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Majors To Absorb Regionals In The Future?
Will mainline carriers eventually absorb regionals to protect their feed?
If so, who will be the first and how long before this kind of move might happen? Is it possible this would extend passed wholly owned companies to contract carriers as well? |
Majors enjoy their ultra cheap outsourced flying too much. You might see some of them do a little bit of what Delta is doing with the 717s and fly large RJs themselves as regionals have more trouble staffing and can't accept any more contracts.
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Originally Posted by rcfd13
(Post 1635860)
Majors enjoy their ultra cheap outsourced flying too much. You might see some of them do a little bit of what Delta is doing with the 717s and fly large RJs themselves as regionals have more trouble staffing and can't accept any more contracts.
How else would mainlines hold any pilots at these express units with the amount of movement that could be around the corner? |
I would rather compete for my job at a major than have everyone flow. I'm not kidding.
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Originally Posted by meah
(Post 1635877)
I would rather compete for my job at a major than have everyone flow. I'm not kidding.
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What I believe will happen:
Some mainline carrier will find their most profitable contract carrier, buy them out, and staple everyone to the bottom of the seniority list. No more scope to worry about limiting seat capacity, and they would be able to take advantage of the cheaper regional flying at cost. It's basically a flow without the shenanigans and technical red tape. I can see many people at X carrier accepting a status quo contract renewal if they had a mainline seniority number, and were just waiting to move into a 737/a320 or what have you at normal mainline pay rates. Pilots would come out of the woodwork for an opportunity like that, and every class would be full. The first mainline carrier to do such a thing would not only have the pick of the litter, but would set the tone for the way the industry will look for the foreseeable future. |
Originally Posted by meah
(Post 1635877)
I would rather compete for my job at a major than have everyone flow. I'm not kidding.
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Originally Posted by Navmode
(Post 1635883)
What I believe will happen:
Some mainline carrier will find their most profitable contract carrier, buy them out, and staple everyone to the bottom of the seniority list. No more scope to worry about limiting seat capacity, and they would be able to take advantage of the cheaper regional flying at cost. It's basically a flow without the shenanigans and technical red tape. I can see many people at X carrier accepting a status quo contract renewal if they had a mainline seniority number, and were just waiting to move into a 737/a320 or what have you at normal mainline pay rates. Pilots would come out of the woodwork for an opportunity like that, and every class would be full. The first mainline carrier to do such a thing would not only have the pick of the litter, but would set the tone for the way the industry will look for the foreseeable future. I am not alone with a dog avatar! |
Originally Posted by DOGIII
(Post 1635868)
Why can't they both keep their cheap outsourced flying and give everyone seniority numbers. They would have plenty of applicants at the door that would gladly fly RJ's at low rates keeping the feed staffed and all these guys can bid to fly the larger aircrafts when their seniority can hold it...
How else would mainlines hold any pilots at these express units with the amount of movement that could be around the corner? Personally I don't like the idea of flow throughs. If every regional had flow agreements the people at the bottom would get stuck waiting decades to flow when the industry slows down. Look how long some of the people at Eagle have been waiting to get to AA. Not having flow through is one way junior pilots who are motivated and on top of their game can jump a bit in seniority without waiting for everyone ahead of them to retire. |
Originally Posted by rcfd13
(Post 1635891)
Quote:
Originally Posted by DOGIII Why can't they both keep their cheap outsourced flying and give everyone seniority numbers. They would have plenty of applicants at the door that would gladly fly RJ's at low rates keeping the feed staffed and all these guys can bid to fly the larger aircrafts when their seniority can hold it... How else would mainlines hold any pilots at these express units with the amount of movement that could be around the corner? They've done this in the past. Eagle pilots used to have direct flow to AA. Compass had direct flow to Delta. Majors have moved away from that model for one reason or another. They don't like it. Personally I don't like the idea of flow throughs. If every regional had flow agreements the people at the bottom would get stuck waiting decades to flow when the industry slows down. Look how long some of the people at Eagle have been waiting to get to AA. Not having flow through is one way junior pilots who are motivated and on top of their game can jump a bit in seniority without waiting for everyone ahead of them to retire. |
Originally Posted by DOGIII
(Post 1635892)
I am not talking about flows, I am talking about absorbing a company entirely. Seniority numbers handed out.
