exactly...especially when production is cut for a couple days

 

AHHHHHHH HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

Like I said:

Flush supply report reverses oil price gain
Bloomberg News
Aug. 20, 2008, 11:03AM

Crude oil fell in New York after an U.S. Energy Department report showed a bigger-than-forecast increase in U.S. inventories.

Stockpiles of crude oil rose 9.39 million barrels to 305.9 million barrels, the biggest gain in percentage terms since April 2003, the report showed. Inventories fell the previous week as Tropical Storm Edouard hit Texas. Supplies were forecast to increase 1 million barrels, according to the median of responses in a Bloomberg News analyst survey.

"Deliveries are bouncing back from Edouard," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. "Imports are also up because there is plentiful crude available."

Crude oil for September delivery fell $1.49 to $113.04 barrel at 11 a.m. Houston time on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched a 15-week low of $111.34 a barrel on Aug. 15. Prices are up 62 percent from a year ago.

The Energy Department released the report this morning in Washington.

 

hey...but goldman sacks probably made some money off of whacker if he bought oil futures yesterday because of their "analysis"...just like they cashed in big time this summer on their fear-mongering $200/barrel estimate earlier this summer.

I have a grad degree in Biology and undergrad degrees in econ and bio, and I can tell you for a fact the economy and commodity prices are just as complicated as the human body and the entire universe...no medical doctor ever tells you you have an illness with 100% certainty, even if they have tons of tests that indicate a certain illness--because there is such a massive array of interrelated factors contributing to a disease, all of which are constantly changing...oil prices are no different--an analyst's prediction is simply an educated guess on a matter way too large for anyone or anything or even a supercomputer to comprehend, and even if a "consensus" of analysts "agree" oil will go up again, the fact of the matter is people and politics and weather can change in 5 seconds, completely throwing out any economic predictions made off of data by a bunch of analysts sitting in a cubicle in NYC or London. Things change over time, including analyst predictions.

As pilots I would hope we all understand the fact that you don't go out making decisions based 100% on what someone says is true at this moment in time. We don't just go heading out on a long flight in bad weather in the winter with one wx report printed at departure time and then never get updated wx or runway conditions or never check fuel en route or check alternate wx conditions, we all know thats foolish....same thing with analysts and commodities prices.

 

I was just stating my view that I am growing worried about oil moving back up. I have a hard time believing oil will hit $149 and I am dubious of Goldman Sachs considering they have large bets on commodities. Having said that, oil seems to be consolidating around the $115 level. When I wrote the post, oil had actually gone over $117 and seemed to have momentum.

This was the third straight day oil had been up and it seemed that the short financial/long commodities trade was getting started again. Fortunately, we got lucky with the oil inventory report issued at 10:30 this morning. There was an unexpected build of 9 million barrels of oil. The build reinforced the notion that demand for oil is going down.

My intent wasn't to to stir up a bunch of unhappiness. I'm just worried oil is ready to move higher. Notice I said higher, but not record high. I was just voicing my view/concern/worry.

 

understood, and i share the same concern. just don't really enjoy talking about it, if that makes sense lol.

 

I understand Whacker. Just look at it this way, though--there are a lot of guys/gals on this forum who are either in the process of or at risk of losing their jobs if oil goes back up again/more...(maybe you're one of 'em, I don't know what you do or where you work)...bottom line is it's like walking into a city that just got hit by a hurricane and running around yelling that there is another hurricane coming...when you're not 100% sure another hurricane is coming. We know our jobs are at risk, we know oil might go back up, hell, might even go over 200 one day, but no one wants/needs to be reminded of it!!!

I'm going to go back to doing nothing on my off days and NOT worry about oil, politics, elections, blah blah blah...I'm mowing my yard, drinking beer, and having bedroom fun with my gf. Those are things I'm not afraid of losing anytime soon!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Unless I get f-loughed one day and my gf leaves me for someone who is employed...but then I can go after a less-high maintenance poor chick. And there will always be strip clubs. Thank God.

 

Hey, I'm one of those guys who had an interviewed cancelled at Eagle and Comair. I'm not excited about oil either.

 

Ignorance is bliss. I have no clue how to check the price of oil and don't want to know.

 

NYMEX.com

 

It'll go down. It *always* goes down right before an American election. And then right after the election, it shoots right back up.

Those oil barons are clever that way.