I have not heard numbers this high, do you have a source?

I agree with the expansion of 75-120 seat flying in the future as the 50 seat model is not sustainable with higher fuel prices but I'm skeptical of a large, widespread pilot shortage in the US.

Not at all, but I can see how negativisitic whiners would want to rationalize their behavior to avoid responsibility for their cowardly actions. It takes guts to charge a hill, run into a burning building or face down an armed mugger. Cowards always rationalize "We're all going to die if we go up that hill, we better not do it", "They're probably already dead from smoke. We'd be risking our lives for nothing", "It's only money. If we let him have it, he'll leave" or "Management always wins and the unions are powerless to stop them."

Which do you think has both low expectations and low morale? The negativist or the pilot who has the guts to stand up and actively try to change his own standard of living?

I haven't heard that number either, but am in the middle of watching these two videos on it.
Aero-TV Special Series: Understanding The Critical Pilot Shortage (Part Four) - blip.tv - Búsqueda de vídeos de Truveo

Understanding the Coming Pilot Shortage: Part Three - PilotJobs.com: Regional Airline Pilot Jobs

Pilotjobs.com is ATP academy. They have something to sell you....

I want to see the numbers when the 76 jet and 76+ seat Q400's are taken out. I am suspicious of trends that lump the industry std 76 seat orders in the whole. This is Boyd at his best. Can't be wrong w/o differentiation.

http://www.faa.gov/news/conferences_...ent%20Love.pdf

Also in the Contingency Slides (at the end) look at the huge gap between pilots licensed and ATPs licensed.

35th FAA Aviation Forecast Conference
 

35th Annual FAA Aviation Forecast Conference - Agenda and Presentations

There is a wealth of information in the slide and video presentations. Certainly many presenters have an agends be they Aviation Schools, Airlines, Unions, Consultants, etc., etc.

Reading many of the presentations (especially those on Regional Airlines and Pilot Staffing) prompted me to ask the question about "the perfect storm."

I don't think you can read too much into stats but they are alarming.
Student Pilot Certificates are down almost 20% from 1999.
Commercial Pilot Certificates are down also....

It's all here: US Civil Airmen Statistics

Even worse when you realize that most of those applicants are now foreign students here to train for their own countries, not US citizens able to work here, unlike the case 10 years ago.

Here's the link to ALPA articles on the subject: http://www.alpa.org/portals/alpa/mag...otShortage.pdf

This one is from February 2001. While exact circumstances have changed, the history and the potential consequences remain the same: A Short History of Pilot Shortages