Eagle will be parted out slowly. It will be a long slow death and people like mason32 will hold out until the end thinking great things are to come. I wish no ill will on anybody or any pilot group. But if you work for eagle now is the time to leave, eagle will sooner or later be no more

False. There are far too many pilots at the regionals. Even the Devil himself Roger Cohen says the regionals currently have 300 too many 50 seaters which is 2-3000ish pilots too many after the transition to larger RJs.
Don't fall in to this false sense of security because Eagle is offering sign on bonuses. These are temporary band aids to float them a little while until they figure out what they are going to do. If there was a true shortage pay would be going up not down.
They can shut Eagle down far faster than most believe. They have plenty of trump cards and one is to put mainline planes to fill gaps. Either way it will shrink way down and if the intention is to only have 60 airplanes at Eagle they can put 10-20 at Mesa, a few at Wisky, Skywest and Eagle is done.

For OP there is no way to tell at this point. I would wait and see if the proposal goes through. If it doesn't I would imagine it will not bode well for Eagle. Also your math is off as it only considers people leaving Eagle will be flow throughs. If it starts going to 30 a month after Sept. you can add another 10-20 to UAL, Delta ect. plus FOs leaving.
I have flown with FOs here at Eagle that came from Comair and Endeavor. I have seen Eagle FOs leave for Comair and Pinnacle. You just never know. I have even flown with Eagle FOs that were hired 20 years ago left Eagle and ended up back as a new hire at Eagle.
Good luck. That is a very hard decision only you can make and depends on many variables such as where you live and age.

In Masons defense he has been VERY accurate in recent events with where things are going and the timelines. Not to say he knows all but he surely seems to know more than anybody around here making predictions. Secondly, I'm quite certain he's AA not Eagle therefore the outcome of Eagle has no impact on him.

Mason is not with AE. He's with AA. FYI.

I'm assuming the 2 plans are AAGs (bad) and APAs (better), hopefully we get the good outcome.

I'm 30 years old, I wish I was 23 or so and still a kid.

If Eagle gets the good outcome it will be the first time in the 17+ years that I have worked there, probably much longer than that.

You're listening to Cohen? I stopped reading right after that comment. That's like listening to the White House press secretary. Only job is to convince you what the boss wants you to think. Cohen does not speak for AA.

In the past they could replace a company like Eagle. It isn't so easy now. If you seriously think they could, then you're really out of touch with the state of the industry. Even AA upper management knows; which is why they want a 10 year contract with no amendment round. They need to get through the next decade as main line hiring goes through the roof and strips the regionals of every hit able pilot.

There are more retirements at the mainlines over the next 10 years than there are pilots in the entire regional industry. Do the math yourself. Guess when it really starts to pick up? Think its coincidence that everybody is getting in contract talks while a majority of pilots still think as you?

I think people look past Cape Air. There is a company with solid reputation. If you already have jet time, getting more PIC time at a company like that might be better than lateral. It's not TPIC, but you might develop a better attitude and get a little better pay check.

If your looking at Compass:

As of the last award we have 575 pilots on property, with 310ish eligible for flow. In a perfect world all 310 would go, but having flown with some of the guys, it sounds like a few may hold back for other opportunities or they are comfortable where they are (50+ years old) and don't want to commute to reserve at DAL.

Mind you, there will be other guys outside of the flows that will leave for greener pastures like UAL, AA, NKS, SWA, etc. but we are getting to the point where upgrades wont be guaranteed quickly like they have been for most of the new hires. My estimate is at least 3-5 years now upgrade time for people starting after the first of the year...We have 265ish pilots on the SL that aren't flow eligible and with the end state being around 450ish, it's just something everyone may want to consider. I think we are done hiring FO's for MSP/DTW and all are going to LAX now (about 20-30 more FO's), the company will build another pool after this round of new hires, for the next set of flows in 2015.

