Pilot Shortage (2015 Embry Riddle summit)
#451
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 219
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From: 145
With the first few, there were some big language -barrier issues, so the university got strict about what level of English they had to have to enroll in a flight course, so many of them were taking gen-eds on campus for 6 months or so before they started flying and that seemed to help some.
#452
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Joined: May 2009
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Using APC info, Airline Profile Categories | AirlinePilotCentral.com
The following airlines are arguably the "get hired there and never leave until retirement" companies
Company - Pilots employed
AAL (USAir + AA) - 15822
UAL - 11357
SWA - 3000
DAL - 12430
FDX - 4288
UPS - 2538
JBLU - 3000
HAL - 627
ALK - 1567
Total Pilots: 55,777
With that said, you stated that 101,000 pilot jobs require an ATP and First Class Medical. Well, we just observed that 55K are accounted for at the majors, all will have ATP's by the time of hire, so it is reasonable to conclude that every single one has an ATP.
What you are not considering is that roughly the SAME AMOUNT of TOTAL pilots EMPLOYED at the above carriers (55K) are left over (part of the "101,000" statement) as pilots elsewhere.
So it could be said that "45,000 potential airline pilot applicants exist"
Thats right: 45,000
if the majors REPLACED each pilot, one for one, with someone from the outside, if we are using statistics, we already have enough bodies.
Now, more realistically, FedEx hired (hold on, fasten you seat belts), 7 pilots this year. I wonder if they had a shortage ?
SWA is dropping a type requirement. OK, is this GOOD or BAD ? Kinda Bad, for the applicant. No, this is not "good" for the applicant. As now every swinging Tom Dick and Harry will apply, and your application is now further buried in the pile. GOOD for SWA, they can nickel and dime the applications more. BAD for you.
What about military pilots ? Are they counted in the data ? What about the non-ATP holder, but 1000 TT and 300 multi ? He expects to get his ATP in 24 months. Is this counted ?
Etc ?
No Pilot shortage at the majors.
Acme Night Freight Express hiring Baron captains ? maybe (nobody is fighting for those jobs anyway). FedEx ? Delta ? No shortage
GAO ? You trust the government ?
The following airlines are arguably the "get hired there and never leave until retirement" companies
Company - Pilots employed
AAL (USAir + AA) - 15822
UAL - 11357
SWA - 3000
DAL - 12430
FDX - 4288
UPS - 2538
JBLU - 3000
HAL - 627
ALK - 1567
Total Pilots: 55,777
With that said, you stated that 101,000 pilot jobs require an ATP and First Class Medical. Well, we just observed that 55K are accounted for at the majors, all will have ATP's by the time of hire, so it is reasonable to conclude that every single one has an ATP.
What you are not considering is that roughly the SAME AMOUNT of TOTAL pilots EMPLOYED at the above carriers (55K) are left over (part of the "101,000" statement) as pilots elsewhere.
So it could be said that "45,000 potential airline pilot applicants exist"
Thats right: 45,000
if the majors REPLACED each pilot, one for one, with someone from the outside, if we are using statistics, we already have enough bodies.
Now, more realistically, FedEx hired (hold on, fasten you seat belts), 7 pilots this year. I wonder if they had a shortage ?
SWA is dropping a type requirement. OK, is this GOOD or BAD ? Kinda Bad, for the applicant. No, this is not "good" for the applicant. As now every swinging Tom Dick and Harry will apply, and your application is now further buried in the pile. GOOD for SWA, they can nickel and dime the applications more. BAD for you.
What about military pilots ? Are they counted in the data ? What about the non-ATP holder, but 1000 TT and 300 multi ? He expects to get his ATP in 24 months. Is this counted ?
Etc ?
No Pilot shortage at the majors.
Acme Night Freight Express hiring Baron captains ? maybe (nobody is fighting for those jobs anyway). FedEx ? Delta ? No shortage
GAO ? You trust the government ?
