Just out of curiosity, what do you think is going to happen when the 135's, 140's, and 145's have to be parked?

Have you consider that they will have to be parked? They're not Mad Dogs, they have a shelf life! Here at XJT they're talking about parking the older ones in about 3 years when they come up for D checks.

If you guys begin to park the Embraers in say, the next 3-5 years what would they be replaced with? No one makes anything smaller than a 70 seater anymore, and I promise you, AA is not going to cave on scope, and they shouldn't either. So what then? Props, and codeshares (which means a big reduction of flying for you all), or you guys get IPO'd and start flying for other partners that will allow you to grow into the 70+ seat market. All due respect, I know you're at the top of your list (as you constantly make it a point to remind everyone here), but unless Eagle takes some aggressive measures in the next couple of years, you guys will become another Comair.

Take it for what is worth, this "partnership" with Jetblue is the beginning of something that isn't going away.

The older 140/145's will be parked when their shelf life hits that point. It will be a gradual process. The remainder of the 135's will likely go sooner. We have a couple of hundred airframes.

You don't seem to understand the problem. The problem is just as much AA's as it is Eagle's. As AA's feeder system shrinks with no replacement, AA loses market share and revenue. This is akin to cutting off AA's blood supply. Current APA scope also affects any other feeder, so it's not a "comair" situation per se, but it would be equivilent if ALL of DAL's feeders were slowly being strangled off. Delta would slowly die, just like AA will.

The APA is between a rock and a hard place; If they're successful on strangling AA's revenue, they'll not only strangle off their jobs, but ultimately force AMR into a situation where stopping the hemmoraging will require a BK scenario (probabaly a "pre-packaged" version for a quick entry and exit). If that route happens they'll get far more scope flexibility then a negotiated settlement with the APA that would be more likely to have more limits.

So you're statement that AA (actually the APA) wont cave on scope isn't likely. Scope will be relaxed, the question is when and by what method.

Jet Blue cannot cover many feeder cities with the larger 190's as they are too large and a 70-seat RJ (the smallest future RJ) will be required just as effecient turboprops for other routes and/or frequency. But to digress, for this JB partnership to blossom into what you think it will, would ALSO require the APA to cave on scope.

The bottom line is that if the APA doesn't cave on scope, AA cannot maintain its current network (either domestically or internationally) and will have to shrink and continue to outsource routes and flying via JB type relationships. Since JB doesn't operate smaller regional aircraft, most of the smaller cities would have to be abandoned to the competition, with former AA customers originating there having no choice but to forge new realtionships with other carriers and build their miles there, likely never to return.

It's bad competitive situation to be in and considering the huge demands virtually ALL mainline labor is expecting, it seems AA will have to plan for an internal 9/11 that they'll have to deal with and there's really only one clean way to overcome that at one time.

Which would be a good time for AA to forge a new relationship with an airline having a fleet of modern 70 seat airliners. It would be just another code share. If Eagle isn't sold, they could continue to fly their 145's until all are past their expiration date and build a new fleet of 70 seat turboprops. The AA pilots still think props are for kids so they won't mind.

what a bunch of children hoping to grab the brass ring to mainline at AE's expense. Most of you have no idea what is in APA's Scope. Would be a good read to see what can be done before talking scenarios.

eYou seem to think Eagle is only about E-145 class aircraft. We will have 47 modern 70-seat airliners.

Republic Holdings has something lie 80 E-170 type aircraft with how many more on order ?

Not many and those you have are commited elsewhere. To buy more to use here would require the same scope relaxation that would make Eagle that much more attractive to AMR.

Why forge too many deals ensuring others but AMR get a slice of the AA revenue (and profit) pie ?

That's just money paid to others to perform a service, so why not do it yourself and pocket everything ? Now, make no mistake AMR NEEDS that (another regional) to ensure a successful whipsaw scenario both against AA employees and Eagle, so neither get too much control and ALL are at a disadvantage leverage-wise, but that's not the same as WANTING to do away with doing something thats made them money (when they want that).

If AMR truly wanted to dump Eagle at any cost, they'd have easily done so by now, but they want their cake and eat it too and that doesn't work for others who will require a chunk of that cheese for themselves. If it worked for them, they (including your bosses) wouldn't have walked several years ago.

