So I was sipping some kool aid and reading some posts, and the recurring theme that I am getting is that everyone is going to eventually be at a major. I personally believe that most of this is wishful thinking, and here is why.
The average age of the regional FO is getting much younger. The majors are for the most part not growing. So in reality how much of a chance does a mid 20's new pilot coming up within the next few years actually have in making it a major? Upgrade times at some airlines (regionals) is two years, but there is no possible way that can continue. Anyone else want to chime in on this..I have more info but just dont feel like typing it out.

 

There is massive growth projected for the global airline industry through 2025 (and probably beyond). Most of this will occur overseas (esp. in Asia), but a fair amount will occur here, and a certain percentage of US pilots will head across the pond for adventure, better compensation, or both.

There really are a lot of pilots set to retire from a number of majors...I think AA is probably the youngest of them all at this point. Even age 65 will only delay the inevitable.

Also I think the mainline boyz and alpa are FINALLY starting to get a ******** clue about the regional phenomenon's effect on this industry...I'm really hoping that going forward they are going to lock up scope tighter than a gnats @ss.

So I think there will be some opportunity, but I also think many will get stuck at the regionals, voluntarily or otherwise.

 

Completely anecdotal, non-scientific evidence, but something I keep thinking about...

Ten years ago...

Cell phones were just beginning to catch on (bag phones, anyone?).
The internet was also just beginning to catch on.
Economy was booming.

Now, the economy is coming back, and technology such as cell phones, the internet, and countless other things have "sped up" our lives quite a lot. Do you think this "speeding up" is going to stop? I think not. As a result, provided a teleport system of some sort isn't thought up, people will fly more. They'll have to. If so, there will be growth. This is my hope and my belief. Hopefully I am right.

 

you obviously haven't seen to many delta, nwa, or united guys. they look like they are already over 65!!

 

The main issue is that many routes that used to be mainline are now regional routes. The majors really don't want anything to do with the domestic system, they just want their international routes. They have found regionals can get it done for a much lower cost. Yes, the major pilot groups gave in on scope. Every person that takes a regional job flying a jet, especially one more than 50 seats is eliminating their future job at a major. I don't say this to be negative or trash regional pilots, but it is just the fact about the industry.

 

If this is true, and ultimately the majors will get out of the domestic arena, then this is just one more reason we need to push for increase in the pay for regional pilots.

 

In the near future the line between the regionals and majors will thin to the point where there really will be no benefit to going to one other than the chance to fly a bigger plane.

Even now it would take a regional captain many years to get back to where they are in regards to pay and schedules. Soon the regionals, legacy and LCC's will be nearly on par with one another.

A pilot could earn 50K as an RJ captain or 50K as a 737 FO for a legacy. The deciding point will be bases, perceived future prospects and advancement.

SKyHigh

 

I couldn't agree with you more.

 

The system already has too many seats in the US. In any case the future is dependent upon the expectations of the next generation of pilots. Back when I first started on this forum I mostly defended myself from arrogant self centered and overpaid major airline captains. Those guys, for the most part, have blown away in the face of the obvious.

Now I mostly spar with 20 somethings who think that 50K is a lot of money. So long as pilots come to the table prepared to earn postman wages the future will be that of continuing losses in pay and working conditions. Pilots are not rare or difficult to come by anymore. Glass cockpits don't require a Chuck Yeager to fly them. The only thing left to prevent pilot wages from descending into the realm of minimum wage is the pilot groups resolve to not show up to work for ski instructor pay. However they seem to keep on coming with new even lower expectations.

I am beginning to miss the old arrogant "I am worth 300K a year" fat captain types.

Skyhigh

 

Most regional RJ CA will make about 60K-65K their first year as CA (Yr 2-3 pay) while toping out around 80K-100K. At the majors you will make 30-60K and as an FO toping out around 100K-140K (as FO). Which is a lot more than a regional CA will ever make AND you're pay schedule will almost coincide with your previous regional pay, that is until you exceed it around Yr 4-7 at the majors. Once you upgrade to CA at the majors you’ll make 130K-240K and I don't ever see any regional paying that to fly RJs. Why go to the majors? Mainly pay and equipment. Don't go there for QOL because it will take you far longer to gain it.