Flow while attractive, is no guarantee. There are a lot of variables that can cause it to be metered, or stopped. AA will never park airplanes to allow pilots to flow, it's been said but I honestly never see it happening. They need their feed. As example, if new hires don't come in fast enough due to the famed pilot shortage, the flow will be slowed. If the economy crashes, and AA slows hiring the flow will be slowed or shutdown. The possibility of flow can be "golden handcuffs."
I for one, plan on leaving the comfortable confines of flow to better my resume. In short I don't think it will make or break you, I think in some ways it can cause complacently and slow you down.

 

What does your crystal ball say will happen in six months? Probably the same thing we keep hearing at Envoy, there will be good news coming soon. It will be this Monday, then in two weeks, and then another two weeks. It never ends.

 

They are pretty staggering, but both Delta and United are running some massive classes (or planning on it in the near future.) I just don't see how those two airlines can continue doing so at that rate, even with the projected retirement numbers.

American, on the other hand, has the largest retirement numbers coming up and have really only hired at a slow and steady pace. Aside from the rare few, the majority of new hires have been middle-aged flow thrus.

That being said, if I were new to the 121 world and wanted to go to a legacy (not LCC) then I would go to an airline with a flow.

 

Wrong! That's only for PSA and PDT. It doesn't apply to Envoy and (I think) Endeavor

 

The Big 3 Legacies are retiring 20,000 pilots in the next decade, a number which is larger than the current pool of regional pilots.

Short answer, get your stuff together and make applying to all of the above, plus LCCs, your new hobby.

 

****!!!!!!!

 

Honestly, I think going anywhere for a flow is stupid. Ask the Envoy guys who have been waiting around the better part of a decade to flow to AA. I know all the PSA, PDT, and Envoy guys on here like to make a show of it, but I don't take it into account much. My goal is to get out of the regionals. If Jet Blue or Spirit or Frontier offers me a job 2 or 3 years from now, I wouldn't stay at my regional airline hoping to flow. I'm getting out. We are all just one economic downturn or major domestic terrorism act away from being on the street anyway. The world economies have faltered in a big way and many have shrunk outright over the past quarter. More and more experts are predicting another recession. We are living in an increasingly hostile world, so I think war is inevitable. Just get in somewhere and cross your fingers. Who cares about flow. And I agree with the OP... If PDT had almost ANYTHING other than outstation basing I probably would of ended up there. But I don't want a 2-leg commute, so I didn't accept.

 

Umm...nothing in our agreement at PDT says we can't apply outside of the flow. Nice try though.

 

A wise man once told me. Go to airline and assume it will be your last one. Will you be happy with the result? There lies the answer

 

Delta will retire around 8000 pilots in the next 15 years. They already have over 8000 tier 1 applications on file. Sure, a lot of those guys have apps in at other carriers too, but flowing is not gonna be the only way to a legacy. I think the OP made the right decision, based on QOL and other factors.