I don’t believe they are going to cut the flow to 15 pilots a month, they are gonna need to turn the faucet up to fill those spots but your point is a good one coming from the fact that this was a result of grievance. With that being said however, nobody really knows but the majority of people believe that AA will turn up the amount of people who need to be flowed due to demand. Previous years, not so much


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Not you specifically lol just a lot of other people on this forum are. Granted they have reason to be.

You're in for a rude awakening. If you believe that AA will have problems hiring without more flow, you're smoking something you shouldn't be.

Quick calculation. Next group after the Protected Pilots are contractually set at 15 pilots per month.

2500 pilots / (15 flow per month x 11 months per year) = 15 years for flow, assuming no attrition.

In a few years hiring from the regionals will be 4,000 per year (conservative number). That is 20,000 pilots all regionals combined / 4,000 pilots per year hired by the majors = 5 years average at regionals to get hired by the majors.

How effective a recruiting tool is 15 years for flow (assuming no attrition) when the average for all regionals is 5 years?

Something will have to change for flow to be even slightly meaningful.

Lol. A lot of dreamers around here and it tends to be the new guys on a 9 year flow plan. Guys forget that this is still a business. They put a dollar value on the flow. Why in the world would the company just up the flow without anything in return? Simply because AA is hiring more guys? They have over 17,000 applications on file last I checked. They would have no problem taking in more guys off the street. AA doesn’t need flow throughs to survive.

It’s not 15/month for everyone.

I'd argue that flow is already meaningless for a new hire... and yet they are filling classes based on flow. Not every pilot is doing the math you are. Envoy is not going to increase flow unless it becomes necessary.

A few years ago it was 10,000 QUALIFIED applications. Then, after hiring kicked up (remember most of the 10,000 have applications in at the other majors, it is one big pool.), it was reported by HR to be 7,000.

Then I heard 13,000. Then I heard 5,000. Then I heard 17,000. Then I heard 3,000. Then, 25,000.

Put some reality in it. There are 20,000 pilots with the regionals. So, about 10,000 are captains. The often quoted number is 10% of the pilots, or 2,000 are lifers. That means 8,000 captains likely have applications out. While many first officers do as well, many are not yet qualified (especially hours).

So, what was reported by AA HR of 7,000 is a believable number. A number such as a big increase to 17,000 strains at my believability.

I understand the next group after the Protected Pilots is contractually 15/month. You mean that contractual number is not for everyone in that group? Or are you talking about the subsequent group?

Subsequent groups.

You make it sound like it’s 15/month going forward into eternity after the protected pilots finish. That is not correct.