Pretty sure Southwest has more than 3000 pilots.
#453
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Joined: Jul 2013
Posts: 12,533
Likes: 1,129
CBreezy, you aren't going to convince the pilots that you're right especially since you don't have an argument. You can talk to your other RAA management friends. They would probably be willing to listen to your rationalization.
You aren't getting the laws changed so you can keep hiring low time pilots. You're wasting your time trying to persuade real pilots in these forums.
Your best bet to handle your staffing problems is to create positions and pay that is commensurate with the many high time pilots that are in fact out there. If you did that we could all prove you wrong instantly. Go ahead and offer higher pay for higher time pilots and you'd suddenly see plenty of applicants. You can still pay lower time pilots entry level wages but do do this you'll have to relax seniority rules.
I understand that you must present these arguments because that's your job but you're preaching to the wrong crowd. Stop treating regional airline jobs as internships for the majors.
You aren't getting the laws changed so you can keep hiring low time pilots. You're wasting your time trying to persuade real pilots in these forums.
Your best bet to handle your staffing problems is to create positions and pay that is commensurate with the many high time pilots that are in fact out there. If you did that we could all prove you wrong instantly. Go ahead and offer higher pay for higher time pilots and you'd suddenly see plenty of applicants. You can still pay lower time pilots entry level wages but do do this you'll have to relax seniority rules.
I understand that you must present these arguments because that's your job but you're preaching to the wrong crowd. Stop treating regional airline jobs as internships for the majors.
Last edited by CBreezy; 03-16-2015 at 05:16 AM.
#454
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Joined: Jul 2013
Posts: 12,533
Likes: 1,129
I know many regional captains that wouldn't leave even if they offered a pay raise to their current pay. The pay, benefits, and seniority is too good to go back to sitting reserve even if it's a short period.
There are many corporate pilots who would NEVER leave for a major. They get weeks and holidays off and similar pay. There are many 91 pilots that fly only a few hundred hours a year. Why would they all of a sudden Want to fly almost 700-800 for a slight increase in pay.
Yes. Some would leave but to say all ATPs are major airline candidates oversimplifies the conversation. Also, major airline flying isn't the entire industry. It is composed of cargo, airlines, corporate, on-demand, charter, and private flying. If one of those sectors has a hard time attracting applicants, which I believe they will in the heat of major retirements, it is a shortage. Period.
#455
That's the problem with your argument.
I know many regional captains that wouldn't leave even if they offered a pay raise to their current pay. The pay, benefits, and seniority is too good to go back to sitting reserve even if it's a short period.
There are many corporate pilots who would NEVER leave for a major. They get weeks and holidays off and similar pay. There are many 91 pilots that fly only a few hundred hours a year. Why would they all of a sudden Want to fly almost 700-800 for a slight increase in pay.
Yes. Some would leave but to say all ATPs are major airline candidates oversimplifies the conversation. Also, major airline flying isn't the entire industry. It is composed of cargo, airlines, corporate, on-demand, charter, and private flying. If one of those sectors has a hard time attracting applicants, which I believe they will in the heat of major retirements, it is a shortage. Period.
I know many regional captains that wouldn't leave even if they offered a pay raise to their current pay. The pay, benefits, and seniority is too good to go back to sitting reserve even if it's a short period.
There are many corporate pilots who would NEVER leave for a major. They get weeks and holidays off and similar pay. There are many 91 pilots that fly only a few hundred hours a year. Why would they all of a sudden Want to fly almost 700-800 for a slight increase in pay.
Yes. Some would leave but to say all ATPs are major airline candidates oversimplifies the conversation. Also, major airline flying isn't the entire industry. It is composed of cargo, airlines, corporate, on-demand, charter, and private flying. If one of those sectors has a hard time attracting applicants, which I believe they will in the heat of major retirements, it is a shortage. Period.
