Expect it to get messy before it gets clean.
 

Okay, so roughly 66% of ALL regional pilots have told their (go between) management that they understand supply and demand economics and that they have a (newly) limited commodity. Its a start. Of course, the ONLY reason the regional airlines exist is to have that "B-scale" bottom of the totem pole group to keep labor costs in check for the balance of the industry. Basically, with the majors controlling/owning most everything but flight crews/ mechanics, Regional airlines are nothing more than staffing services. The cost of managing the regional airline is where the Flight Crew/mechanic salary parity goes. Delta pays a 4 year 112 seat airplane F/O $112 and hour while 76 seat regional F/0's pull in around $40/hr. 3/4 of the seats for about 1/3 of the pay.. and the EXACT SAME JOB SKILL SET.
Don't expect the majors to give up this massive bargaining chip without a fight. They have spent BILLIONS in the past to have this position at the table... it's gonna get interesting.

I expect to see the oldest Eagle airplanes go away quickly... The big three suppliers will drag their collective feet at the tables as long as the airplanes are moving. Whoever blinks first will set the tone.

In a way Delta is already moving away from the regional model as it currently stands. Delta has publicly acknowledged that out sourcing so much flying has negatively impacted their brand name. Delta also purchased 717s which will be doing flying that was previously done by their regional carriers. The trend has already started, how long it will take to fully implement and see the regional carriers shrink in size and scope I have no idea.

I think these latest two votes are going to mark a transitional period for the regional airline industry, assuming there isn't a terrorist attack, spike in oil prices, recession, etc., that causes the airline industry to shrink and/or reduce demand for airline pilots.

I think all airline management teams realize what they need to do, but the problem is no regional airline wants to be the first one to sign a contract that has $50,000/year First Officers, only to have something in that first paragraph happen and be saddled with a pilot contract with costs higher than those pilot groups who....ahem....would end up cheaper- like SkyWest, Endeavor, PSA, and the likes. They're in a bind, and there's no "cheap" way out of it. If they knew the economy was going to keep humming along as it has for the past few years, a smart regional could provide the appropriate pay increases for their pilots, absorb the resultant higher costs, but go to the majors offering the RFPs and say, "Hey, yeah, we're more expensive than our competitors, but we can actually staff our airline with pilots at the pay rates we're offering, unlike our competitors bidding on your flying who will leave your customers high and dry for lack of pilots."

That first regionals that do that should start dragging up wages across the board, because whichever regional airline pays that higher rate, paying that first year F/O $50,000/year, is going to get ALL the pilots they want. That will leave the other regionals hurting for pilot recruits. That kind of wage might even pull in all the guys/gals who have those 1,500 hours OUT of their non-flying jobs or non-airline jobs back into the airline biz, temporarily fixing their self-created pilot shortage- which we all know really isn't a shortage at all.....for now.

But my concern is even longer term. I find it hard to believe that major and regional airline management teams are going to let us lowly pilots push them around like this for long. They have got to be doing or lobbying for SOMETHING that will get them around this pesky 1,500 hr. rule. What that "something" is I'm not sure. Perhaps pushing for some sort of "ab initio" program with a defined path to a regional airline first officer seat? Something more sinister? Don't know.

This RJ pilot won't blink. I'd rather quit than make one less penny than I make now. It took me 7 very long years as an FO before being able to hold captain. In those 7 years I never made more than just over $50,000. There are many guys junior to me that will have to wait even longer than I had to wait for an upgrade.

I'm tired of this ****. I'm giving it 2 more years (and even 10) before I call it a career and do something else. There is a finite number of years we are able to do this job. I am tired of the decade long internship. I love this job but I refuse to do it for less. It's time to move up or move out.

For you new guys coming in; don't assume to be in and out in 3 to 5 years. Assume the worst as far as how long you will be at your regional. You never know what may happen next. When voting on new contracts, vote as if you may never be able to leave, just in case you can't. Nothing has happened until it happens. Don't vote as if you already have the upgrade or the job waiting at a legacy. It's past time to demand being paid as professionals from day one.

It's all going according to the plan DAL and ALPA crafted. When regional pay rises to that level the advantage of outsourcing is gone. DAL (and the others, but especially DAL since they've positioned themselves to take advantage of it) will eliminate most RJ flying, taking the CRJ9s and E175s they own to be flown by mainline at the current pay rates in the current DAL PWA. Notice how ALPA is suddenly claiming there's no pilot shortage, it's a pay problem? How convenient.

The skeleton of the regionals will return to the 90s "commuter" airline days code sharing and at risk flying. Endeavor and Envoy will cease to exist. RAH will move toward UAL and AA until they follow suit. Silver and Great Lakes are well positioned for growth in picking up dropped CRJ routes to small cities. SkyWest and its subsidiaries will most likely use their remaining CRJ200s and 700s for at risk flying and use their large airplanes to start a stand alone airline.

It's all going according to the plan...

Can anyone provide the 900 pay scale at DAL? I've heard they have it, but have yet to see any proof or how good it actually is.

Thanks!

highly doubt that outcome. transition from smaller rj's to larger will stem the lack of pilot applicants. you can be unhappy about your fedder contracts all you want, since you do not control the quality then mainline shut up. only resolution are via the owned regionals and just waiting to see whom UAL buys. Any statements regarding costs are moot points for the owned regionals since that information does not exist in public and just because management says anything does not mean it is true.

oh the 717 that dal got, let see, southwest painted them, refurbished the interiors and pulling out of Atlanta as a hub turning to a small focus city. guess that did not have anything to do with that.

we will see, in about 18 months.

Is there a medium point for regional pay? Somewhere that is higher than now, but still less than mainline and will still make it worthwhile for mainline to outsource. I think they will try that, rather than bring it in house. They have become addicted to cheap feed and that labor flexibility (ie. whipsaw). They don't need to raise captain's pay at the regionals, just FO pay, but the union decides how any pay raise is apportioned betw. FO's and CA's. That is one reason we are seeing all these hiring bonuses. What if they start offering a 10K bonus for every new hire for each yr. completed up to yr. 4? They could easily revoke the bonus whenever they want too.

The only way this will move forwards and benefit the pilots is if those 10,000 pilots stick together. In the next weeks, ALPA and Teamsters need to come together and present a single contract framework. Basics of pay rates by aircraft and longevity, pay bumps, soft pay (cancellation, junior manning, DH pay) policies, medical costs and contract longevity. Since Skywest and a few others are due for negotiations soon they need to also present this as their starting point for negotiation. If these 13,000 pilots can work together and make a reasonable and defensible framework then all these no votes will truly mean something.