Even more qualified pilots on the street...
11-15-2009 | 07:13 AM
#141
Self Employed.
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 7,120
Likes: 0
From: Corporate Pilot
Your Attention
Have you not been paying attention? Is that a serious question? I suggest you read this entire thread before interjecting your opinion.
Where do you think the majority of the Age 65 retirements are going to happen? An entire generation is getting ready to retire from many mainline carriers.
Where do you think the majority of the Age 65 retirements are going to happen? An entire generation is getting ready to retire from many mainline carriers.
Lets all hope that it comes to pass but I would not bet the farm on it. Besides if it does then you will have thousands of guys like me to contend with who will jump back into the market ahead of you.
I am not saying that mass retirements will not happen. My point is that you can not accurately predict the results if it does. A better plan is to hope for the best but plan for the worst.
Skyhigh
11-15-2009 | 07:35 AM
#142
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 248
Likes: 0
From: On The Jumpseat
I am sure that it has been brought to your attention before, however they have been saying that stuff for 30 years now. It works great to sell pilot licenses.
Lets all hope that it comes to pass but I would not bet the farm on it. Besides if it does then you will have thousands of guys like me to contend with who will jump back into the market ahead of you.
I am not saying that mass retirements will not happen. My point is that you can not accurately predict the results if it does. A better plan is to hope for the best but plan for the worst.
Skyhigh
Lets all hope that it comes to pass but I would not bet the farm on it. Besides if it does then you will have thousands of guys like me to contend with who will jump back into the market ahead of you.
I am not saying that mass retirements will not happen. My point is that you can not accurately predict the results if it does. A better plan is to hope for the best but plan for the worst.
Skyhigh
Betting the farm on whether or not it this happen is just retarded. That kind of mentality is what got this country in this mess in the first place. The lack of fiscal discipline is to blame for all of our current blunders and..............wait......thats another discussion, forget it.
I am not encouraging anyone to plan their life around this, just simply giving opinions on factual information.
11-15-2009 | 08:00 AM
#143
Self Employed.
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 7,120
Likes: 0
From: Corporate Pilot
Fact?
Nothing like this has ever happened before in the last 30 years. This truly is a unique situation, so whether or not it sells pilots licenses...this attrition will happen.
Betting the farm on whether or not it this happen is just retarded. That kind of mentality is what got this country in this mess in the first place. The lack of fiscal discipline is to blame for all of our current blunders and..............wait......thats another discussion, forget it.
I am not encouraging anyone to plan their life around this, just simply giving opinions on factual information.
Betting the farm on whether or not it this happen is just retarded. That kind of mentality is what got this country in this mess in the first place. The lack of fiscal discipline is to blame for all of our current blunders and..............wait......thats another discussion, forget it.
I am not encouraging anyone to plan their life around this, just simply giving opinions on factual information.
Skyhigh
11-15-2009 | 08:27 AM
#144
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 2,285
Likes: 0
From: Student Pilot
The combined delta/nwa seniority list will lose more than 600 pilots in 2012 when they turn 65, and it goes up exponetially from there. And thats from a guy in the top 20 that flies the 400 in dtw. like others said hang in there, dont give up. The movement may not come as fast as we want, but it is coming.
This is exactly what I'm banking on. Hopefully the trend will continue industry wide!!!
atp
11-15-2009 | 08:34 AM
#145
Banned
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 437
Likes: 0
From: Furlough/Gun Driver
Have you not been paying attention? Is that a serious question? I suggest you read this entire thread before interjecting your opinion.
Where do you think the majority of the Age 65 retirements are going to happen? An entire generation is getting ready to retire from many mainline carriers.
Where do you think the majority of the Age 65 retirements are going to happen? An entire generation is getting ready to retire from many mainline carriers.
And many mainline executives are salivating over subcontracting a whole new class of mainline aircraft to the regionals. Fewer expensive pilots at mainline, lots of entry level jobs at the regionals flying 90+ seaters for $hit wages.
The question is where will the explosive growth happen?
11-15-2009 | 09:21 AM
#146
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jun 2008
Posts: 384
Likes: 0
Yes Handhold I did read the entire thread. You can get your panties in a bunch all you want, but If you think the CEO's aren't going to farm out more flying to the regionals you don't know basic econ101. Reality is the aircraft being flown at the regional level has been getting larger and the pay has not increased to meet that trend.