The other problem is even with the future upgrades is finding the guys to backfill into FO spots, who won't be guaranteed quick upgrades. I'm excited about the future here at CPZ and it is a great airline, but I worry in 2 years if we will be able to find people to fill the right seat...

I made a lateral move out of Eagle about 9 years ago. It worked for me but I also made the move as a street captain (multiple downgrades at Eagle but I was typed). I would not have made the move to be a FO at another airline. I think it would be harder to explain moving FO to FO.

Things change so fast at regional airlines, what looks good today may not remain that way in a couple years.

Best of luck in your decision

That's not right, 524 is what Flica shows.

FLICA only shows pilots that are eligible to bid (doesn't include management, instructors, LOA's), look at the latest award...

Ya well you're partially right I guess, only management seems to be missing.

Sure

False
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Explain to me how giving 60 airplanes to other regionals is going to cover 230 airplanes worth of flying over night?

You are part of what wrong with this industry, you need someone to tell you things. Go read the company financials and mainlines' SCOPE to understand that there will be over 200 RJs parked over the next 2 years. But I fail to see where there would be a surplus of pilots at the regional level. Last I checked the RJs aren't being replaced on a 1-1 basis but the pilots leaving outpace the number of pilots incoming by a large margin. RAH who has been hiring the most has not been able to grow its seniority list by much and has already said they will sacrifice 50 seaters for the Ejets in 2014 if they are unable to grow their list by 500 pilots. Do you think there is a coincidence of hiring at the legacy level with rip lanes parking at the regional level? For example at Eagle they are offering unrestricted flow after September, well September happens to be when the E140 start being parked. But they are likely to park them sooner but have to restrict the flow as RAH is unable to fully staff all the flying they do for AA.

Eagle can't be shut down over night due to market forces as well as contract language that protects furloughs. I do understand that they can violate those contract provision but they can do the same with the new commitments they are offering. It would take them years to shut the operation down. And if they do it mainly by shifting the flying to mainline then that's exactly what we want but the next 800 eagle guys hired at AA aren't part of just a contract provision but a court order and that's not as easy to violate.

Partially right? you guess? sure?

The award doesn't lie...we have 575 pilots on the seniority list...

Mason, any word from your side of the house? As an Eagle guy, I would welcome this proposal and hope that it goes through. The big question for me is, should both sides come together and agree, what says the company will accept? That's the big problem as far as I'm concerned. They would give up their whipsaw with one carrier leaving the fold and move these planes into a higher operating cost environment. Does the proposal address this part? I can just see that as the big hangup.

I think you might have quoted the wrong post from Mason, in this post he doesn't reference the deal that APA is trying to make. I am just making sure people don't believe you are ok with the current company proposal.

Lateral moves from Eagle?
 

You are correct that the current company proposal blows and isn't ok in current form. I did quote the wrong post from Mason. Just checking to see if he has heard anything.

May I suggest looking at the master Seniority list and compare the new Capts award number and their SL #. PM if you have questions.

I don't think those numbers have been cleared of people leaving for a while. My number from that list and my actual seniority number differ by 50. The number flica shows when bidding is much more accurate.

How about if we hear something from ALPA rather than from some internet character?

The silence of ALPA is astonishing…..

What silence, the MEC chairman sent a blast on Friday, he has also sent email with the commuter issues. NY and ORD sent blast and you had the holiday mid week. The MEC is set to met on 2 Jan in DFW to decide how to proceed with the proposal, this is after the pilots give the LEC their thoughts by email. I believe they have kept us up to date with what is happening. The company wants answers prior to the 14th the same date that the EXJ vote happens to close. We are taking our time and there is no need to rush, we have a contract that still has 7 years before it's amendable.

Me thinks the MEC will send this to the pilot group for a vote.

It will pass.

They may be meeting with APA on the 2nd.