Again, best of luck on your dreams of metastisizing your cancer to AMR, but I think your growth will be controlled here and used by them to the extent they want and need it and that wont involve overspreading the patient.

Remember, this announcement also confirmed 22 new CRJ700s to be based at LGA and JFK. I remember when this was rumor and the info I got (for what it's worth) from management was AA was not happy not being able to offer first class service feed in NY. Delta has had 2 class regional feed for some time now, and they didn't want passengers to start comparing. I'm worried about the future, but who isn't? I think this is was a chess move in AMR's defense of the northeast against a rapidly modernizing Delta in the NE.

You still haven't answer the question. You've admitted that the aircraft will have to be retired just as they are elsewhere, but what then?

You're operating under the assumption that APA will relax scope because it's the only way to hang on to market share. Well I ask you then:

1. What keeps AA from expanding into the "large" RJ market themselves, if cost is compatible to a high paid regional work force (The preferred option).

2. What makes you think all of the capacity needs to be replace?

3. Jetblue, SWA, Airtran, all serve small to medium markets in addition to the larger markets, they simply have less frequencies than some legacies as to fill the seats. So what keeps AA from either growing the current partnership? Establishing future partnerships? And/or even worst establishing a codeshare with the likes of Republic or any other player that's not in direct competition that could come in and serve the gaps?

First the facts: The only strength left at CAL and AA is scope, it protects their careers, and increasing that scope may actually be the saving grace at both companies. Will Arpey and his croonies allow it? They will probably fight it tooth and nail, but they are not going to shoot themselves in the @ss either. They stand to lose much more if revenue continues to fall than the pilots, so they'll have to work out a deal that is satisfactory to both parties

Opinion: The preferred outcome would be AA recapturing all if not most jet feed, even if the initial pay scales are not stellar. I find it a bit pathetic, that you're cheering for APA to cave on scope for your own gain. You my friend are in the minority, most folks do not want to stay at the regional level, and would happily give up their seats if it meant putting back those seats where they belong...at the legacies. The aircraft you fly, those routes, those seats, and that brand name does not belong to any of us, they belong to mainline.

Would it bother you if you had to fly a prop again, if that's what the regionals became? Just and honest question, because I respect your choice to stay at the regional level (although you're still in the minority), but would it bother you?


This is your opinion, unless you work in marketing non of us can actually attest to what markets can be served better with what equipment. As I said earlier, the LCC's already cover a great deal of those markets, they just do it less frequently.

Again, this is your opinion, and you have no way of knowing (unless you have access to non-publicly disclosed information) what can and cannot be covered by either other partnerships, codeshares, and/or in house using AA's own metal.

I suggest you learn how to read better, we're trying to have a mature debate here, if you don't like what you're reading, you can either contribute or move along, free forum baby.

Good question. How the APA plays it will determine that.

The APA keeps that from happening. The only options they say they're willing to consider are economically and competitively unviable.

Their current capacity requires a certain amount of feed. If the feed shrinks then mainline load factor decreases and AA aggrivates internal overcapacity.

Those are completely different business models not dependent on feed. As such they dont require smaller regional aircraft for "catchment" purposes. They also fly larger mainline size aircraft that can only do so much feed wise from small to medium catchment cities.



Your "facts" are based on the interest of labor in general and pilots in pirticular. "Scope" is a concept that only IMPEDES airline management and is NOT considered one of their remaining "strengths". Mainline control of regioanl ops would only work if the COMPETITION's regional ops were also controlled on an equal cost basis.

If you find my comments "pathetic", it's because you are operating on emotion and see something in them that is not there. I have no desire to take away from AA pilots what has already been improperly stripped from them. I (as a pilot) have no say either. My comments are based on undeniable economics, not personal desire. As for my personal desires, I don't care what I fly as long as I'm compensated fairly for it. A Q400 wouldn't dent my ego one bit.

If you want to continue to hope and pray the APA pulls a rabbit out of a hat, that's fine, but personally I see that as a trick that doesn't produce anything real only fools others into accepting a reality that doesn't exist.

You grossly overestimate your own worth my friend. Delta hasover 50% of their flying being done by regionals. That is not the case with AA.