OCCP

Rolling the dice is the only thing you can do, its a complete crapshoot. The "opportunity for a quicker upgrade" can fade away in the blink of an eye. XJT had an upgrade time just under 2 years when I started. I'm still an FO after 5 years and 3 months, might upgrade at the 6 year mark. I'd would advise someone to take the worst job offered to them because whoever is the bottom feeder today will usually have a quick upgrade and be the "go to" company in a few years. I realize it is a backwards way of thinking but many pilots have got ahead by doing this.

duvie

Union pilots (probably a low percentage) would like to think their right seat ALPA dues will grant them favor with DAL, et al in the impending pilot shortage, but I don't believe they will. Here is why:

1. As evidenced by the larger number of independent unions, (DALPA movement, USAPA, and of course SWAPA, IPA, APA and others) ALPA unity is at an all time low*.
*(Disclaimer: That is not to say that many pilots don't recognize ALPA for what it is, a name stamped on the letterhead of your local MEC. The real importance isn't what precedes the "--PA" at your airline, but who you elect to represent you)
2. The majors won't have the luxury of being particularly choosey come 2015.
3. Finally, the least abstract and subjective of my arguments; a helluva lot of skywesters have found greener pastures. If there was some kind of stigma against skywest pilots I think there'd be some empirical evidence by now.

Take this with every other "grain of salt" you read on here

JetJock16

Wow, you're way off base with most of the above. As many have said, all classes are a go except RJ upgrade because they can't afford to lose the FO's. Once FO staffing improves the classes will continue.

As for non-union hiring, why does the future look any different than the past? Answer: it's not, for hiring purposes they don't care that we're non-union and never have. Our pilots get interviewed and hired at the same rates as anyone else. In all my years of commuting I’d say that 9 out of 10 mainline pilots (DAL,AA, US, SWA, AAI, F9) I’ve come across have made the statement the we at SKW don’t need a union as long as our relationship with Mgmt remains.

5 years ago I voted yes to ALPA and 5 years ago I would have told you we didn’t immediately need a union but when you looked at where SKW was headed we needed representation. Today, sadly our relations have deteriorated and we need a union and we need it now.

rickair7777

You're fantasizing, this has never been the case, and probably never will be.

- Union leaders don't hire pilots, managers do...you get one guess what they think about unions.

- Most pilots, if they are professional enough to get involved in hiring, are not likely to hold a carrier's union status against one single individual pilot who personally didn't have much say in the matter.

t's remotely possible that someday a major pilot group will give up compensation while negotiating a CBA in order to secure a contractual requirement that their company only hire union or ALPA pilots. But for that to happen a majority of pilots at some major are going to have to decide that it's worth giving up some money for. If you think that's going to happen, you're not just fantasizing, you're delusional and probably need to have your FAA medical status reviewed

BoilerUP

Sure they will...

THERE IS NO PILOT SHORTAGE

THERE WILL BE NO PILOT SHORTAGE

...only a shortage of pilots willing to work for regional airline/crappy 135 compensation & lifestyle.

duvie

Boiler,

I understand the philosophy: keep your expectations low and you won't be disappointed....That being said, given the upcoming retirements I think there is a better chance of the majors hiring like crazy, than anything close to what we've seen in the last ten years.

I can't tell the future, bizarre things happen, but as a betting man (aren't we all in this business??) I'd be willing to wager that (non-legacy or well connected) regional FOs will be getting interviews at the majors before 2020, even with a bad economy, terrorist event, you name it. Just too many seats coming open and not enough guys to fill them

BoilerUP

I agree such a scenario is likely.

That has happened as recently as the current Delta hiring wave; reports of CRJ FOs from places like ASA getting hired at Mother Delta. Jetblue has also taken more than one regional airline FO during their current hiring wave.

Your point is well taken, though; we very likely will see major/legacy hiring the likes of which you and I have not seen in our short airline careers. That will not mean those airlines won't still have thousands of resumes for hundreds of jobs...there will NEVER be a shortage of labor 'at the top' of any industry...only at the bottom where compensation & lifestyle is felt to be lacking (ie. regionals).

Also, don't discount a push for a "Fair Treatment of Experienced Pilots Act II, Electric Bugaloo" to extend retirement to 70...

Klsytakesit

PruneJuice.....hiring is determined by two groups of people at every "bigger" airline in the country . HR(people dept. etc..) and they all dislike unions or mgmt pilots, instructors etc...and all of them are ex-military or wish they were ex-military and none of them will admit to their neighbors that they are in a union. Pilot unions(by the very nature of the type of people they represent) have nowhere near the pride, professionalism or power that real trade unions have. Better advice is to go to the bottom where pic time is more readily available and fly the max....

boxer6

Ask anybody who has interviewed at the majors (DAL/UAL etc..) if they didn't have a Capt. interviewer...maybe along with an HR interviewer. The line pilot does have veto power just as the HR person would. Plus, I think some of these majors have a pilot board that interviewees must pass.

Now add a dynamic of a regional partner flying struck work, if a strike should happen. What do you think the odds are of said pilot at said feeder flying struck work being hired?

Now, if said feeder was non-union and therefore could not refuse flying only because said pilot group voted down representation a few years ago that would otherwise allow them to refuse flying struck work, how do you think that goes over with a mainline pilot?

Granted, its not a highly likely scenario but then think about the 70 seaters in IAH or EWR on the UCAL system. What would those pilots do if UCAL suddenly puts CAL code on those flights in clear violation of CAL scope language? Would pilots in a unionized shop have more leverage to refuse flying than the non-union outfit? I think the answer is obvious.

rickair7777

There's a difference between non-union and scab. I agree that a scab would be at high risk of getting not hired. But the Captain interviewer may not be a line pilot, or he may be hand-picked by management (ie not a union sympathizer).

In the past SKW has not forced pilots to fly controversial work. I can attest to that personally...a couple days before that SKY IAH stuff started I called the company and told them I was not going to be be flying my leg into IAH the ways things stood with the legal issue at that time. They didn't give me any grief about it. Shortly thereafter the MEC wrote a letter absolving the SKW pilots of blame for that business. I had already told the company "no" but with a permission slip from ALPA, I didn't have a leg to stand on.

It's theoretically possible that you could get bad blood over something like that, but a lot of things would have to go wrong. Also a lot of pilots in good conscience would not want to punish all pilots from a certain airline over the actions of a few. I voted yes on the last drive and refused the IAH flying...the guys on the opposite end of the spectrum are mostly lifers who are not going to be applying to any majors!

Majors will not want to ever allow any sort of union hiring preference...that might encourage more unions at the regionals and drive up their costs! But even if all regionals were alpa you would still need a national seniority list to take pilots out of the competitive equation.