Absolutely, a high loss rate might not be a bad thing at all in the military context if they ultimately got a vast quantity of intel data (they did) and delivered some bombs on the right foreheads (they did) at a reasonable dollar cost.

I think the preds got the job done a lot cheaper and faster than trying to re-start and/or ramp production of suitable manned assets (U2? P-8? C-12?) and saturate the skies with them. You'd also need pointy-nose to drop the bombs unless you used the P-8.

Avoiding unneeded exposure of personnel to hazard is a huge plus as well.

So I think they got their bang-for-buck with preds, but I'm sure they would have preferred a lower loss rate. There were several actors at play...

Some of that was growing pains, new application of technology

General Atomics is NOT an aviation company, and they certainly had some learning curves...among other things they were late to actually employ rated professional pilots into their development and test programs so they probably didn't understand a lot of procedural processes that we take for granted.

Preds were needed quickly (and cheaply) so GA was able to rush them into service without doing the kind of in-depth validation and testing required for certification of manned assets. They also intentionally did not build in much redundancy...cheaper to buy a new airplane if a system fails, rather then install redundant systems on the whole fleet.

So I'll given them a "mission accomplished" within the context of what they needed to do. But that context was fast and cheap, and IN NO WAY WHATSOEVER translates to automated pax aircraft. It also should not translate to unmanned aircraft which share the skies with manned aircraft outside of war zones.

 

Come again? I agree that the things make more sense to engineers than pilots (particularly virtually everything in the GCS) but GA-ASI has had real pilots on board since before they were GA-ASI.

 

Yes, and I know several of them but they didn't have enough, in the right places at first.

 

Apparently not. No person I know that is still in is familiar with a 50% loss rate for unmanned systems.

 

Well you're not talking to the right people. Preds specifically, but the number is a few years old and may have been diluted by recent fleet growth.

IIRC, they'd lost about 65 preds, which was close to half the fleet a few years ago.

I'm not going to do the research for you, but I'm sure you can find the numbers open source if you look hard enough. Or go ask on the military forum, enough folks over there should know.

 

In a word, yes.

A car crash doesn't happen in a vacuum. I would bet that 99 out of 100 automotive crashes are caused by driver error, and not a mechanical failure or some external force.

If someone is too cheap to buy a plane ticket, and is a poor enough driver that they wind up dead... so be it. Personal transportation is the responsibility of the individual, and it's not society's fault when they suck at it.

The fittest shall survive. As a species, we've long since wandered too far from that idea.


In fact, I'd be in favor of requiring everyone to ride motorcycles.

 

Go to Ameriflight! They're hiring. Great experience.

 

I agree with you. I feel that all automobiles should be banned to prevent any further accidents. Buses and trains for local transportation and planes for longer routes. That way all "regional" pilots flying for nationalized airlines would receive the much better pay and much better benefits of government employees. Its a win win win.

 

http://www.ntsb.gov/safety/mwl_2012_...bus_safety.pdf

Travel by buses is among the safest modes of transportation. However...
Statistics

Nationwide, more than 700 million passengers nearly the entire population of Europe-are transported by buses[1] annually. Most travel to and from their destinations safely. Yet despite the strong safety record of buses, according to the FMCSA, there were more than 250 people killed and 20,000 injured in bus-related crashes in 2009.[2]
From 2000-2007, there were 1,093 fatal accidents involving large buses, resulting in 1,315 fatalities and 3,471 injuries. Large buses are often used to provide charter/tour scheduled service, commuter service and shuttle service.

 

Short term fix for Pilot Shortage will be 67. Not if, but when.