Agreed, he/she needs to be including all ATP or CMEI with either 1st or 2nd class medicals.... since they are the potential pool.... additionally it could be argued that he/she should just include all ATP/CMEI regardless of medical since they may be keeping current teaching which only requires a third class medical, and when hiring resumes , they will get a new medical.

Ther are so many places in the "study" where flaws krept in that as I said, it makes for good entertainment...

Interesting numbers, but just realize that 5 years from now, there may be plenty of Indian/Chinese/Pakistani/Country X pilots who have 1500 hours.

Look at the past 20 years. Consumers ONLY care about low cost. They'll b1tch about bad service/food/delays but they'll keep buying the cheapest ticket. Management only cares about themselves and reducing costs. Pilots are the only group who benefits from high labor rates, and guess what - we're not decision makers in this process.

Foreign pilots and/or foreign airlines are a natural fit to today's environment.

Classes of physical
 

FWIW, Delta used to require F/Os and S/Os to get a first-class once a year, even though it was OK to let it "lapse" into a second-class after six months. (Don't know if this is still the policy.) The reason they gave was that it enabled them to obtain "certain waivers", perhaps having to do with insurance.

Also FWIW, a senior FAA flight surgeon advised that it's a good precaution to keep your first-class current, even if you only need a second-class now but will need a first-class down the road. He said that if some medical issue were to make granting a first-class a close call, they are more likely to renew an existing first-class than to "upgrade" a second to a first. If true, the reason for this may be more bureaucratic than medical.

Are you talking where the FO is never required to act as IRO/RFO?

Yes. This was before the 767ER etc. joined the fleet. As I said, I don't know what the current policy is.

Sorry, I was clear enough in my question? Are you saying that an FO OR an IRO never had to possess a first class? Even on a 767-200/300 that may have required one?

I've worked at two regionals and both of them had FO's get a 1st class medical every 12 months.

You think pilots could do better? I don't think so. The MBA doesn't mean anything, I'll give you that. But flying an airplane has little to do with running a business. Some of these businesses (UA comes to mind) have so much inertia and overhead from a long history of decisions made in differing economic times with differing managements, its like stopping a freight train at this point. There is much more going on behind the scenes than most non business folks realize, not to justify everything.

Its not like running a corner lemonade stand.

I'm surprised at some of the responses. To the OP, thanks for an interesting post.

Clarification
 

When we started flying 767ERs to Europe, I think all those F/Os and IROs had to have a type rating and a current first-class medical. I was saying that even when the FAA didn't require it for a particular seat (like DC-9 F/O), it was a company policy that the pilot get one at least once a year.