having been on USAF Class A mishap boards that routinely delivered reports in 30 days, questioning a report taking as long as this one which had:
1. No fatalities/plenty of witnesses to what occurred.
2. Cockpit voice recorder and flight data recorder easily recoverable/recovered.
3. ADSB flight path data pretty much instantly retrievable.
4. ATC communications with incident aircraft pretty much instantly retrievable.
5. A mostly intact aircraft just sitting there.
6. An entirely intact ILS.

does not strike me as particularly unreasonable.

Now the purpose of a mishap safety investigation is really not to punish the guilty, it's to prevent future mishaps, and to do that the lessons learned ought to be promulgated widely and PROMPTLY to those at potential risk.

Whether it was resource shortfalls or just a bureaucratic lack of urgency, considering the potential for disaster this represented it is not unreasonable to have expected them to get this finished and the relevant info widely distributed much sooner.

 

I agree about the conspiracies. For me the interesting piece was the confluence of subtle, boring human factors. We crash under the weight of mundane bits that pile up. It's the boring stuff that makes this interesting.

 

This was not a USAF mishap.

The NTSB does not routinely take 30 days. In fact, I don't believe the NTSB has ever taken just 30 days. What you did in the USAF is irrelvant.

There's no conspiracy here. No secret government coverup. Information has been released. The details are known. The players and participants are known.

The NTSB has not made any attempt to hide, conceal, or downplay the event, nor is there any rason why they would, or should, or any indication that the NTSB has done so.

Even the effect this event has had on the career progression of the pilot in command is known, to certain here, and thus, no speculation (or conspiracy theories) are required.

 

To me that's not an excuse, it's an indictment.

What do YOU believe would be an appropriate time to accomplish a safety mishap investigation for a mishap involving a hull loss but no fatalities that could have easily have had multiple fatalities where all evidence and testimony is easily retrievable? How slow is too slow? In your opinion.

 

My opinion is irrelevant, as is yours, and your thirty day mishap review board.

Yours is not an indictment, but an opinion, which has no impact.

Always a delight to hear it, though. In the military, we did this. Everyone should do that. In California, we did that, the rest of the world should follow suit. Why can't everyon be like me? Why can't the world conform to my opinion?

Perhaps you should chair the NTSB. Then your opinion will have an impact.

Mine won't change a damn thing.

Neither will conspiracy theories.

 

Speaking of delights….

 

Just dodging the question. Surely you HAVE an opinion. Otherwise you wouldn't post.

So how timely should NTSB reports be? Or should we not have them at all. It is OUR government paid for with OUR tax dollars. That entitles you to an opinion at least.

 

Clearly, he knows more than you and me and everyone else. Just sit back and smile knowing you’ll never attain such full-on blowhard status. The dude is a picture-postcard of “bid avoidance”.

 

This one seems like it took too long, given that facts.

Possible reasons?

Challenging technical analysis of snow and LOC antennas? Apparently more snow was previously allowed on LOC vs GS (different frequency, different signal propagation characteristics). Maybe they had to analyze the effects of various snow conditions, such as snow partially melting and refreezing into ice? Snow vs. water vs. ice could have different effects on the signal. Maybe FAA had to outsource that analysis?

On the machiavellian side, maybe they were politically afraid to come out and say we need to OOS every ILS in snow country when it's cold out until we figure this out? Bureaucratic vapor lock?

 

I am entitled to an opinion. I do not speculate and I do not guess. My opinion won't change the speed of the world one iota.

I didn't dodge a damn thing. I'm not going to give you an opinion on the matter. No need, given the information that I already provided, including links.

Do I have an opinion on this matter? I do not. You say I wouldn't post, without an opinion? Bull ****.

You speculate and chase conspiracies. I stick to facts, and back them up.

Shoulda, woulda, coulda. You can read. Read the docket that's been linked. It's all there.