Seriously are you a recruiter for the regionals or a CEO at the airlines? Your right the retirement numbers are factual. But there is no way any of us can know where the job placements will be. But the trend is the regionals are growing. There is being optimistic and then there is being realistic. Your optimism is nice, but as I mentioned its no where based on reality of the last few decades of aviation.
Seriously are you a recruiter for the regionals or a CEO at the airlines? Your right the retirement numbers are factual. But there is no way any of us can know where the job placements will be. But the trend is the regionals are growing. There is being optimistic and then there is being realistic. Your optimism is nice, but as I mentioned its no where based on reality of the last few decades of aviation.
11-15-2009 | 10:15 AM
#147
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 248
Likes: 0
From: On The Jumpseat
Yes Handhold I did read the entire thread. You can get your panties in a bunch all you want, but If you think the CEO's aren't going to farm out more flying to the regionals you don't know basic econ101. Reality is the aircraft being flown at the regional level has been getting larger and the pay has not increased to meet that trend.
Seriously are you a recruiter for the regionals or a CEO at the airlines? Your right the retirement numbers are factual. But there is no way any of us can know where the job placements will be. But the trend is the regionals are growing. There is being optimistic and then there is being realistic. Your optimism is nice, but as I mentioned its no where based on reality of the last few decades of aviation.
Seriously are you a recruiter for the regionals or a CEO at the airlines? Your right the retirement numbers are factual. But there is no way any of us can know where the job placements will be. But the trend is the regionals are growing. There is being optimistic and then there is being realistic. Your optimism is nice, but as I mentioned its no where based on reality of the last few decades of aviation.
Quite frankly i believe that with the slim margins on 50-seaters and the upcoming 1500 hour legislation.....many regionals will fold into chapter 7.
11-15-2009 | 11:19 AM
#148
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 248
Likes: 0
From: On The Jumpseat
Do you believe the stuff you type? Because i see cutbacks in regional flying. Look at the amount of furloughs and the cuts in block hours. Mesaba will no longer fly turboprops in a year, Delta said it wants to cut 200 RJ's, Mesa just lost all United flying, and now Comair is almost down to half of what it once was.
I could go on with more examples but fact is as of right now RJ's are being cut, and the 1500 hour rule will cripple the regional industry.
I could go on with more examples but fact is as of right now RJ's are being cut, and the 1500 hour rule will cripple the regional industry.
Last edited by IC ALL; 11-15-2009 at 12:16 PM. Reason: deleted quote removed
11-15-2009 | 01:06 PM
#149
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 437
Likes: 0
From: NU Guy
Do you believe the stuff you type? Because i see cutbacks in regional flying. Look at the amount of furloughs and the cuts in block hours. Mesaba will no longer fly turboprops in a year, Delta said it wants to cut 200 RJ's, Mesa just lost all United flying, and now Comair is almost down to half of what it once was.
I could go on with more examples but fact is as of right now RJ's are being cut, and the 1500 hour rule will cripple the regional industry.
I could go on with more examples but fact is as of right now RJ's are being cut, and the 1500 hour rule will cripple the regional industry.
Regional xx will file for bankruptcy due to the loss of 50 seat RJ's, in bankruptcy everything will be up for renegotiation union contracts, aircraft leases etc. Regional xx will emerge from bankruptcy with cheaper contracts across the board. Major xx (Legacy whatever) then farms out domestic flying once again to the Regional xx's who have replaced 50 seat RJ's with 100+ seat "RJ's."
As for the attrition panacea..... it's a sales pitch just like last time around it was the "Vietnam Era bulge" retirement that I was sold on.
11-15-2009 | 02:09 PM
#150
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2005
Posts: 2,702
Likes: 0
From: 767 captain
To get back on topic here's some US Airways retirement #'s which are not probably accurate but ball park for sure.
US Airways Retirements America West Retirements
2012 through 2022
(All pilots: including furloughed)
Year #USA #AWA Cumulative #
2012 239 43 282
2013 186 46 514
2014 238 47 799
2015 198 52 1049
2016 254 44 1347
2017 272 65 1684
2018 296 51 2031
2019 296 77 2404
2020 300 69 2773
2021 299 68 3140
2022 262 66 3468
US Airways Retirements America West Retirements
2012 through 2022
(All pilots: including furloughed)
Year #USA #AWA Cumulative #
2012 239 43 282
2013 186 46 514
2014 238 47 799
2015 198 52 1049
2016 254 44 1347
2017 272 65 1684
2018 296 51 2031
2019 296 77 2404
2020 300 69 2773
2021 299 68 3140
2022 262 66 3468
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
