Will some of us ever fly again??
11-04-2009 | 08:00 PM
#71
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jun 2008
Posts: 467
Likes: 0
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009-2025
FAA Aerospace Forecast
Fiscal Years 2009-2025
"If you are going through hell, keep going."
- Winston Churchill
Fiscal Years 2009-2025
"If you are going through hell, keep going."
- Winston Churchill
11-04-2009 | 09:09 PM
#72
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 287
Likes: 0
From: standing-by
Listen, everyone keeps saying "there will never be a pilot shortage, there never has been..there never will be."
I don't buy it.
Sure, there has never been a real shortage..but there are a lot of things going on in our industry right now that have NEVER occurred.
Two words mostly sum it up.
Baby Boomers.
Their retirements are coming, and that isn't up for debate. In 2007 the average pilot age was 45.6. Right in the midst of the huge hiring boom with a huge amount of 20 somethings dragging that number down.
Now, you snap judgment people / negative ninnies will look at that 45.6 and say "but that means we have 20 yearrrrrsss".
No, it doesn't.
What it means is that this country, has never had a larger generation that is about to retire. There are an estimated 77.3 MILLION baby boomers. That's a whopping TWENTY SIX PERCENT of the entire population of the country.
There were 3,500,000 births in 1950 and it increased and hovered around 4 million until 1960. Now, obviously all of them aren't pilots but if you take a minute to look at the pilots currently slaving for major airlines, it's clear that most of them aren't spring chickens...you all know just as well as I do, that that 45.6 average age is pulled younger by the regional FOs, and the majors are very top heavy.
The age 65 rule wasn't passed "just because"..there's a reason that EVERY aviation analyst is predicting a pilot shortage..and it's not just cause they've been bought out by the pilot factories.
I can tell you first hand, as a CFI in the Atlanta area.
NO ONE is learning to do this as a career anymore. Out of 30 students, 6 are pursuing a career. Statistically, 3 of them won't make it..so that's 10% that will make it to interview day, and 90% that want to do this as a hobby.
Enrollments are down in schools like DCA and Riddle too.
Things will get better. What keeps me going is the fact that I've wanted to do this since I was 6. And any passion that can be made into a job (and a pretty darn easy one, pay/work rule issues aside) is worth the wait.
I don't buy it.
Sure, there has never been a real shortage..but there are a lot of things going on in our industry right now that have NEVER occurred.
Two words mostly sum it up.
Baby Boomers.
Their retirements are coming, and that isn't up for debate. In 2007 the average pilot age was 45.6. Right in the midst of the huge hiring boom with a huge amount of 20 somethings dragging that number down.
Now, you snap judgment people / negative ninnies will look at that 45.6 and say "but that means we have 20 yearrrrrsss".
No, it doesn't.
What it means is that this country, has never had a larger generation that is about to retire. There are an estimated 77.3 MILLION baby boomers. That's a whopping TWENTY SIX PERCENT of the entire population of the country.
There were 3,500,000 births in 1950 and it increased and hovered around 4 million until 1960. Now, obviously all of them aren't pilots but if you take a minute to look at the pilots currently slaving for major airlines, it's clear that most of them aren't spring chickens...you all know just as well as I do, that that 45.6 average age is pulled younger by the regional FOs, and the majors are very top heavy.
The age 65 rule wasn't passed "just because"..there's a reason that EVERY aviation analyst is predicting a pilot shortage..and it's not just cause they've been bought out by the pilot factories.
I can tell you first hand, as a CFI in the Atlanta area.
NO ONE is learning to do this as a career anymore. Out of 30 students, 6 are pursuing a career. Statistically, 3 of them won't make it..so that's 10% that will make it to interview day, and 90% that want to do this as a hobby.
Enrollments are down in schools like DCA and Riddle too.
Things will get better. What keeps me going is the fact that I've wanted to do this since I was 6. And any passion that can be made into a job (and a pretty darn easy one, pay/work rule issues aside) is worth the wait.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
captain_drew
Flight Schools and Training
39
12-05-2012 08:29 AM
