Crew manpower planning ... 3, 6 and long-term! WoW!!

It’s not nearly as bad as i was expecting. Opening CLT 737/777 and MIA 787. Down roughly 1000 pilots to 11k active.

250ish captain vacancies. This could have been much, much worse.

What’s your definition of bad? Look at their numbers for Nov (10,000), Feb (10,114) and July 2021 (10,997)..

12,086 total pilots in September 2020, 10,060 in November 2020, 10,114 in February 2021, 10,997 in July 2021. Did I read that right?

Also, what's the August 2020 bidder headcount number (12,674) account for? Are they saying that that's how many total bidders we currently will have in Aug, after accounting for retirements, & VPLOA's (so we realistically only have 12,674 active pilots on that date, as opposed to the 15-thousand that seniority list on aapilots says)? Or is that how many will be able to bid, and anyone not under that 12674 seniority number will be furloughed?

what is the plain English version (opinion) of what will happen Oct-1.

Based on this? More than likely no furloughs. For the time being.

Total headcount August is 12,674 - November @ 10,060 = 2614 too many. Recalls maybe after that low tide? Just a quick overview and not figuring early outs/retirements into it.

I’m trying to make sense out of the same exact thing. Are those forecast numbers how many we will actually have in those statuses with everyone here accounted for, or how many are required in those statuses, and anyone extra is out of a spot? We usually carry 10-15 percent more pilots total active than the total forecast numbers due to the perpetual training bubble and such, so the numbers could be worse either way, but it’s be nice to have it cleared up.

Did you see United’s displacement? This is way more mellow than theirs. The training float alone from this bid could easily eat up the 1000 person overage for July 2021.

Don’t work at United.. but.. do you have their displacement details?