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My 2 cents is the majors need to worry about "re-fleeting" them
Selfs..(more 777's A330's ect..) Not spending capital on a bunch of E175's... That is why they wont "fold" them in.. |
Originally Posted by amcnd
(Post 1635921)
My 2 cents is the majors need to worry about "re-fleeting" them
Selfs..(more 777's A330's ect..) Not spending capital on a bunch of E175's... That is why they wont "fold" them in.. |
I would think that if they bought us (or already own us) and want to give us a seniority number I would think the major's pilot union would require us an ISL(staple) and then be paid what their contract says and allow the mainline pilots to bid to the large RJ if they want. Not sure though
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Originally Posted by tom14cat14
(Post 1635939)
I would think that if they bought us (or already own us) and want to give us a seniority number I would think the major's pilot union would require us an ISL(staple) and then be paid what their contract says and allow the mainline pilots to bid to the large RJ if they want. Not sure though
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Originally Posted by DOGIII
(Post 1635892)
I am not talking about flows, I am talking about absorbing a company entirely. Seniority numbers handed out.
There are quite a few people at most regionals who have no plans to leave the regionals and would pitch a fit over any kind of absorption that they wouldn't have the right to pass up. |
Originally Posted by rcfd13
(Post 1635951)
Senior captains at the regionals would fight that as hard as they possibly could. There would probably also be lawsuits involved. Can you imagine a bunch of 30 year RJ captains who live in base and fly nothing but high credit locals and CDOs being stapled to the bottom of a major list, going back to FO and being forced to commute to reserve in NYC?
There are quite a few people at most regionals who have no plans to leave the regionals and would pitch a fit over any kind of absorption that they wouldn't have the right to pass up. |
This is coming soon, by the end of the year. The big three need pilots for their brand. There is a need currently but in 3-4 years without a steady source of pilots these airlines will be in a world of hurt. The first airline to innovate and make a move will be way ahead of the game. We are all focused on the shorterm, this is not a short term move, it is a move to capture the required manpower over the next 5 years and bring in the next generation of pilots. The smart airlines looking into the future are already actively working on this and recruiting from the flight schools trying to secure pilots for their brand. Regionals will eventually be the entry job for the mainline brands. This will allow a select few regionals to properly staff and provide for a more defined career path which will allow for more financing options for potential pilot candidates.
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Originally Posted by rcfd13
(Post 1635951)
Quote:
Originally Posted by DOGIII I am not talking about flows, I am talking about absorbing a company entirely. Seniority numbers handed out. Senior captains at the regionals would fight that as hard as they possibly could. There would probably also be lawsuits involved. Can you imagine a bunch of 30 year RJ captains who live in base and fly nothing but high credit locals and CDOs being stapled to the bottom of a major list, going back to FO and being forced to commute to reserve in NYC? There are quite a few people at most regionals who have no plans to leave the regionals and would pitch a fit over any kind of absorption that they wouldn't have the right to pass up. I think people are stuck in a "flow" mentality here. The hypothetical proposition I am offering for debate in this thread is neither a flow nor a traditional staple to the bottom of a list- it is folding in the entire carrier (pilots, fleets, bases and lines etc.) to the major airlines ranks, generally keeping the operation intact. |
Originally Posted by Navmode
(Post 1635883)
What I believe will happen:
Some mainline carrier will find their most profitable contract carrier, buy them out, and staple everyone to the bottom of the seniority list. No more scope to worry about limiting seat capacity, and they would be able to take advantage of the cheaper regional flying at cost. It's basically a flow without the shenanigans and technical red tape. I can see many people at X carrier accepting a status quo contract renewal if they had a mainline seniority number, and were just waiting to move into a 737/a320 or what have you at normal mainline pay rates. Pilots would come out of the woodwork for an opportunity like that, and every class would be full. The first mainline carrier to do such a thing would not only have the pick of the litter, but would set the tone for the way the industry will look for the foreseeable future. |
Originally Posted by DOGIII
(Post 1635979)
Why would they be forced back to FO? They could choose to stay in status and base on the rj. I cannot imagine many senior pilots would bid down to the rj and force these captains to an FO position of any kind on a different bird and even if they did- there would be plenty of junior rj captains leaving to the right seat of the bigger planes which would practically level the bid.
