08-14-2021Quote:
The other part of the equation is the amount of hiring at Alaska. This is a bit of a wild card, but absent growth, there won’t be much hiring. Retirements won’t help much either. It’s a young pilot group relatively speaking. Growth and higher attrition due to pilots leaving Alaska for other airlines would really be the only factor that can keep the Pathway Program moving at a good pace.
My honest guess(it’s a total guess and I hope I’m wrong on this) is that we will see some movement over the next couple of years. The pathway will look pretty good for awhile maybe even getting some pilots from Horizon to Alaska within 4 years of their hire date but then the late sign ups will start coming in and that number will begin to go more into the 5 to 7 year range or more.
Hopefully some of you can convince me otherwise.
Though none of us have that magic 8 ball, that’s a very realistic outlook on the pathway list. I think anyone hired after 2019 will be at QX 6+ years waiting for a slot. I’m sure most will just jump on other opportunities in the meantime.Originally Posted by Starchkr
I hate to sound like a negative Nancy here but I have serious doubts about the 2 to 3 year projection. The reason? There are lots of senior pilots at Horizon that don’t want to go to Alaska but that group has been bypassed more or less at this point. When you look at the list it goes from about 4.5 years of seniority or so down to less than 1 year of seniority with only a couple hundred signed up. I think a lot more will sign up as they approach the seniority they need to go to Alaska so the current numbers are very misleading. The other part of the equation is the amount of hiring at Alaska. This is a bit of a wild card, but absent growth, there won’t be much hiring. Retirements won’t help much either. It’s a young pilot group relatively speaking. Growth and higher attrition due to pilots leaving Alaska for other airlines would really be the only factor that can keep the Pathway Program moving at a good pace.
My honest guess(it’s a total guess and I hope I’m wrong on this) is that we will see some movement over the next couple of years. The pathway will look pretty good for awhile maybe even getting some pilots from Horizon to Alaska within 4 years of their hire date but then the late sign ups will start coming in and that number will begin to go more into the 5 to 7 year range or more.
Hopefully some of you can convince me otherwise.
