I keep hearing from posters about how they think the ATP requirement will not be passed. Whats the reason for this?
Also, everyone at this meeting at DCA thought that the ATP requirement will not help out the situation?....well of course they think that way...they're in the business that creates the fatasy for kids straight out of high school to go from zero to hero in less than a year, if that didn't happen then their enrollment would go way down.

I wish you were right but I think when faced with the choice of paying more or starting an ab initio program, we all know the way it will go. I hope the ATP requirement happens but in the long run when Congress is faced with ticket prices going up for the American public to cover the extra costs (of hiring experience) or lowering the standards via ab initio, the outcome is clear...they will lower standards. The irony is there is no shortage of experienced pilots, just a shortage of pilots willing to work for $18,000 a year.

Why is everyone so enamoured with the ATP requirement. Even if it becomes law tomorrow, how long do you think it will take for it to have an actual effect on hiring?
Lets look at it hypothetically. MAYBE in 2010 regionals will start recalling pilots. So I am guessing that most people aggree that there wont be any real hiring off the street till 2011-2012? And who will be the first to get hired? Most likely the Ameriflight types who have a couple thousand hours flying 135 in piston twins. So lets say 2013 before the CFI types get a call, and by then (thats 4 years from now) many of them should have at least 1500 hours anyways.
My point is, wether this becomes law or not, A perspective student today must accept that he/she will need a MINIMUM of 1500 hours before getting an interview. The ATP requirement will not, in my opinion, have an effect on the industry till at least 6-7 years from now.
As I said previously, of course pilot mills are panicing and calling this a crisis. They cant print those adds in Flying Magazine saying "0 to right seat in 180 days!" And as the economy turns around, wether this ATP req happens or not, they have to find some way to justify themselves as they will not be sending these "graduates" with 250hrs to the airlines. A crisis indeed.

This sure is a society of instant gratification. Why is it so important to see immediate results? If it takes 6 or 7 years to notice the effects, so what? There is nothing wrong with a long term vision.

My point was that it was going to take 6-7 years before the ATP requirement has any real effect on hiring. Point being, even without the ATP requirement, people will not be getting hired into the right seat at a 121 for the next 6-7 years with anything less than 1500 hours anyway.

Was not addressing the need for instant gratification

Ab initios work other places because there's a gap between a 172 and a 737, they can't get experienced pilots so they have to make their own. With so many qualified pilots here I don't think we'll see ab intio for a very long time. To people that think it's not fair, it's for the best. The article did a good job of rasing the other point, yes it's going to be harder for people to start flying, but what about when you actually make it to an airline? Right now, all that means is horrible QOL and low pay for years. So is it worth it anyways?

What students?

The ones I teach a primarily rated pilots that have their own Fortnue 500 businesses to tend. They aren't going for any airlines and try to avoid them whenever possible.

Hi!
Sometimes, we pilots think that the Aviation industry is turning to crap, and we see a lot of green grass on the other side of the fence.

One of my buddies went to truck driving school. He started work, and quit during IOE. It was WAY worse than his flying job. A 2nd buddy went (back) to truck driving, but then came back to his flying job, for less pay and worse conditions.

cliff
NBO

As a barely employed CFI not even considering the regionals for several years, if they started requiring ATP to fly FO (which when I got into aviation, I thought they did... my mistake then), at least to me and my fellow instructors at my school it's just another checkride.
We think of it this way: most airlines, regardless of TT, will probably start asking for at least 100 hours of multi. Where are you going to get those 100 hours of multi? Part 135? Well they will not hire you into their twins without 1200 hours at least or a couple hundred multi. Instructing? Probably, but the line of instructors to teach ONE multi student (gets you maybe 10-15 hours dual given) is several places long. We are expecting to have 1500 to 2000 hours dual given before we even get a multi student.
This mirrors what is going on at many other schools. Multi hours are so coveted that you have to wait a few years before you can give dual in a seminole and by then you already have your ATP mins.

Just giving the request CFI's perspective.