I think people are stuck in a "flow" mentality here. The hypothetical proposition I am offering for debate in this thread is neither a flow nor a traditional staple to the bottom of a list- it is folding in the entire carrier (pilots, fleets, bases and lines etc.) to the major airlines ranks, generally keeping the operation intact. If a major wants to control all flying it would be cheaper and with dramatically fewer ancillary issues to simply stop renewing feed contracts and ad the flying to the mainline. There is no need for the night mare ever merger seems to become. |
Originally Posted by sailingfun
(Post 1635985)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Navmode What I believe will happen: Some mainline carrier will find their most profitable contract carrier, buy them out, and staple everyone to the bottom of the seniority list. No more scope to worry about limiting seat capacity, and they would be able to take advantage of the cheaper regional flying at cost. It's basically a flow without the shenanigans and technical red tape. I can see many people at X carrier accepting a status quo contract renewal if they had a mainline seniority number, and were just waiting to move into a 737/a320 or what have you at normal mainline pay rates. Pilots would come out of the woodwork for an opportunity like that, and every class would be full. The first mainline carrier to do such a thing would not only have the pick of the litter, but would set the tone for the way the industry will look for the foreseeable future. Past history shows the purchased carrier would not agree to a staple. Most managements are also unlikely to give up all control of the hiring process. |
1. The trend has been to spin off regional partners.
2. An independent publicly owned regional would have to agree to be bought out or be taken over under hostility. 3. A privately owned regional would have to see gold at the end of the rainbow to give up it's cash cow. 4. Unionized pilots would pitch a fit. Who knows what the other labour groups would say. 5. I really can't see upper mgmt at these regionals giving up their gigs. 6. Stranger things have happened.. |
Originally Posted by slammer1906
(Post 1636013)
1. The trend has been to spin off regional partners.
2. An independent publicly owned regional would have to agree to be bought out or be taken over under hostility. 3. A privately owned regional would have to see gold at the end of the rainbow to give up it's cash cow. 4. Unionized pilots would pitch a fit. Who knows what the other labour groups would say. 5. I really can't see upper mgmt at these regionals giving up their gigs. 6. Stranger things have happened.. There could be some backlash from the unions as you say , but let's think why... Would union pilots handed a seniority number, accruing seniority, longevity and mainline benefits complain? |
Originally Posted by DOGIII
(Post 1635868)
Why can't they both keep their cheap outsourced flying and give everyone seniority numbers. They would have plenty of applicants at the door that would gladly fly RJ's at low rates keeping the feed staffed and all these guys can bid to fly the larger aircrafts when their seniority can hold it...
How else would mainlines hold any pilots at these express units with the amount of movement that could be around the corner? |
Would unions complain? Maybe, maybe not. The pilot group would have to vote on the issue.
We're starting to see a trend of pilots flocking to regionals with descent work rules. If the wholly owned regional, which only four exist, have a sub standard contract, they'll have a hard time attracting quality pilots anyway. PSA just voted in a low quality contract. Endeavor has a low quality contract. Envoy will more than likely shrink. Piedmont is kinda a toss up at the moment. Those being the only wholly owned, it may be hard to sell to the savvy new hire. |
Originally Posted by rcfd13
(Post 1635951)
Senior captains at the regionals would fight that as hard as they possibly could. There would probably also be lawsuits involved. Can you imagine a bunch of 30 year RJ captains who live in base and fly nothing but high credit locals and CDOs being stapled to the bottom of a major list, going back to FO and being forced to commute to reserve in NYC?
There are quite a few people at most regionals who have no plans to leave the regionals and would pitch a fit over any kind of absorption that they wouldn't have the right to pass up. |
Originally Posted by Nantonaku
(Post 1635961)
This is coming soon, by the end of the year. The big three need pilots for their brand. There is a need currently but in 3-4 years without a steady source of pilots these airlines will be in a world of hurt. The first airline to innovate and make a move will be way ahead of the game. We are all focused on the shorterm, this is not a short term move, it is a move to capture the required manpower over the next 5 years and bring in the next generation of pilots. The smart airlines looking into the future are already actively working on this and recruiting from the flight schools trying to secure pilots for their brand. Regionals will eventually be the entry job for the mainline brands. This will allow a select few regionals to properly staff and provide for a more defined career path which will allow for more financing options for potential pilot candidates.
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Originally Posted by amcnd
(Post 1636025)
Doubt it UA was looking into a "flow" program until they realized they had 5000 apps on file.. The majors will never have a problem with so call "mythical" shortage...
