......................

 

Shouldn't you be asking about retirements at Majors? I don't think we have to worry about regional retirements just yet. When age 65 hits there will be mass retirements, we should all see movement 5 to 10 years from now.

 

At Skywest, less than 20 in the next five years. Less than 70 in the next 10 years. 2800 pilots on the seniority list.

There won't be a massive amount of retirements for at least 20 years. Howver, I'd expect most won't stay until age 65.

 

very true on the retirement schedule, i was disappointed myself, but they sure do look like they shud be closer to 65 rather than in their mid 50's

 

Well first off, I didn't include all of our captains. We have a ton of captains hired in the 80's...which puts them at around 45-55 age wise. In fact, if you really want, I can post how many people we do have that are between the age of 50-55.

 

Piedmont

5 CA's are 59
10 CA's are 58
12 CA's are 57
9 CA's are 56
14 CA's are 55
14 CA's are 54
7 CA's are 53
11 CA's are 52
13 CA's are 51
5 CA's are 50

So that is 100 captains in their 50's

 

Yea my whole reasoning for this thread was to find out how many people will move on to the majors when hiring starts back, with the lack of retirements. Of course there is no certainty, but for the junior guys in the regionals, it looks pretty good for the next 5-7 years. If this house bill is passed changing duty regs, it is going to be really interesting to see what happens.

 

I hope you are right, I really do. None of us got into this business thinking that the industry would be what it is today.

That being said, I think the large majority of regional airline pilots will never move on beyond working for a "regional" airline to a mainline position. Therefore regional retirement numbers should be really important to somebody who wants to fly airplanes for a living and does not already have a job at a legacy, or major who flies Boeing or Airbus products. (Although contrary to what a Frontier pilot will tell you, Airbus is about to become the most recent addition to the "regional" fleet of aircraft. )

Why do I say this? Because my prediction is that mainline, legacy carriers will continue to outsource their domestic flying to affiliate "regional" airlines. As retirements hit the legacy carriers, they will simply shrink their seniority lists and focus their business on (1) international routes and (2) ownership of gate space at large airports so as to effectively "sublet" that space to their "regional" affiliates.

So if a regional pilot wants to move up in this career, they have to ask themselves "What can I do to make my self part of that 10-15% that will move on?" If anyone can't answer that question, plan on a "regional" retirement as a new reality. No A Plan, no B Plan, no pension, little to no 401(k) match - just the sweat off your back and what you can save over the next 25 to 30 years. Good luck.

Just my opinion, but as I see it, this is the new world order for pilots. Like it, or leave it. There is always something else to do for a living.

 

Looks like a lot of retirements in the regionals in about 20 years from now. Just hang in there CFIs. You too can make $17,000/year by 2029. Just hang in there and keep on believing! That shortage you've read about it almost here!!

 

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!