Originally Posted by Airborne1 (Post 783241)

I agree. Pilots are a dime a dozen and I don’t think that will change any time soon, possible not even within the next ten years. The industry is cyclical and there fore labor (pilot) demand is also cyclical. Please do not think there will be a pilot shortage. The pilot shortage marketing strategy for flight schools is a very old one. Then, airlines capitalize on the idea also by lowering wages because pilots are willing to work for less to position them selves for when wages go back up when the shortage actually comes. I hope I am wrong but I doubt there will ever be a shortage.

Originally Posted by FL510 (Post 783598)

LOL, you are absolutely right! Kit Darby has made a fortune for the last 30 years (yes I'm old) predicting an impending pilot shortage. I first heard his claims back in 1983 when he was VP of sales at Future Airline Pilots Association (FAPA). I have been waiting for this pilot shortage my entire career.

Originally Posted by JungleBus (Post 783624)

Really? You obviously missed 2006-2008, there was a pretty severe shortage, the worst regionals were hiring guys with brand new commercial-multi licenses and many regionals were paying hiring bonuses to those with previous 121 time. It would have continued and worsened had the economy not gone off the cliff at the same time age 65 went through, because while new student starts were up somewhat, they weren't up *that* much.

Now, of course Kit & Co always implied the shortage would be at the major airline level, not just at the crappiest regional airlines. The existence of our current 2-tier system ensures that the majors will always have a steady supply of qualified, eager candidates. However, even the crappy regionals having to fight for qualified candidates is a very positive development because it is the ability of majors to play regionals off of each other that has traditionally kept their labor costs low, and therefore exerted downward pressure on major airline payrates and work rules. The shortage will return within a few years, it will again be confined to regional airlines, but even this will be a positive development for the profession as a whole.

Originally Posted by jayray2 (Post 783310)

Just a question, where is the threat in that? Most pilots in other countries are far better compensated than we are, are you talking pilots or other workers? It is kind of hard to ship a rampers job overseas. Although it wouldn't bother me if they tried to ship some management jobs overseas.

Originally Posted by JungleBus (Post 783624)

Really? You obviously missed 2006-2008, there was a pretty severe shortage, the worst regionals were hiring guys with brand new commercial-multi licenses and many regionals were paying hiring bonuses to those with previous 121 time. It would have continued and worsened had the economy not gone off the cliff at the same time age 65 went through, because while new student starts were up somewhat, they weren't up *that* much.

Now, of course Kit & Co always implied the shortage would be at the major airline level, not just at the crappiest regional airlines. The existence of our current 2-tier system ensures that the majors will always have a steady supply of qualified, eager candidates. However, even the crappy regionals having to fight for qualified candidates is a very positive development because it is the ability of majors to play regionals off of each other that has traditionally kept their labor costs low, and therefore exerted downward pressure on major airline payrates and work rules. The shortage will return within a few years, it will again be confined to regional airlines, but even this will be a positive development for the profession as a whole.

Originally Posted by mwa1 (Post 783974)

a shortage or a shortage at a price. kind of hard to justify leaving school with 100K + in debt for a sub 20K job while other degree plans offer triple this the first year.

Originally Posted by JungleBus (Post 784069)

All this means that when retirements start up again and when the economy takes off, and there's a giant sucking sound of an exodus from the regionals to the majors...there will again be a shortage of pilots at the regionals, particularly the ones who don't pay well and mistreat their pilots. It won't be enough to really justify going into flying for someone considering it as Kit Darby would suggest, but it will be a real opportunity for those of us who would like to see mainline recapture a portion of the flying that has been lost to the regionals.