts up again which hopefully will be sooner than later.

 

It hurts CFI's like me if furloughed regional pilots decide to move laterally to other regional carriers. That assumes some carriers will begin hiring aggressively before other carriers. I'm not sure that will be the case. UAL basically said on Friday that its furloughs were mainly the result of oil. If oil retreats, they believe they could bring back employees faster. If oil is the prime driver, most carriers should return to some form of viability at the same time. I don't know if that will be the case though. I can't imagine a scenario where furloughed pilots from UAL, AirTran, and other places would affect CFI's unless the regional hired street captains.

 

Why not fly 135 now if you can? If 121 is your goal, having single pilot 135 experience will be more valuable than more CFI time when it comes time to be competitive.

 

Here is a scenario, furloughed major pilots means less movement at the Regionals so less jobs for CFI's to get hired by regionals. It is the food chain and when the top of the food chain feels the pain so does everyone on down to the bottom.

 

Very true. I guess we won't know until we see who is actually part of "furloughed" pilots at major carriers. If they able to buy out a good number of high seniority guys, then attrition should provide some movement. If it's just low rung guys, then the regionals will be back logged for some time.

 

Wish I had a crystal ball........

 

I think hiring is going to be weak for a very long time. If oil retreats, most fare-setting airlines are going to stay constricted for a few more years in hopes of replenishing cash and paying down debt. Also, I expect any profits realized by the fare-setting airlines (my new line in the sand between a regional and a major) will be invested into replacing old equipment as opposed to increasing fleet size. This capacity reduction needed to happen for the airlines to return to being healthy businesses.

Pilots will retire, and through that attrition you will see some hiring once the furloughs are recalled. That hiring will be steady, but slow. Slow and steady is what wins the race, and when you see the airline hiring following that trend, you will know health has been restored to our industry.

In the mean time, if you see any gang-busters hiring, it will be at those carriers who have survived to pick up the pieces of a fallen airline. Places like Mesa will continue to hire due to rampant attrition, but hiring in these times should almost be a bad omen.

Do what you please, but don't expect to "make it" if you make it to the airlines. Upgrades everywhere will be at an Eagle pace, in Piedmont increments. Most attrition will occur among junior captains and senior FO's. The current state of affairs is going to make for a lot of lifers at the regionals. No airline is exempt, and as to who is going to prosper the most, well it really is luck of the draw. Wholly owned vs. contract carrier? Regional vs mainline? Prop vs. regional jet? Every side has its merits, but merit is not going to win this battle of survival. Pick a team and strap in, and know where your other options lay.

One good thing:
for the most part, management teams have not touted pay cuts as the key to survival. Sure, Xjet has, but I think that is an educated request meant to keep wages in line with the new rates Xjet agreed to fly for with CAL. Air Tran has asked too, but in poor taste. Everyone else, despite furloughs and soaring oil, has left the subject of pilot pay alone. Management realizes that a few million in wage concessions is trivial compared to fuel costs. So for anyone who wants to enter in this game now, at least you can expect pay to stay level. Of course gas and milk will triple, but what can you do?

 

It's all about oil. Oil, oil, oil. Somewhere, JR Ewing is smiling.

 

I imagine Skywest will be hiring again by the end of 2008. The Brasilia will need pilots if nothing else and there's still movement. JMHO