Ric still projects 2.5/6
 

December 15, 2015
RE: Looking Ahead to 2016
For 2016, the momentum here at Envoy continues to build!
American Airlines projects that it will need 300 plus pilots from Envoy next year, with a
requirement of 90 pilots within the first 90 days. This flow-through, coupled with our recent
announcements of additional flying for American that will keep our total fleet count stable for
2016, means 200 plus Captain upgrade opportunities and 350 plus pilot new hires. With very
reasonable assumptions, a new hire today is currently projected to upgrade to Captain in two
and a half years – and flow to American approximately six years from hire.
Next year we add 28 new Embraer 175 aircraft to our fleet. These aircraft represent the first of
American’s fleet commitment to Envoy for 40 E175s, with options for up to 90 more. Further
solidifying our future with a fleet of fuel efficient aircraft with auto-throttles, coupled VNAV and
advanced avionics capabilities for Next Gen Airspace requirements.
Best regards,
Captain Ric Wilson
Vice President – Flight Operations

Well, sounds like the past claim to me and just as vague. "200 plus" captain upgrades sounds a lot like anywhere between 205 and the unsubstantiated 250, which was the previous claim. For his once again claim of a 2.5 year upgrade, that still means Envoy will have to upgrade the rest of their F/O's (600-700 ?) in the 18 months between 2017 and mid 2018, so his math remains as fuzzy and murky as ever.

Since he states AA will take "300 plus" senior Envoy 824's and there will be outside attrition can Envoy really get 30-35 pilots in class there each and every month throughout 2016 so as not to contract ?

I'd be impressed if they could.

His last paragraph was the best and what a real sales pitch to pilots ! The only thing he forgot to trumpet about the E-175 is the gleaming paint jobs. Sounds like he's just adding a quart of oil to this engine every few months in the hope it runs like he wants it to.

LMAO. I was hired at ASA in 2007. they said "you'll upgrade in 2 years, as soon as you get 2500 total and 1000 SIC :P


....8 years later..... still an FO

Some apparently think the timing of this latest blast of nothing really new is the hope it will distract the pilots there from what are apparently exceptionally bad schedules. Understandable effort considering pilots are easily distracted by things like this.

So his last email was like six months ago selling the same time frame, therefore it stands to reason that one of our June new hires should be deep into being a line holder by now and not sitting 6am airport standby every day because that is all they can hold. Is this true? Has our reserve time dropped that much recently? I'm asking because I might be doing something wrong with my bidding since I can only old reserve after 2.5 years.

What happens if they can't meet that requirement within 90 days?

Will they tamper the flow? Im betting they will park planes to fulfill the flow. At least thats what Pedro said last year.

Good Luck!

"some think"??

And who are your sources seeing as you don't work for Envoy?

Go ahead and tell everyone. You get whatever little nugget of information you have off of Eagle Lounge. The tragic aspect of that being that here at Envoy everyone knows and everyone agrees that Eagle Lounge is a joke of a website dominated by about 12 regular posters who account for 90%+ of all posts. And those 12 or so posters are by and large complainers, whiners, and can put a negative spin on anything. This isn't ground breaking information. The word "Eagle Lounge" is a punch line out on the line. People actually laugh about it.

Nobody at Envoy takes Eagle Lounge seriously and only a small percentage even lurk on that website let alone ever post. So it's frighteningly amusing you get all your "insider information" from that website. Of course you take what you can get when you don't work here , right eaglefly?

Fleet plan for 2016 shows that only 4 CRJs going to PSA next year, old news I guess.

He sent you guys a message from the future? That is pretty neat!

How dare you say anything that deviates from the party line. Truth be dam*ed. You'll upgrade in 2.5 and flow in 6. Are we clear?

4 CRJs will be transferred to PSA at the most, but reality it's only going to be 2.

TSA and Xjet 145s will be coming back to Envoy property but they haven't determined what month yet. August more than likely.

Pot meet kettle.

Where is Envoy1? Any ideas Cujo?


Good Luck!

Some pretty solid facts that you have there. You're better off saying I have no clue but im gonna make something up that sounds great. The reason it's only 4 crjs is due to PSA spending most of the year taking the new 900s. And id love to hear how you picked August as the month for the 145s to return.

Management said August. That's why.

I guess that makes it as good as done then.

The usual haters got to pop out and do their bashing.

