Boyd: Declining role of RJs
 

i am sory but link is broken

Boyd group has been wrong about everything they say about RJ's. Past, present and future... almost laughable....

Hasn't he been saying the same thing for the last 20 years?!

"A broken clock is right twice a day".

If gas prices go up again they'll be gone.

You realize most airlines hedge fuel for five or more years? Even then the price of jet A has not gone down that much since oil plummeted. The RJ's make money and not only that they provide 90% of the feed for mainline.

Well, the post was from 2005. So...

Boyd have to take down there site.. because whatever they wrote was wrong... ha. Yes. We all know the 200's will go away. Same as the 757. They don't make them anymore And they will both time out..

90%??? Where did you get that figure from? Most I had heard was 50% of domestic feed.

LOL actually mainline provides 90% of the feed for mainline. But there's still a small role for RJ's.

Regionals are doing 50% of all domestic flights and 90% of out stations.

You call 50% of all domestic flights a small role?

50% of the departures but like 20% of domestic seat miles.

This indeed.

And when United gets their 65 737-700s and Delta their CSeries, those numbers will drop precipitously (for the good of us all).

Ok, now i know where you get your statistics from - your ass.

Cheers!:D

AA doesn't hedge at all anymore.

This! Haha. In his scientific study, what does he define has out-stations?

Your post could not be further from the truth. Most major airlines are virtually unhedged at the moment and plan to stay that way. Jet fuel prices have dropped like a stone. They were as high as 3.00 a gallon and got as low as 1.25. Every penny is worth 25 million dollars to a airline the size of Delta. RASM has declined every quarter for almost two years. Profits are solid only because of the drop in jet fuel prices.

Historically speaking fuel prices are above normal.

U.S. Gulf Coast Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Gallon)

The airlines are profitable because of reorganizations and consolidation.

Wow you need to be promoted straight to upper management at the nearest airline.

The difference in fuel prices at Delta from the last peak to this summer was 5 billion dollars a year.

And it would be approximately the same from the trough.

Not only that, but many of those seats don't "feed" anything, so its only a fraction of the 20%, if that.

Like I said, there's still a role for them, but I think all outsourced RJ flying should continue to shrink.

You're incorrectly assuming that the cost of fuel is a fixed price. That is like saying, "historically, the price of milk is above average." You can't look at the average over the last 100 years because the data has increased as the years have progressed. If you analyze the data appropriately, you need to find the rate of change of fuel over the given data and find where the fuel SHOULD be based on the data and where it is. Given the data, fuel should be in the high $2. The only way to negate that positive trend would be to start the data set at the 2008 peak.

Because its jobs outsourced to the lowest bidder that are used to not only whipsaw against the mainline but against other regionals. Its an evil vicious model whose time has come to pass. The current trend of collapsing regionals coupled with growing narrow body mainline is awesome. All signs point to it continuing.

LOL yeah OK.

Never said anything about $%^&ing off pilots. Its our scope for our code and we control it. By not allowing them to add more cancerous large RJ's we're cutting off the last viable hope that sector has of continuing to consume the profession at DL and other airlines will likely hold the line as well. If you're at a regional, then that "airline" has a code too. Your union is free to negotiate as strong a scope clause over that code as you want to. Have at it. Meanwhile the regional sector continues to wither, as it should.

Because the water is cold....

I hope you are debating yourself because I said none of your points. The person I was questioning used the 2008 peak as the norm which is obviously erroneous if you even glance at the data or know anything about the energy markets.

As I actually said, airlines are profitable because of their reorganizations and consolidations.

However AA is in love with the rj.If things go as planned they will purchase a lot more of them.Which,in my opinion, will bite them in the arse a few years from now.

We absolutely do own and control the code by contract. All of it. We then allow exceptions (sometimes too many of course). It has nothing to do with honor or pride or ego; if anyone is getting emo about it its you but I digress.