#456
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Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 6,430
Likes: 124
From: Window seat
Watch guys on reserve or who bid FB/IO/IRO/IOR all the time, on average they make more errors than the guys who fly day in and day out and they already have thousands of hours of flying time.
#457
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Joined: Jul 2013
Posts: 12,533
Likes: 1,129
That's what happens on a message board. An opinion is stated, like in the "Pilot Shortage" thread. If anyone is arguing, it is you. Your opinion is opposite that of the thread of the title. If I went into the "There isn't a shortage" thread, I'd be arguing and you'd be defending the point. I'll go ahead and make a satpak point. "There will never be a shortage of major airline captains. Period." **Drops mic**
#458
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 265
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From: Captain - Retired
You could be one of the least intelligent people on this board. I've been vocal against places like Mesa, GoJet and Republic(all members of the RAA). I've been vocal against lowering mins and MPLs. But you and your 9/11 truther friends insist I'm employed by some shadow company.
I've seen you and your activities on this and other boards using this and other online persona.
You are a fake and if I was an admin on this board I could prove it.
People want to have an honest and serious discussion but your job is to disrupt that discussion. Your tactics involve a concerted effort of discrediting people by calling them childish names and diverting the conversation. You will flood boards with off topic remarks and attempt to derail a thread. If anyone gets angry you report them to a mod.
Your kind is not unique to these forums. You and your friends can be found anywhere large corporate interests may be threatened by free and open discussion. You are worse than a troll.
#459
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jul 2013
Posts: 12,533
Likes: 1,129
You're insulting, rude, incoherent, and are probably not a real pilot. Even if you were it doesn't mean you aren't on the payroll of the RAA and their agenda. The RAA isn't a shadow company and their activities aren't secret.
I've seen you and your activities on this and other boards using this and other online persona.
You are a fake and if I was an admin on this board I could prove it.
People want to have an honest and serious discussion but your job is to disrupt that discussion. Your tactics involve a concerted effort of discrediting people by calling them childish names and diverting the conversation. You will flood boards with off topic remarks and attempt to derail a thread. If anyone gets angry you report them to a mod.
Your kind is not unique to these forums. You and your friends can be found anywhere large corporate interests may be threatened by free and open discussion. You are worse than a troll.
I've seen you and your activities on this and other boards using this and other online persona.
You are a fake and if I was an admin on this board I could prove it.
People want to have an honest and serious discussion but your job is to disrupt that discussion. Your tactics involve a concerted effort of discrediting people by calling them childish names and diverting the conversation. You will flood boards with off topic remarks and attempt to derail a thread. If anyone gets angry you report them to a mod.
Your kind is not unique to these forums. You and your friends can be found anywhere large corporate interests may be threatened by free and open discussion. You are worse than a troll.
I find your insinuation that I'm on the payroll of an organization that my union strives to counteract to be insulting and a personal assault. I'm merely trying to have a discussion about facts and figures regarding what you perceive as not being a pilot shortage. This is the only board I post on and have ever posted on.
I'm sorry that you feel that having an opinion that differs from yours regarding the interpretation of what I consider to be an incomplete data sat is akin to being on the side of big business trying to defeat labor. I am VERY much on the side of labor. Just because I am in a union does not mean I'm not allowed to have an opinion outside of the main talking points of the union. It's just the same as when I was in the military and had an opinion that differed from the hard line conservative war lust that many people had.
#460
...There are many corporate pilots who would NEVER leave for a major. They get weeks and holidays off and similar pay. There are many 91 pilots that fly only a few hundred hours a year. Why would they all of a sudden Want to fly almost 700-800 for a slight increase in pay...Yes. Some would leave but to say all ATPs are major airline candidates oversimplifies the conversation. Also, major airline flying isn't the entire industry. It is composed of cargo, airlines, corporate, on-demand, charter, and private flying...
...If one of those sectors has a hard time attracting applicants, which I believe they will in the heat of major retirements, it is a shortage. Period.
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