It's pretty far off for Px and cargo, so far off our generation shouldn't have to worry, but as far as long term planning and the next generation of aircraft being designed, I think Airbus and Boeing would be stupid not to attempt to make whatever it is they make next single-pilot capable. At least then they can stick one pilot and a FA up there, but such an aircraft would probably 20-30 years out from coming on line. It's just a steady march.

But...there is stuff that can be done with UAVs and modern technology that replaces aircraft. Not much reason to do traffic watch these days with all the modern technology all over the place. UAVs are coming on line that can do things like pipeline patrol and the FAA has recently opened the path for getting an operating certificate. Other survey data is likely to be stored and traded, rather than replicated all the time. Some of these ARE just right around the corner IMO.

 

I think the risk analysis of requiring parents to purchase seats for "under age 2" infants was based on the increased risk of putting those travelers "on the road", so not unheard of argument. But not an argument that's been used in negotiations, yet.

As a society, in whole, it is an interesting one.

Pipeline patrol, some traffic watch, even banner towing seems like a natural for UAVs--not much risk to commercial operators, either

GF

 

I keep saying, a single pilot airliner is the same as a no-pilot airliner...there are enough pilot incapacitation events each year (I've heard the number six) that any such aircraft would have to be able to fly itself, make decisions about weather, deal with any malfunctions, pick a spot, and land...all with equivalent safety to what we have today.

The cost of that would be horrendous...getting rid of the FO (especially a regional FO) is not going to pay for it

 

Yeah - perhaps it is not yet ready for prime time carrying peeps.

Air Force drone crash 4 months ago, $10 million:
Drone crash in Nevada costs US Air Force nearly $10 million | Fox News

Navy drone crash (2012), drone cost $126million:
Navy drone crashes in Maryland - CNN.com

 

Ir is not going to happen. But there are people tying to make money by pretending that it will.

1. Look at the accident rate. And also look at the accident rate of single pilot biz jets. Insurance companys are going to want 2 pilots on the aircraft, period.

2. You need a pressurized and temp controlled cabin for both pax and freight, so the weight savings is nil.

3. UAVs are remote piloted, not unpiloted. So what is the benefit in civilian operations of putting the pilots at the end of a fragile data link?

4. Look at the number of mechanical issues that can prevent CAT III/Autoland. Now imagine grounding every airplane every time one of them happens. Then expand that thinking to the entire flight envelope.

5. The Global Hawk block 30 has been cancelled. Block 40 might also get canned. Meanwhile U-2s are getting their lives extended (again).

Every one of us on this board is going to be dead and gone before large commercial airplanes are flying with less than 2 pilots.

 

Since widespread use began about ten years ago, the DoD has lost about 50% of the predator fleet to non-combat accidents (also one, maybe two, birds were shot down). That's not a safety record that's ready for 121 just yet.

 

It's not that I dont believe you, but that's a pretty dramatic number and I'd love to see a reference. That's crazy!

 

I'm right with you rickair7777, both of u r comments are true to its fact, but as a military member I do prefer to loose money than life, combat wise, business wise, shouldn't change,is a whole different animal.....cheers !!!!

 

Johnny, there are sources out there that can corroborate the fact, they are classified by class, ie, pov, military, aviation , civilian, etc all on what is considered force strength, every month report we get one or two aviation related and always involve uav lost control or ch47, door fall in mid air or uav fail launch, is out there.....

Hooah.......is an army thing !!!!

 

It's well known in the military.