Hmm, not sure. However the TAF's and METARS seem to match up pretty well with the Radar at the ETA. The actual flight path also seems to be threading the needle around cells.

If that radar was depicted at time of departure, certainly an alternate shouldn't have been in question, and the original TAF should have reflected such wx. It appears the KXNA TAF was amended right around the time ENY 3263 diverted to FSM.

 

That can't be, otherwise they definitely would have been given an alternate. In my experience, it only lags by a couple of minutes. It appears that the dispatcher forgot that weather moves, what's clear before may have TS 30 min later.

 

The length of the flight might matter. I've got a picture that shows my flight holding in clear skies and the holding patterns keep moving east into clearer and clearer skies. We kept moving east because the weather forced us east. But on flightaware we're holding in clear skies. And then it shows us departing the holding pattern and flying through two of the worst areas. The flight path doesn't make sense unless you shift it over the weather to the west.

 

Bottom line, they made it on the ground safe. The other day we had pressure from dispatch to go without alternate and 17 minutes of contingency fuel only (no hold) on a 1,600 mile flight. TAFs were okay, but popup storms off the mountains had us concerned. We elected to hold our ground and to boot one dozen passengers off for a total of 19K in fuel. It's a tough call being a captain when dispatch says you're good, release the brake! Sure as hell, we departed and half way there the airport shuts down and we incur delays due to storms. TAFS said clear and a million when we left. When we arrived it was pouring with LLWS and microburst alerts. Lets just say it was the longest blocked flight I've ever had in an RJ. If there's any question, take fuel.

 

At my company when you Call on the sat phone and ask about the weather ahead or that you want to divert, the first response from the dispatcher is, "what weather???" I kid you not..

 

1600 NM! What route? My block record was 5:05, flight time record 4:20. Both in CRJ700

 

The only time you have to much fuel, is when you are on fire...
I allways add half an hour of fuel, no matter what. "Captain's add"...
When I'm asked why, I say "I like the smell"...

 

"Dispatch needs to learn from it also as he/she is more to blame than the pilots."

Blame is equal under 121.533(b).

 

As a fairly new captain, this storm season has a been a learning a experience. I'll certainly admit that I don't think I would have thought to ask dispatch for an alternate just for VCTS. I've seen that a few times, and it ended up being okay. What's been the learning part has been that I check the radar, check the TAF, and all is clear. Then an hour later, there's huge popups along our route and we've been dispatched without any contingency fuel. Great! I think I will be checking the prog charts more often now, but on a 5 leg day with quick turns, it's hard to have. Then I get blamed for leaving two minutes late when I asked for just a little more fuel. (not that I care)

 

Something else to consider, once all safety and legal implications are thought through, is to play the company's game. Everyone knows how much direct pressure dispatch is under for fuel conservation because of how close they are to management on a daily basis. The only way to consistently get more gas is to force the company to do it by accepting diverts with their planned fuel. Yes, for some, that's contrary to our goal of getting the pax to their destination with as minimal frustration as possible. However, if companies would rather skimp on fuel, then there's nothing wrong with playing a long and making your point by following their rules and requests. Diversions are far more costly than carrying more fuel. Make it cheaper to carry the extra fuel.

Again, I'm not advocating shorting yourself on safety or legality. If dispatch plans you legal at the time of the release but your gut says you may need more fuel, you can still accept the release as-is and then do what you need to airborne all the while making my points as stated above.