Asiana 777 Crash at SFO
#182
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2012
Posts: 264
He apparently spoke to his crew or he surely wouldn't be saying that.
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Now for my speculation:
I hate to say it but I think all of us who have flown these long hauls and struggle to get one or two landings a month can make a real good guess what might have happened here.
Gorgeous day. Cleared for the visual. (Maybe while still on the downwind) No ILS for backup. No VASI. Didn't program, or didn't follow, a VNAV glide path. As a result, the flight directors aren't very helpful or maybe even giving him guidance that made things worse. Pilot who rarely, if ever, hand flies the jet for anything other than the last 1000 feet of a very stable straight-in on an ILS.
After a 10 or 12 hour flight the mind just didn't make the transition fast enough from "automated" mode to "stick and rudder" mode. Instrument scan while hand flying just too rusty. Deceptive visual cues coming in over water making it very hard to tell he was critically low. The jet just got away from him. When he realized he was in trouble he pulled the nose up and added power but it was too late. Tailstrike on the seawall.
------------------
Now for my speculation:
I hate to say it but I think all of us who have flown these long hauls and struggle to get one or two landings a month can make a real good guess what might have happened here.
Gorgeous day. Cleared for the visual. (Maybe while still on the downwind) No ILS for backup. No VASI. Didn't program, or didn't follow, a VNAV glide path. As a result, the flight directors aren't very helpful or maybe even giving him guidance that made things worse. Pilot who rarely, if ever, hand flies the jet for anything other than the last 1000 feet of a very stable straight-in on an ILS.
After a 10 or 12 hour flight the mind just didn't make the transition fast enough from "automated" mode to "stick and rudder" mode. Instrument scan while hand flying just too rusty. Deceptive visual cues coming in over water making it very hard to tell he was critically low. The jet just got away from him. When he realized he was in trouble he pulled the nose up and added power but it was too late. Tailstrike on the seawall.
"If the E/D waypoint altitude is below the DA/MDA, flight director guidance will be provided below the DA/MDA; however, the descent path may not be coincident with the VASI/PAPI. Below minimums, the pilot should always use visual references to ensure obstacle clearance."
Relying solely on FD commands with VNAV could lead to exactly this type of situation.
#183
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Position: B777
Posts: 121
don't make me go in the manuals!!
#184
Runs with scissors
Joined APC: Dec 2009
Position: Going to hell in a bucket, but enjoying the ride .
Posts: 7,728
What he said!!!! Great post!!!
Are there any 777 drivers here who can tell us about the auto thrust system on that aircraft? On a visual, would there be a use for an open descent mode with thrust idle, which would require a glide slope intercept (or altitude intercept, or V/S mode) to go to speed on thrust mode?
Are there any 777 drivers here who can tell us about the auto thrust system on that aircraft? On a visual, would there be a use for an open descent mode with thrust idle, which would require a glide slope intercept (or altitude intercept, or V/S mode) to go to speed on thrust mode?
The 777 auto-throttles work just like the 75/76, that is, they chase speed only, either the speed you have put in the FMS on the legs page if you are in VNAV, or the speed you set in the speed window, if you are coupled to a Glide slope, or in FLCH, or Vert speed.
Now, they are supposed to 'wake up' if you have clicked the auto-throttles off, and you have gone below your set speed, towards stall, you can still get stick shaker, but the throttles should come alive and hold the airspeed just above stick shaker. If you have instead, turned off both A/T switches, (one for L, one for R) then you are 'on your own', so to speak. But who says they stalled, or even got stick shaker? If the tail hadn't hit the rocks, they might have made a go-around out of it.
If there were no engine issues, or flight control issues, or other distractions from the cabin, my guess is they both went heads down trying to load 28L in the box, so they would have a VNAV path to use as a glide slope, and maybe when they started loading the FMS, they'd had the boards up, threw the gear out, etc. trying to get down, but forgot to stow the boards and throw the flaps and get stabilized. I've seen this happen many times on every airplane with an FMS. That's why we now train for ONE pilot only, to load the box in the approach arena, usually the pilot NOT FLYING. But I don't know what they train in Asia, as far as who does what, and when.
They other guy should be looking out the window (on a visual) and flying the jet. Obviously they lost SA if there were no other distractions from the back or from the airplane systems they might have both been looking at, vs. looking out the window and flying the jet manually, but as CE said above, you get tired, you do stupid things or get distracted more easily. Maybe they had it on autopilot, in Vertical Speed -1000, and never got caught up until it was obvious they were short.
I'm glad most made it out alive, sad to hear about the two 16yr. old girls. Once the NTSB gets to see what's on the FDR and CVR we'll know what really happened. Until then, it's all guess work. Only 2 guys know what really happened, and they aren't talking...yet.
#185
New Hire
Joined APC: Aug 2009
Posts: 6
Sadly this incident resulted in loss of life. It's cause as well as how and if it could have been prevented will be sorted out by no less than a ton of entities with an equal amount of initials in their names.
Reflect on the following: Luck or not, it seems like this could have been quite a bit worse. Unless, I am mistaken, I understand that there was a United Airlines 747-400 holding short of the runway. Many have said they could offer the NTSB excellent vantage points as to what occurred as they had a front row seat. Looking at the picture below and understanding that United 885 was fueled for a flight to Osaka (About 10:30 @ FL320 plus reserves) it could just have very quickly turned into a horror movie for the two (or three, or four) ladies and gentlemen at the pointy end of it had flight 214 been 200 feet to the left of the initial point of impact. It seems that this would have changed all the numbers of casualties drastically.
Reflect on the following: Luck or not, it seems like this could have been quite a bit worse. Unless, I am mistaken, I understand that there was a United Airlines 747-400 holding short of the runway. Many have said they could offer the NTSB excellent vantage points as to what occurred as they had a front row seat. Looking at the picture below and understanding that United 885 was fueled for a flight to Osaka (About 10:30 @ FL320 plus reserves) it could just have very quickly turned into a horror movie for the two (or three, or four) ladies and gentlemen at the pointy end of it had flight 214 been 200 feet to the left of the initial point of impact. It seems that this would have changed all the numbers of casualties drastically.
#186
it could just have very quickly turned into a horror movie for the two (or three, or four) ladies and gentlemen at the pointy end of it had flight 214 been 200 feet to the left of the initial point of impact. It seems that this would have changed all the numbers of casualties drastically.
#187
"Looking at the picture below and understanding that United 885 was fueled for a flight to Osaka (About 10:30 @ FL320 plus reserves) it could just have very quickly turned into a horror movie for the two (or three, or four) ladies and gentlemen at the pointy end of it had flight 214 been 200 feet to the left of the initial point of impact. It seems that this would have changed all the numbers of casualties."
From other videos and still pics I've seen, UA was still on the parallel taxiway and had not made it to the hold short line yet. They probably saw the initial impact, but doubtful much of the final slide and evacuation. Asiana would have had to have been much more than 200' left of center to cause a disaster on this one, however if UA had been there, you are spot on.
From other videos and still pics I've seen, UA was still on the parallel taxiway and had not made it to the hold short line yet. They probably saw the initial impact, but doubtful much of the final slide and evacuation. Asiana would have had to have been much more than 200' left of center to cause a disaster on this one, however if UA had been there, you are spot on.
#188
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2008
Posts: 854
#189
#190
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