Get out now.

Once you hit year 1, drop 5 years of Mil leave to escape the Reserve and relatively lower pay of years 1-3.

Your friend is where I was a few years back. I just retired at 20 as an O4. I had the option to get out in 2007. I decided to stay in, and it was right before the market/housing crash.

Now, though? Good Lord, bail. The military is being held together by spit and masking tape. It's only getting worse and more top heavy.

I'll put this here for your viewing pleasure:

https://www.rand.org/search.html?query=Air+Force+pilot

One of the studies talks about this very thing.

I think this is what you're looking for:

What Will a Year Cost Me? | AviationBull

Comparing a Military Retirement to Starting Early at an Airline | AviationBull

While he attempts a very detailed examination of career earnings, the situation is much more complex as there are so many variables and paths to consider.

One thing he does not consider is a Retired Reserve retirement or an Actuve Duty retirement attained while in the Guard/Reserves. I know three people in my small reserve unit who recently received an active duty retirement while gaining seniority at the airline. Yuge!

More so, he automatically assumes a Guard/Reserve retirement starts at 60 years of age. On paper yes. However the reduced retirement option for those on active duty orders greater than 90 days reduces your retirement date. Everyone in my unit has had their retirement date reduced -- some of them as early as age 55. Mine is age 58 and I've been a slacker in the unit.

Another thing he can't model, you can use 1000 X pay rate to get a realistic airline salary. However he can't forecast windfalls. For example, last year through hard work and using the contract to my advantage, I nearly doubled my previous airline W2 and still made $30k in the reserve. That's not going to happen if you stay on active duty. There is no incentive for working harder in the military as it all pays the same.

In one year I paid off the house and put a nice chunk into mutual funds all while maxing out the 401k.

Get out now. Go to a Guard/Reserve unit near you and enjoy the best of both worlds.

I was passed over to O-5 and subsequently promoted on a supplemental board. It happens but in my particular case there was a provable case of malfeasance on the part of AFPC which probably isn't the norm. While waiting on my supplemental board I spent a year as a passed over major. Once you're passed over to O-5 you become persona non grata. Unless you really are the exception to the rule, you won't be able to get the kind of OPR fodder required to get promoted above the zone. Commanders will lie to you about your chances for promotion since they still want a viable worker bee. Be prepared for stellar positions such as assistant squadron CFC officer and unit Wingman Day vice coordinator.

The airline hiring boom is happening NOW. It won't last forever. It began in 2014 and will probably last about a decade (sans Black Swan, NK nukes the south and all bets are off) -- one year after your bud will retire as a passed over O-4. He can get in on the 1st half of the wave and make captain at DAL in 4 months, or he can get on in year 9 of 10 and sling gear for 20 of his 25 years until mandatory retirement. Why are we even having this discussion?

I'll let others do the heavy lifting on whether sticking it out in the reserves/guard until 20 is smart. I am on check of the month club. Between that and Tricare it's a pretty good deal so I don't scoff at somebody wanting to knock out 20 with 70% of their time done. Perhaps get hired, get off probation, then get an AGR and drop some mil-leave? IDK, I went AD the entire way. Good luck.

Good Lord, is this truth. I had a friend/colleague give the OG/CC a recommendation that I go to Stan/Eval. His response? "He isn't promotable. We need someone in there that can get promoted."

It didn't matter that I was one of the more qualified people.

Currently an O-5, 21 months from starting terminal leave. I've heard if you're close to an active retirement and get out, that'll be a red flag for hiring as they expect you to instantly drop mil leave for active orders. Anyone lately run into this situation? I probably won't do it and just wait for 20 yrs, but damn, leaving right now is sure tempting.

That might be the norm in Fighter Command, but that was not my experience, whatsoever.

Not anymore. The break even point at most airlines is year 2, and at year 3 you start losing money by doing mil over airline.