Couldn't disagree more mate. If there's one thing that's constant in this business, its the perpetual state of change. Cyclical really is an understatement and "regionals" have only been operating in their current mode for a relatively short period of time. After 2012 and the pilot shortage we'll be in the driver seat for a while, give it another few years, an economic downturn or two and I'm sure we'll give back what we made :p

If you realize that now, you'll save yourself a lot of aggravation over the long run :)

Ah, the good 'ole "pilot shortage" argument. There has never been a pilot shortage and there never will be!

Its too bad we're not payed enough, but at least you've got a postive outlook and an open mind :p

Give it time, unless high speed trains sprout up over night (not ruling that out) we're not training anywhere near enough pilots to fill the vacancy the baby boomers will leave

It's also been said that "those who can't do, teach."

I don't follow that school of thought, but two of the worst pilots I have ever met were being paid to teach me to fly.

Honestly, I'm not digging on CFI's. It's a tough, but rewarding way into this industry. I haven't done it, but have plenty of respect for those who do/did.

"Those who can't do, teach. Those who can't teach, teach gym"
-Jack Black, School of Rock
Sorry, I had to...

if higher pay is ever offered my guess is it would mostly (perhaps only) effect new hires... have airlines ever offered signing bonuses?

Yep, they did... but the unions shot it down saying they need to spread the wealth up top, and not just attracting newhires.

There are PLENTY of under/unemployed pilots across every segment of aviation to help absorb any "pilot shortage" that might occur post-2012.

Personally, I don't think it'll happen because in 2007 what we saw wasn't a shortage of qualified pilots, it was a shortage of qualified pilots willing to work for lower-end operators at their offered compensation and lifestyle.

A shortage of those able to fly and a shortage of those willing to fly for crappy pay/QOL are two very different things; after all, "top jobs" like UPS, FedEx, SWA & NetJets didn't lack for qualified applicants...

There is alot of merit to this premise, and I've heard it alot. I think this is applicable, but not always in aviation.

Somebody whom is low time and gets a freight job, flying single pilot IFR in all weather, including low imc precision and non-precision approaches is a whole lot more qualified than somebody whom is a CFI with 2,000 hours dual given of which almost all of it is day vfr doing touch and goes and stalls.

I think CFI'ing is repetitive, mind numbing, dangerous, and incredibly boring all at the same time.

There's never been one cause there's never been a swath of baby boomers getting ready to retire. There's never been an ATP required by law (not just economics)to get a job at a regional, the duty regs have never changed, our industry has never been more volatile.... etc etc

There are a lot of new factors going on right now that have "never been", so i really wouldn't be too surprised if we do see one. It's not just the flight schools that are predicting one, most aviation "experts" agree...so I have a hard time discrediting that just cause it has "never been".