Yes, I did. As I was reading the first paragraph, I asked the question, "Just who are these industry experts and what relationship do they have with DCA?"

I've been a member of APC since Dec '05/Jan. '06, and every year since my joining, there has been talk of a pilot shortage. Heck, they were even talking about that when I was at Riddle in the 80's. However, it's not the airlines that is promoting this so called "shortage". It's the DCA's, AllATP's and the like.



atp

 

There is going to be a shortage, just like in 2007. It'll mostly be at the regionals, take it for what it is. Starting around 2013 or 2014, if you're willing to stay at a regional for 5 or more years, you would probably be "senior", making 60-70k/yr, and have a decent schedule. Not exacly as good as being a senior FO at Delta, but still not bad compared to a lot of other professions.

 

I agree with that statement. Is there going to be a full-out "shortage" of pilot...probably not; but how do you define a shortage? I think you will see steady hiring for at least a couple of years to qualified individuals. Plus, don't forget that when airlines begin hiring, corporate/135 and other misc. flying jobs tend to open up faster.

 

There is a problem with your theory. When you fly for a living for a few years, you are not nursing. Therefore, you have zero nursing experience when it's time to look for a nursing job. It is extremely hard to find a job with zero experience in any profession.

 

You might have to do the equivalent of what we call "getting current." Maybe a couple of classes or some volunteer work. If you already have the degree that just makes you one step closer to getting the job.

Believe it or not, other careers require paying some dues also.

 

What an ignorant statement! Where have you been the last year or so?
There are no flying jobs out there!

 

This is the most accurate statement I have ever read. Everybody should have this comment stapled to their foreheads while attending any flight school. There simply is, and never was, a shortage of pilots.

There will be however, a shortage of people willing to work for the wages the airlines are willing to pay.

 

All you youngsters pay attention to what this guy just just said. Read it again and again.

Congress cannot legislate a living wage for you, but this might help cover your assets when you are actually making a living wage someday. Maybe.

 

You are pretty much on the ball. The last time we went through this cycle, when hiring started you needed 1500-2000 hours and SEVERAL HUNDRED multi-engine hours to compete. When they have a large number of applicants they hire 121, turbine, and ME experience first. ASEL CFI need not apply.

I suspect that due to Colgan, the regionals will also specify ATP required or preferred, at least at first when they have plenty of applicants.

 

Personally I think a varied general avaition background makes for better pilots, especially here in the US where the airline folks have to mix it up with bug smashers and all sorts of other operators, sometimes at uncontrolled airfields. This sort of background is not so important for the rest of the world...in most other places airlines have the skies pretty much to themselves.

However...I might not be opposed to an ab-initio program here. While suspect there will always be CFI jobs, who knows if there will be enough intermediate 91/135 work in larger ME airplanes to provide experience for all the pilots needed by the airlines.

The good thing about ab-initio is that it can be VERY selective...offering free training and an airline job might attract some talent, especially kids without a lot of money who might be very motivated. Also if they airline have to actually pay to train their employees, they might have a vested interest in taking care of them in the long run.

For any endeavor you would ideally want talented people with a lot of experience, but if you can't have both I would prefer talent, which can be trained in the long run.