The Perfect Storm
 

Forecast growth is for 75-120 seat aircraft.
Airlines are ordering 75-120 seat aircraft.
There have been significant decreases in mainline capacity.
There have been significant increases in regional capacity.
85,777 pilot shortfall (US) predicted 2010-2025.
Govt attempting to increase hiring mins to 850 or possibly ATP.
Pilot Training is no longer "affordable."
Numerous Regional contracts expire 2010-2015
Major / Legacy Unions trying to keep a "fence" around scope.

Is "the perfect storm" scheduled for 2015. :confused:

the shift will be to larger aircraft to offset a number of those issues. The next big growth spurt will be at the mainline level when this starts imho

This "perfect storm" will either be very good or very bad for us depending on how the scope language holds up. If they hold the line then you'll see the majors buying these airplanes. If not, well then the regionals will. I imagine if they go mainline it won't be quite as dramatic since the costs will be higher but even still, it will be more jobs either way.

Well I REALLY hope these aircraft (C series, etc) go mainline, but if the past is any indicator of the future, we're in trouble.

PS: I work at a regional and would possible stand much to gain if they came to the regionals.

100% agree.................
I'm 100% sure that domestic scope will hold where it's at and probable become more restrictive as mainline pilots negotiate their contracts over the next 5-10 years.

What I'm worried about is "Open Skies" and "Anti-Trust Immunity.”

UAL MEC News Release

It appears so. Many storm clouds on the horizon, but after three decades of constant down sliding following deregulation, it appears we've hit bottom and will probably see a bounce back up for a change.

I do think "the perfect storm" IS coming...for airline management.

Good for them. We've been living it the last 10 years.

The advantage of always being negative is that you are never disappointed by the outcome. Also, no bravery is required like taking a positive approach to something. Negativism is as rampant in this business, like the rest of the country, as fear. Too many people are so afraid they are almost in mental gridlock. Pilots in industry are showing a profound lack of intestinal fortitude.

So if we all can get through 4 more years we have it made? Yes, I am on board. Just about that time the government will be coming through with my medical insurance subsidy! So I got that going for me too. The future looks bright.

I think what you meant to say was low expectations leads to high morale. Kind of like restaurant food, it tastes better when you come in with low expectations.