Originally Posted by embraer (Post 1189410)

That was always a misnomer. 2012 was (is) the year retirements at the legacies begin. It really doesn't pick up pace until 2013/2014 but 2012 is the beginning.

Many warped that into the idea of a pilot shortage beginning in 2012 which is not the case and was never proposed. But you know how rumors go...kind of like that children's game telephone.

The shortage depends on many factors coming together at once (see my original post). Yes, another crisis could happen that would change everything. Another 9/11 could happen...heck, an asteroid could hit the earth tomorrow making all of this moot.

Originally Posted by Senior Skipper (Post 1189682)

1. Notice how the date keeps on being pushed back? 2012 was just the latest date.

2. You're asking for a lot of factors to come together at once.

Just because we want a pilot shortage to happen doesn't mean it will happen.

Originally Posted by johnso29 (Post 1189698)

Of course the dates were pushed back. Age 65.

Originally Posted by embraer (Post 1189389)

I don't get your reverse rationalization...or your numbers. I suggest looking at them again.

There are not enough active regional pilots to staff all the majors. Not even at current passenger levels. Air travel increases every year and is projected to accelerate. Even if every regional pilot today were to flow to the majors it wouldn't be enough.

I also suggest learning about airline business models. Airlines don't base their business on flying as many people as possible in as few flights as possible. If that were the case all majors would be flying 747s and A380s.

Their model depends on frequency. They understand that people need/desire to travel at different times of day. The more hours of the day you cover between city pairs the more passengers you carry.

As opposed to how some of you think it goes: stick one 747 on a route and transport two loads of people per day and be done with it.

If that is how the airline business worked airlines would have moved in that direction in the 60s.

Bottom line is that airlines need frequencies. The more per hour the better, particularly between the busiest city pairs.

Originally Posted by FlyJSH (Post 1189740)

Going with your hyperbole, one 747 is bad, three 737s are better, but a hundred 402s is great!

If only 152s had air conditioning...

Originally Posted by Senior Skipper (Post 1189682)

1. Notice how the date keeps on being pushed back? 2012 was just the latest date.

2. You're asking for a lot of factors to come together at once.

Just because we want a pilot shortage to happen doesn't mean it will happen.

Originally Posted by embraer

Throw in the cost of fuel per mile flown along with intangibles such as aircraft desirability ( AA's and Delta's MD-80s are recent examples of undesired aircraft by the flying public, anything with a prop has already been for a few years now) and you can see how it is no hyperbole, but reality.

Originally Posted by BoilerUP (Post 1189758)

You really can't be this naive.

Airlines don't give a damn about "aircraft desirability" to the public, they care about economics - acquisition cost and operating cost. MD80s are going bye-bye not because they are "undesired aircraft by the flying public", but because they are getting old & expensive to maintain and burn more fuel than newer aircraft with similar capacity.

See: Delta adding MD90s while shedding 50-seat CRJs.

See also: UniCal maintaining and growing their Q400 feed