Whatever. This is nothing new and ought to disappear off the bottom of the threads with nothing more that a "Whatever..." in the comments.

Put your money where your mouth is, management. Not much is going to make you look more idiotic that to keep pushing this projection and then fail to deliver.

Note: If you want a ride on Ric's Roller Coaster, apply today! At least there will be quick movement, and you never know, that ENY lottery ticket could really pay off. Getting on the ride in a couple years is going to be too late.

Ah, I never said that buddy. He asked where he got the month of August from for the return date. So I answered him.

Yes, he was quite upset and his spout blew a nice burst of steam there, yes ? It whistled clear across the forum turning heads in all directions. I've bumped into more then one Envoy pilot and they confirmed the schedules suck. Why put out such a meaningless message of emptiness that confirms no exact figures, only rehashes old ones right after the bomb dropped on bad schedules at least through February ?

Yes, it does indeed appear at least SOME think that. If I said everyone did, I'd say that, but I didn't. We both know one doesn't need to work for Envoy to hear things that SOME say, but yes EL is a good litmus of the pulse of Envoy, at least IMO when correlating what can be read there and what pilots say in person. It was easy to throw rocks at my opinions about Envoy, but what can you do when it is Envoy pilots themselves that say it ?

In this case, trying to kill one messenger isn't going to kill the message. He claims EVERYONE at Envoy knows and agrees that EL is what he says it is. What an absurd claim. Predictable, but absurd.

:rolleyes:

I'll say this much. Things might not be all roses right now but if you look at the numbers of pilots who have flowed and the projections which IMO will not stop we can see a lot of attrition here in the next 2 years. I had recurrent the other month and he sat down and spent about an hour plus answering any questions we had. He told us how AAG has determined the flow through and upgrade numbers and he himself said some of the data has assumptions such as X number of FO's/ month leaving for other airlines etc. I'm not necessarily defending the said times, just that this isn't something he just made up on the fly.
AAG is hanging their hat, as of now, on flow and it seems to me they are well aware what would happen to their WO if that ceases. With the amount of retirees AA is facing I have no doubts things will at least improve significantly in 2016. Don't forget if you look at the seniority lists we have huge gaps in DOH from 2001-2004, not a lot in 2005, 2009-20011. So while it seems like a joke with the 2.5 and 6, it COULD happen if the "assumptions" in AAG's calculations are correct. I personally don't think it will be as quick as they say but probably not too far off, especially with the flow.
A new hire here will have at least one benefit and that is at least a flow into AA and can still keep their apps up to date and get hired off the street with the other 2 majors eventually. As for other regional guys who want to go to AA they on the other hand are in a bad spot since the majority of new hires into AA will be primarily military and obviously a few select others.
For those of you who are not here, I would be cautious reading too much into everything negative here. Ya there's a lot that needs fixing, but I can't say this is a terrible place to work. I've personally enjoyed my time here and just as in life it's all about what you make of things.

Nice pitch. Really.

I agree one should be cautious about reading too much into anything negative, but I think one should apply that attitude to supposedly positive things too. Positive is good, provided it is indeed honest, accurate, doable and with no personal or ulterior motive. The "update" which was released had no new information from what I saw, simply reiterating old info and the old info of a 2.5 year upgrade claim once again stated requires a massive upgrade schedule in 2017 and the first half of 2018 to be realistic. It's difficult to see how Envoy can do that and I don't even see them promising to, at least specifically. The question of why it was put out now, especially with nothing really new to add understandably has some suspicious as to why considering the recent flying hours/scheduling communique and if there is suspicion as to that, then once could reasonably question its motive.

Perhaps an Envoy pilot could get this source to first confirm the 2017-2018 upgrade schedule plan to include all F/O's on property and then provide more detail as to how. Remember, if they plan to upgrade all remaining F/O's beyond the 200-and-change next year by mid 2018, they'll need as many new-hires during that period and that would be double what is claimed to be brought aboard next year.

The most important thing prospective entry-level pilots need from ANY airline source is accuracy and honesty. Right now, across this segment of the industry, that appears difficult to find as due to the deepening regional airline pilot crisis, it seems that any claim goes, no matter how questionable or unlikely.

Why? Because he is happy with his employer? Not everyone lives such a miserable existence as yourself. I suppose that is why you keep coming back to badmouth a company you don't work for anymore. Oh, right, public service.