I am not certain if this is what Mason was alluding to, but I can tell you that unlike the last MEC whom was comprised of company men, this group of guys won't sell us down the river. The last MEC thrived on division and would never allow talks with APA even if it was to get ideas and comparing notes.

Eagle pilots are not stupid, we are vulnurable and the other pilot are salivating at us failing and them getting the flying. Just go read all the post around here with guys saying that they might get AA flying if Eagle fails.

I don't think it will go to a pilot group. NY and DFW will vote against this current deal, this is a bad deal for the senior guys and the boys at the academy won't like it. Don't know how the MIA guys will vote vote and the ORD guys believe in placing anything in the pilot's hands. I think this deal is dead on the MECs' hands. But there will be negotiations taking place in Jan, if we vote it won't be until likely March and we will probably see Ejets awarded to someone else as they will say we took to long and they need the airplanes Early in 2015. There will be airplanes awarded to someone else in my opinion to put further pressure.

I agree, they want them now!!! Well they should awarded them before, is just part of the game on making pressure so more senior guys leave. They will do whatever they want no matter how we vote...

Its all part of the plan, I keep remembering they saying to the judge that eagle will do 60% of the feed. I think that currently we are doing more than 60%.

That was 60% of the AA feed, but with AA and US Airways merging and SCOPE tightening regarding to the total number of huls at the regionals we will see Eagle and many of the regionals shrink, don't be fooled by some regionals seeing a little growth today, this is the largest regionals will be, the regionals will be at least 25% of what they are today by 2016. Back to topic, Eagle has roughly 230 airframes and the SCOPE will likely lead to sub 500 airframes come 2016 at AA. So basically AE does 50% the AA-US feed, you will see Eagle shrink no matter what.

Any news about the displacements coming soon?

Oh yeah, I know. Eagle will shrink no matter what, thats why we have to be strong and keep the line. Nobody will get furlough...

Just terminated and proud of doing so.

Stay strong and vote NO. Send a message to all other regionals out there.

To Mason and any other person "in the know."

It doesn't matter what the facts are. Because perception is reality. Over the last couple years, the pilot group has been lied to or misdirected by both management and the union. This is deplorable. There are also a lot of half-truths spoken or written, so as to give an illusion of credibility. It had become difficult to sort reality with expectations and I think this is intended.

The consequence is there is very little credibility from anyone in a superior position. Even our LEC reps claim to have been misinformed, so their words can not be trusted even if they are trust worthy people.

How can you rely on promises if even basic contractual language is disregarded? As far as the original post? Seek the most reputable outfit. It's better for you psychologically.

ALPA needs to get its house in order. And management deserves no respect.

Making decisions based on innuendo and promises is irresponsible. Take opportunity as it presents itself.

Not all of us feel this way. Please know you're getting a lot of support and encouragement from other groups. But yes, there will always be short-sighted individuals who's mama's didn't teach them to put themselves in other people's shoes.

This is correct. The Eagle leadership is getting help from places nobody would expect. It'll be public soon enough. I'd expect the company next to threaten to farm out the 47 CRJ aircraft and displace 300 Captains if their offer isn't accepted.

It's how they play the game. Trust me. To you guys this is your livelyhood and careers. To them it's a game of how much they can increase profit before the next round of golf next week.

I'm retiring in two years. I'll move along to the sidelines and somebody can have my seat watching the polar caps freeze over. It's been a great career. I'm into my golf game more now anyway. I'd just like to see pilots take our profession back from the bookworms before I retire. I'd also like to see my nephew have a clear future from Eagle. If I can pass a tidbit of info along from time to time, I will.

I hope the rumors of RAH acquiring us due to Garton being over there now are not true.

Thats a lot of CAs..:eek:

Why make a lateral move? JetBlue is hiring at 1500 hrs, Virgin at 2500, and Spirit at 4000. Apply to all three, you have nothing to lose.

I have, so far no calls. I'm hitting the job fair circuit this year as much as I hate it. The pay to play idea really bothers me but it is what it is.