The legacy carriers will never have a shortage of applicants. There will always be plenty of well connected regional pilots, and retiring military pilots to fill those spots. But if they do, they will simply go to ab-initio training like all the other major carriers of the world. Most current regional pilots need to start accepting that they will never get that coveted mainline job. |
Originally Posted by amcnd
(Post 1636025)
Doubt it UA was looking into a "flow" program until they realized they had 5000 apps on file.. The majors will never have a problem with so call "mythical" shortage... |
Originally Posted by Captain Tony
(Post 1636022)
Because the majority of mainline pilots think regional pilots are a bunch of misfits with DUIs, no degrees, checkride failures, and no service to their country. They feel regional pilots are not properly vetted, and if they want to be Mainline Pilots they need to go through the interview process and earn it. Like they did. I am sure there is some truth to this. Would the mainline groups be willing to overlook this and sacrifice their pride to the god of scope? They would essentially control all flying, a powerful negotiating position to be in... |
Originally Posted by DOGIII
(Post 1636030)
I agree that the majors will likely never face a real shortage, but their express feed will and they will have to find a way to defend it.
Rumor mill! I really believe Blue will get rid of most if not all their 190's. They've been slowly shrinking their commitment to that bird. |
Originally Posted by slammer1906
(Post 1636043)
Quote:
Don't be surprised to see more 190's, 900's on mainline property. Rumor mill! I really believe Blue will get rid of most if not all their 190's. They've been slowly shrinking their commitment to that bird. The fact that these guys would have seniority numbers would not change the lower cost of paying their current salaries.. |
Originally Posted by Captain Tony
(Post 1636022)
Because the majority of mainline pilots think regional pilots are a bunch of misfits with DUIs, no degrees, checkride failures, and no service to their country. They feel regional pilots are not properly vetted, and if they want to be Mainline Pilots they need to go through the interview process and earn it. Like they did.
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Originally Posted by toomanyrjs
(Post 1636059)
There is a huge amount of truth in this statement. Regionals simply do not have the same hiring standards as majors. They never have and they never will. Anyone with a freshly printed pilot certificate and a pulse automatically qualifies. The lifers at the top of such a list, are lifers for a reason. They may hide behind whatever statement to make themselves feel better, but they're still lifers at a regional. Why should someone's career failure be rewarded with a seat at a major? The continued shrinkage and eventual implosion of the regional industry is a good thing that will hopefully return flying back to mainline where it belongs. A side benefit is the purging of those who really have no business being in an airline cockpit. It's a harsh reality, but not everyone deserves a spot at a major.
It probably doesn't matter to you (because you'll just find another reason), but ASA has been using the Delta interview process since 2001. So did Comair (RIP). Compass has used it since inception, and Endeavor has used it for several years. |
The path of least resistance will be for the legacy airlines to reduce out-sourced flying.
...Not absorb (or acquire) the regional carriers. The remaining regionals will either go the way of Comair or become stand alone carriers. |
Originally Posted by amcnd
(Post 1636025)
Doubt it UA was looking into a "flow" program until they realized they had 5000 apps on file.. The majors will never have a problem with so call "mythical" shortage...
When regionals have to start handing out 50k bonuses and paying 100k to train someone the regional discount edge quickly disappears. If you offer prospective applicants a path to a career job through a regional then you can get applicants in the door fast and without fronting the training costs. This is the future and it is right around the corner. Mainline is already taking over the hiring process at some regionals, why do you think they would be doing that? |
Originally Posted by Captain Tony
(Post 1636061)
See, there you go. That's what I was referring to. I got mine, screw you. Quick, we're in, pull up the ladder.
It probably doesn't matter to you (because you'll just find another reason), but ASA has been using the Delta interview process since 2001. So did Comair (RIP). Compass has used it since inception, and Endeavor has used it for several years. |
If regional airlines can't fulfill their contracts due to staffing issues they will eventually shrink as mainline 717's and 319's pick up the slack. Management and mainline pilot groups don't want to even entertain the headache that an integration would entail. And yes, mainline airlines are very selective about who they hire and don't want to give up that control.
It will never happen. However, if you keep your nose clean and network, the majority of regional pilots will be employed by majors within the next 10 years -- they'll just have to accomplish this the traditional way (heaven forbid.) Except for the "page is shame'ers" who "Don't want to commute to NYC to sit reserve." (Yeah, that's what's holding you back.) |
Originally Posted by rcfd13
(Post 1635951)
Senior captains at the regionals would fight that as hard as they possibly could. There would probably also be lawsuits involved. Can you imagine a bunch of 30 year RJ captains who live in base and fly nothing but high credit locals and CDOs being stapled to the bottom of a major list, going back to FO and being forced to commute to reserve in NYC?
There are quite a few people at most regionals who have no plans to leave the regionals and would pitch a fit over any kind of absorption that they wouldn't have the right to pass up. |
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