Do you think that Ric Wilson thinks about you as much as you think about him? I doubt it. But maybe that is the real reason why you are always hanging out on threads about a company you don't work for anymore. To feel significant.

No, because it really was a nice pitch. I actually liked it. He gave his .02 worth and that was fine, at least by me. I simply expanded that all pilots should consider all statements and claims or perhaps even NONE of them and go strictly to the best source - Envoy pilots themselves. In my experience in doing just that, the vibe I get is more negative then positive. The vibe I get at least is that pilots are untrustworthy and suspicious of their management and that is expressed both personally and on various pilot forums. I suppose it irks you that anyone else would give any view that isn't in accordance with your views, but some like me believe that others should consider all points of view, instead of one-sided myopic ones by those with questionable motives, like yourself.

What you see as "badmouthing" is simply another opinion of what is being said and regarding the latest blast, it was that A. nothing is new, B. the same claims like the 2.5 year upgrade that aren't new are STILL based on unrealistic numbers and C. the timing seems questionable because of the A. repetition of previous information and B. the penchant for this source to make claims that seem unrealistic and that as a result of that, some Envoy pilots don't believe what he says and/or believe their was another motive to repeat the already heard that hasn't changed. I certainly don't. It seems to greatly upset you little pot, that anyone would dare question anything you or this source says.


God, I hope he doesn't. Honestly though, I couldn't care less as that isn't a question for me. No, the bigger question for me is, why do YOU feel such a obsessive compulsion to come on these threads almost daily and for large parts of days to do the opposite, i.e., to sell the dubious claims of others or in absence of that, make dubious claims yourself in regards to Envoy's future ? Another question for me is why you feel an even bigger sleepless obsession to aggressively attack everything I say and even others on multiple threads regarding any differing views of Envoy's future based on questionable claims that have once again been repeated ?

One would almost think YOU to be Ric Wilson. Who knows, considering all possibilities, maybe he DOES think about me MORE then I think about him ?

Does he ? :rolleyes:

Personal opinion rant: I don't think Ric reiterated the 2.5/6 to distract from the news schedules aren't improving. They couldn't care less about current employee morale, as evidenced by the reserve debacle that is ongoing and totally preventable. I'm sure this email was intended to boost recruiting, as 350 new hires is a lofty target in this environment.

I'm glad they keep pushing 2.5/6, personally. After hearing years and years of bad news about shrinking and losing flying, this type of optimism, even from management, is better than the alternative of losing more airplanes. It was about this time last year that more 145 transfers were announced. Now, the 175 is arriving, the CRJ's will hang around, and the 145's are supposedly coming back. If you step back and realizes who is doing the talking, and understand that those projections should be taken with a grain of salt, there's no harm in looking at the bright side.

With regards to the projections, I think the 2.5 claim is off the mark. The six year flow seems very reasonable at this point. Six years is an eternity, and a lot could change, good or bad, in that time frame. The next 2.5 years could be really good here, but good enough to move that many pilots up the list? I doubt it. I think a 4 year upgrade is a solid conservative estimate.

Either way, for me personally, I'm going to keep the flow in my back pocket and apply off the street and see where I end up. There's going to be an unprecedented amount of retirements/hiring over the next decade. I'd say no matter where you are sitting, it's going to be a good ride.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Classes
 

Does anyone know what the current class sizes and dates are?

The problem is that AAG is utterly untrustworthy; they have proven that time and time again. I used to work there, I know what I'm talking about and I can't imagine much has changed in the time since I have left.

I wish all who are there the very best, but I would take what they say with a grain of salt.

AAG is only about 2 years old. This is not AMR. They have actually been holding up their end of the bargain, at least with wholly owns, up to this point.

Your post is irrelevant due to the fact that you are essentially talking about 2 different companies.

Classes run twice a month (end of Dec is an exception) We had 13 start a few days ago. We have 25 scheduled for the 1st January class with another ~22 that are at various stages in the process. It's likely that the 2nd January class will be of similar size.

