My view of this affair is this:
1. The rule change is going to happen, with or without ALPA, IPA, APA, or any other airline union involvement. Pure and simple.
2. The major congressional players who, in the past, have been proponents of leaving the Age 60 rule in effect have virtually all abandoned their past position and are now promoting the passage of the rule change.
3. ALPA, which has long been an opponent of changing the Age 60 rule is now being seen as acting in an obstructionist manner.
4. Although ALPA (imho) probably still doesn't want the retirement age to change, they realize that it's better to be on the train when it leaves the station (when the rule is changed), than to be stranded at trackside when the train pulls out, for places yet unknown. At least if they were on the train, they might have the ability to influence the trains destination somewhat.
5. FedEx is now probably the largest contributor to ALPA's coffers, and as such, should and probably does carry a lot of weight with ALPA National.
6. Our MEC chairman is (I believe) the longest standing member of his peer group at ALPA National.
7. FedEx has by far the most over-60 guys still "flying", so the company will have to develop a plan as to how to deal with them, once the rule changes. Traditional wisdom says that some of these guys will be allowed to return to a window seat that their seniority allows them to hold, while others (probably those closer to the new Age 65 cutoff) will be offered passover pay. My understanding of the FAA's term "current", is that someone with less than 2 years out of a seat, is still "current" in that seat, for training purposes. Unrealistic, probably. Some degree of retraining will need to occur, and some will make it and some, probably won't. Same as the rest of the population.
8. New aircraft will continue to show up on the property, thus facilitating upgrades and transitions, although as everyone realizes, at a slightly slower rate, due in part to the rule change.
9. Guys will continue to "medical out", both over 60 guys as well as under 60 guys.
10. Yes, this is a windfall for the older guys, but not just those guys who are already over 60. We have a lot of "younger" older guys, guys who have had previous careers and have been here only a few years. They too will have the opportunity for a longer career. In fact, they might be part of the "silent minority."
1. There's plenty more, but it's time to go cut the grass. For those of you advocating leaving ALPA, Don't. You'll still have to pay dues, but you'll have no say at all in the runnings of your union. At least now, you have the right to have your voice heard. Maybe not listened to, but at least heard. I believe ALPA is doing what they must to be part of the "solution", instead of being part of the "problem."