The Perfect Storm
03-23-2010 | 07:35 AM
#1
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From: Body at sea level; heart at 70,000+
The Perfect Storm
Forecast growth is for 75-120 seat aircraft.
Airlines are ordering 75-120 seat aircraft.
There have been significant decreases in mainline capacity.
There have been significant increases in regional capacity.
85,777 pilot shortfall (US) predicted 2010-2025.
Govt attempting to increase hiring mins to 850 or possibly ATP.
Pilot Training is no longer "affordable."
Numerous Regional contracts expire 2010-2015
Major / Legacy Unions trying to keep a "fence" around scope.
Is "the perfect storm" scheduled for 2015.
Airlines are ordering 75-120 seat aircraft.
There have been significant decreases in mainline capacity.
There have been significant increases in regional capacity.
85,777 pilot shortfall (US) predicted 2010-2025.
Govt attempting to increase hiring mins to 850 or possibly ATP.
Pilot Training is no longer "affordable."
Numerous Regional contracts expire 2010-2015
Major / Legacy Unions trying to keep a "fence" around scope.
Is "the perfect storm" scheduled for 2015.
03-23-2010 | 07:43 AM
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This "perfect storm" will either be very good or very bad for us depending on how the scope language holds up. If they hold the line then you'll see the majors buying these airplanes. If not, well then the regionals will. I imagine if they go mainline it won't be quite as dramatic since the costs will be higher but even still, it will be more jobs either way.
03-23-2010 | 08:07 AM
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Well I REALLY hope these aircraft (C series, etc) go mainline, but if the past is any indicator of the future, we're in trouble.
PS: I work at a regional and would possible stand much to gain if they came to the regionals.
PS: I work at a regional and would possible stand much to gain if they came to the regionals.
03-23-2010 | 08:57 AM
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From: SkyWest Capt.
This "perfect storm" will either be very good or very bad for us depending on how the scope language holds up. If they hold the line then you'll see the majors buying these airplanes. If not, well then the regionals will. I imagine if they go mainline it won't be quite as dramatic since the costs will be higher but even still, it will be more jobs either way.
What I'm worried about is "Open Skies" and "Anti-Trust Immunity.”
UAL MEC News Release
03-23-2010 | 09:23 AM
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From: EMB-145
03-23-2010 | 09:51 AM
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The advantage of always being negative is that you are never disappointed by the outcome. Also, no bravery is required like taking a positive approach to something. Negativism is as rampant in this business, like the rest of the country, as fear. Too many people are so afraid they are almost in mental gridlock. Pilots in industry are showing a profound lack of intestinal fortitude.
03-23-2010 | 09:57 AM
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So if we all can get through 4 more years we have it made? Yes, I am on board. Just about that time the government will be coming through with my medical insurance subsidy! So I got that going for me too. The future looks bright.
Last edited by usmc-sgt; 03-23-2010 at 02:29 PM. Reason: Why is there a funny face above my post and how do I get rid of it?
03-23-2010 | 10:10 AM
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From: MD80
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