Once we allow exceptions, it becomes difficult to reign it in, but we've done a fairly good job of reversing the damages. We recently had an opportunity to pull 49 50 seaters worth of lift (almost 2500 seats) out of DCI permanently, but we elected to go another route because we didn't feel that pulling down 125 50 seaters was worth allowing 50 much more viable and effective 76 seaters.

We also made improvements internationally (in exchange for a few areas of small compromise) and any additional JV's (and there will be several) will, by contract, have to abide by our PWA as well. Many things the company would like to do with those will require additional consent from us.

So yes, we do very much own and control the code. And by "normal change" yes I mean withering. Pay is skyrocketing in the once cut throat bottom feeder regionals faster there than anyone thought was even survivable just a few short years ago, and the sector is shrinking and will likely continue to shrink as the RFP model fades away and numerous market forces push more flying to mainline above and beyond even the contracts that own and control the legacy airline codes.

LOLwut?

We don't control who does the above or below wing stuff, but no one has ever claimed as much. The company can make whatever deal with whatever they want with non pilot functions. We control the code WRT pilots flying the code. That is the context that we control it, but its obvious you know that, and you know I know that, so its unclear of why you're popping chaff WRT this.

As far as regional contracts, we don't control what we don't control (gate, fuelers, ticket agents, etc) but we do control the code we fly as well as the code we allow to be outsourced. Once its permitted by us to be outsourced, then the company is free to pick who they want to do that portion of the code. Even then they are limited with restrictions. Aircraft size and weight, hub to hub and stage length parameters, etc. If we furlough, seats have to be taken out, and sometimes a massive bump and flush must occur to accommodate our pilots, subject to our CBA. Sometimes if permitted regionals go rogue and operate larger equipment than what we allow WRT our code, we must remove our code from them. It isn't just regionals either. We set terms on the Alaska code share agreement that the company must abide by. Same for international JV's. We have default language in place for any agreement, as well as specific language for existing JV's.

If you work for a regional, your PWA probably gives your pilot group control over your code as well. Some scope clauses are better than others of course.

But you're free to ignore all that and pretend its one giant free for all. You wouldn't be the first to think that. Some in the past have arrogantly thought they could just operate mainline sized equipment, even for DL! Bwahahahahaha! In any case, hopefully you're not that naive.

So as far as pilots go, which is all we care about and can control, its our code, we own it, and we allow exceptions for others to do limited and controlled amounts of it as we see fit. Sorry if that triggers you in any way, but if you want a safe space, you have to go to a place that flies its own code.

Haha yeah OK.

We own the pilot part of the code that our airline does. I'm still not sure why you're popping chaff on this. You admitted we get a vote. We also get a vote on pay tables and work rules and moving expenses and per diem. Our PWA controls DAL's use of our code WRT who flies it. What part about that is so hard for you to wrap your mind around? And more importantly, what are you really trying to say? Do you maybe think that DL management can hire your regional to fly 757's for Delta? 78 seat "RJ's"? One more 50 seat RJ than is currently allowed to fly DL code IAW the DALPA PWA? Actually I think we currently choose to allow unlimited 37 seat props, so perhaps you can get in on that, I don't know.

As far as your curiously random ALPA worship comment goes, SWAPA has stronger negotiated scope than we do, and APA is pretty similar. In each case though, each group owns its code.

You want to fly our code? Get a seniority number on our list and you can...or...work for an airline who is allowed to fly a permitted portion of our code by our PWA and hope that you can hold on to that. I really don't know what else to tell you beyond that.

Stay thirsty.

But we do own the code. 100% as far as who flies it, which to pilots is all that matters. We are a pilot group, therefore all we care about WRT the code is who flies it. Below wing and cabin crews and paint shops aren't our concern.

If DL management wants to operate additional DL code somewhere, they have to abide by our contract, because we own it. That contract allows some outsourcing, but that is by our permission. If its not a listed exemption, it must be flown by us. That is all we care about. They want to use the DL code, they have to come to the DL pilot group.

You don't think that's a bad thing, do you?