excellent points. Mergers are #1 on my list. No one needs to be running 10 flights a day into BFE because 2 big boys merged and now you have the mainline and regional redundancy.

Lift may be 80%, but I find that hard to believe. Many are STILL furloughing, many are reducing lift (DAL, AMR). Lift is subjective because it is controlled by management. C'mon, you're on the DAL side, SKYW my be seeing 80% loads, but what is happening to the other DAL regionals? Their flying is being reduced. Those who control the airframes control the lift. They influence it, not the passengers. I use to see that with Airways back years ago... 3 flights going to BWI, the 1st 1/3 full, but the 2nd was 1/2 full. they cancel the 1st and move everyone to the 2nd to get a full flight. They would swap the airframe to somewhere else or keep it as a spare. Sure loads were up, but they really weren't. It was completely manipulated.

 

Even if there is this big "boom" come 2012, what makes everyone think that a regional captain that's been forced to stay at a regional for a number of years due to major level hiring freezes, who now has 6-9 years seniority making $100K at their regional will jump at the chance to move to the right seat of a major (when this boom begins) for $35K a year????

 

Yup, lots of retirements in the future, but lots of new pilots being created every year to compete for those jobs......

Original airmen certificates issued by Category:

2000 (for reference)
7,715 new ATP's
11,213 new Commercial Pilot Certificates

.
.
.
.

2005
4,750 new ATP's
8,834 new Commercial Pilot Certificates

2006
4,748 new ATP's
8,687 new Commercial Pilot Certificates

2007
5,918 new ATP's
9,318 new Commercial Pilot Certificates

2008
5,204 new ATP's
10,595 new Commercial Pilot Certificates

Take a look at the numbers- there's a huge decrease in demand for professional pilots now and the next few to several years, yet the "system" is still creating more pilots than what was needed when demand was "normal." And remember we had an oversupply of pilots in the business BEFORE the downturn.

Note that this isn't 15,000-ish new ATP's AND Commercial Pilot Certificates because you need a Commercial Pilot Certificate to get an ATP, but we're still creating alot (thousands) of new pilots EVERY
YEAR who won't be able to find employment for years......that's a huge backlog if they decide to stay in the business and if the industry starts hiring. Plus you have to consider the military pilots who will get out...if there is a "hiring boom" in the future, they'll start getting out of the miliary earlier just like they did in the mid 90's and early 00's instead of staying in for their 20. Then you have the guys that did get their 20 in and want to leave. Plus you have to consider all the guys on the street from furloughs. Yeah, they might be doing something else now, but maybe they're just working those jobs waiting for a better opportunity in the future. Pilot certificates and flight hours don't expire. If there's a "hiring boom" in the future, that means a pilot that has flown in a few years could get hired by a desperate regional airline or flight instruct for a few months to "get current" then get hired.

As long as regional airlines have a fat supply of pilots, they can offer low wages because if one pilot doesn't take the job, 10 other guys will. I don't see much hope for the future unless we see some significant ASM growth in the industry. Hopefully people entering the profession nowadays are getting a degree in something else while they wait out whatever "hiring boom" that is supposedly going to be happening in the future. I wouldn't hold my breath.

 

A 5 year moratorium on commercial/ATP certs would fix that.

 

first year pay at DAL starts at 52, second year is minimum of 72 and 3rd is near 90 an an hour now and many regional captains are seeing that heir regionals arent untouchable anymore. One must decide if its worth the risk to stay or leave? The potential upside at a major is FAR better than at a regional. The regional bubble has burst. The key is to decide if you want to suck it up and make the move early and possibly catch the wave or wait it out, see what happens, and possibly be forced to make the move at a later date thus missing the "boat"? Also lets be honest, most regional captains arent making 100k a year.

A major isnt a sure bet either but again it all comes down to Risk vs Reward to each individual.

 

The numbers are coming down, i'm willing to bet 2009 numbers will be sharply lower due to the regionals not upgrading in waves, credit market drying up and school loans being harder to come by. Also those who received ATPs in the past few years have likely been working on ratings for years and those numbers also show a big rise in initial ATPs because over the past few years the Regionals where upgrading 1000's of pilots since 2001 thus attributing to alot of the new ATP certificates.

Flight schools are having a much harder time attracting pilots now and that statistic will be lagged. we'll see

 

Lift industry wide is over 80%, here at SKW we’re around 82.3% for June 09 compared to 80% in June 08. 09 YTD SKW is at 77.7% which is up .8% over 08 YTD.

http://www.skywestonline.com/Admin/S...%20Traffic.pdf

When I commute to work on mainline I'm in the jumpseat 99% of the time with just a handful of seats open for non-revs. You should know that the 80+% is an average which means there are flying going out at 50% capacity and there are flights that are oversold by 5% or so. Certain markets will see the bulk of the capacity reductions and once the next round is complete there will only be one direction to go.

 

Second year pay at UPS is WELL above what any regional captain is making, or going to make. First year FedEx is $58. I think the majority would be willing to "jump".

 

I, obviously, can't speak for others but unless the entire system is showing progress with the majority hiring, I seriously doubt I would even entertain a flow through if it was offered right now. (No jokes on flow through needed....we've all heard them. To all, not PilotGuy.)

The risk of furlough, as it stands today, outweighs future monetary gains. JMHO for the conversation.

 

umm, he mentioned nothing of a "FLOW THROUGH"

Evidently you only see Trees