No, I'm not Ric. My name is Gavin MacKenzie. I am socially awkward and having trouble making friends in real life. My entire life revolves around making stupid political commentary on FB that no one cares about and posting aviation industry forums. I have trouble coming to terms with my personal and professional insignificance so I constantly attempt to create conflict to feed my delusion of self importance. :eek:

Sounds like the best plan for you. You're invested in Envoy and that makes a difference. The more investment, the less likelihood of altering your present course. Now say if Jet Blue, Spirit or Frontier calls or even offers a class date, then things get a bit more complicated. If Delta or United calls, that's a no-brainer IMO. From my POV, the 2.5 claim is clearly stretching it and if that's being clearly stretched, what else should one believe ? As for the 6 year flow, IMO, it's not that that is unrealistic, it's just too far out to attach any confidence in, especially considering past history and future volatility. Way too far out. Combine the two, add the monthly repetition of such and the questions surrounding the source and as a package, I consider it what should be of minimal consideration for someone weighing their options in considering a regional carrier as a street hire and especially someone thinking of jumping present ship. Better to place more weight in more tangible components then that if you're making your first move and a lateral one. Those considerations will vary with the pilot though.

The next decade should indeed offer more for movement from regionals to LCC and legacies then in the past and that is good. However, the legacies especially can still be very choosy and seniority in the name of the game. Many present regional pilots will spend far longer in the regionals then they expect simply because the LCC's and legacies can pick and choose as their still is a good supply of regional and non-regional pilots to choose from. Some will never make the jump for any number of reasons. Luck is still a major component.

This is the most reasonable post I have seen you make. If more of your comments were like this, I would be more inclined to believe that you not on an envoy vendetta. I give this same advise to guys a fly with. I would welcome more eaglefly perspective like this.

This is the most common vibe I get from present Envoy pilots both from the forums and in-person. Of course, several management teams have come and gone there and that vibe has been in place for decades from my perception, so nothing is new. It sure seems from the outside that the same old scene is repeating itself ad nauseum there. The only difference IMO, is a band of angry leftovers from a past corrupt union fiefdom who were pushed aside and have taken it upon themselves to continue the influence of their philosophy from the sidelines, while periodically engineering various coups to regain their throne.

LOL !

He is still around ? I thought he faded into the sunset when his defamation suit flopped and he disappeared from EL. At any rate, I don't think you've picked a very good pseudo identity if credibility is your goal, at least in my opinion, but it sounds as though you are as obsessed with him as you are with me though. :cool:

Perhaps it isn't us that is the foundation that drives your delusions and obsessions but something inside yourself ?

It has always been my perspective, it's just you see what you choose to see and frequently twist yourself into a pretzel in the process. Look at some past posts and you'll see validation of some positive Envoy posts and affirmation I don't think anyone shouldn't go to Envoy. It's just I don't think they should make decisions based on dubious claims involving fuzzy math or unpredictable timelines.

Annnd, he's back. This is a classic symptom of narcissism. You are a constant from which the world revolves around.

Have a good morning. Please though, do yourself a favor. Go out today, a coffee shop, a library, interact with real people. Be nice, respect their views and opinions. Try to make them feel better about themselves for having talked with you. You owe it to yourself to do this.

....and he's back, clinging to hyper-sensitive delusion aggravating his obsession. Actually, he never left. :cool:

I consider myself a variable that simply reflects that which I encounter. You'll be pleased to note both the Gym and Starbucks are on my list today and I will respect the views and opinions of those I encounter unless they demonstrate misguided delusion or obsession toward me or (as you are prone to do on this forum with myself and others), hurl insults and generally disrespect others whose views they disagree with.

Me thinks your own narcissistic traits are resulting in you shifting your psychological situation outward so as to deny the requirement to examine yourself. Try and have a less stressful day, OK ? I feel as though you are on the precipice of a complete and total crack-up.

Time and time again? Can you cite some specific examples?

You are making the old-and tired-mistake of getting AMR and AAG confused. AMR was completely and utterly untrustworthy. Yes, that is absolutely correct.

AAG is a completely different company, with different philosophies, different strategies, all driven by a completely different management group. Everyone from AMR with any kind of decision making power is gone including but not limited to Dan Garton who scurried over to Republic.

Fact of the matter is that AAG has kept their promises. You used to work here, as you say, so have been out of the loop. This isn't AMR anymore.

Wow. Sounds like you would fight to the death for AAG management. These are the same jokers that brought you that POS contract you fly under AFTER you had already signed a bankruptcy agreement with AMR. Not sure if you realize that. I know it's hard to see the big picture when you have Stockholm Syndrome.

You seem to spend a lot of time on eagle threads for a spirit guy. Don't you guys have your own issues to worry about?